Why Bayer Leverkusen Are Better Than a Hypothetical Team With Messi and Ronaldo
Start here: We didn’t expect anyone to be unbeaten at this point in the season.
Then go here: If, in August, I told you that it was going to happen, then how many teams would you have guessed before you got to the one owned by a pharmaceutical company and managed by Xabi Alonso?
I wrote about the insanity of Bayer Leverkusen’s 48-game unbeaten run:
But just for fun, let's say we had a randomly chosen team of these players: Gianluigi Buffon in goal, Paolo Maldini at left-back, Virgil van Dijk and Franco Baresi in the center of defense, and Philipp Lahm on the right. At the base of midfield, drop in Sergio Busquets, and then throw Patrick Vieira and N'Golo Kanté in front of them. Lionel Messi is out right, Cristiano Ronaldo out left, and the Brazilian Ronaldo is playing up top. All of these players will be in their primes. They'll all be willing defenders, they'll all be perfectly healthy for the entire season, and they'll all be managed by Pep Guardiola.
We'll throw this hypothetical team into the 2023-24 Bundesliga, give them Leverkusen's schedule, and say there was a 90% chance of them winning each game they played and a 5% chance of drawing. Given the low-scoring and relatively random nature of soccer, those numbers would make this the greatest soccer team of all time by a significant margin. (For reference, Manchester City's betting odds in their upcoming game -- a near fait accompli against a Fulham team with nothing to play for -- still only give them a 75% chance of winning and a 15% chance of drawing.) Were this the case, though, their likelihood of making it this far in the season without a loss would still be just 19%.
Happy Tuesday, Knicks fans.