Friends don’t let friends buy strikers in January.
Take it from The Athletic’s Jack Pitt-Brooke, who wrote this a couple weeks ago:
“The biggest spike in demand is for strikers in January window,” says [21st Club’s Omar] Chaudhuri. “But about half of all the strikers that are bought in January don’t even score a goal between then and the end of the season. So this idea that you can just get a guy in who will score you 10 goals is a complete fallacy.”
Strikers make up 20 per cent of January signings in the big five leagues, according to 21st Club. But only 14 per cent of those strikers scored five or more league goals during their first half-season, and 55 per cent of them fail to score a single league goal.
The only January arrival in recent years who has made it to 10 goals in the second half of the season was Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. But he was an established 28-year-old star, and Arsenal paid Borussia Dortmund £56m for him in January 2018.
“Aubameyang is the only one who’s done it, which goes to show,” Chaudhuri says, “you need to go for the complete no-brainer, otherwise you’re not going to get a result.” Even strikers who turned out to be successful at their clubs — Luis Suarez at Liverpool, Edin Dzeko at Manchester City, each arriving in January 2011 — managed four and six goals respectively in their first half-season with their new club.
Of course, it’s no surprise that so many clubs are scrambling from strikers come January. With relegation or a league title or a Champions League place in reach, it’s the last time clubs are allowed to make improvements to their rosters before the season ends. And goal-scorers provide the most valuable, quantifiable skill in the sport: they, uh, score goals. As Chaudhuri told Pitt-Brooke, a one-goal improvement is worth a little over half-a-point -- nowhere near as much as conventional wisdom might suggest, but still more value (as far as we’re aware) than most other players can provide. Except, it also makes sense that most strikers who move in January don’t make much of a difference for their new teams: If he was making a difference for his old team, why would they be letting him go in the middle of the season?
So, most of the strikers mentioned in January rumors have some kind of flaw. Maybe they’re old and out of favor -- like, say, Chelsea’s Olivier Giroud, who is 33 and has scored nine goals in the last four Premier League seasons ... combined. Or maybe they’re just not playing well -- like, say, Lyon’s Mousa Dembele, whose shot-production has fallen from 0.65 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes (second in Ligue 1 last season behind only Kylian Mbappe) to 0.30 npxG per 90 (19th in Ligue 1). In other words, most of the strikers who move in January aren’t Timo Werner.
The RB Leipzig striker has been linked with Chelsea over the past month or so after their transfer ban was lifted, and Liverpool were also recently added to the mix. But I’d be shocked if he actually moved before the summer, for two reasons: 1) because he’s a superstar, and 2) his superstardom has his team at the top of the Bundesliga and on to the Round of 16 in the Champions League.
Two players in Germany have more than 10 non-penalty goals, two players in Germany are averaging more than 0.75 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes, two players in Germany have more than eight non-penalty expected goals, and two players in Germany are averaging more than 0.6 npxG per 90. Those two players are Bayern Munich’s Robert Lewandowski and Werner; they’re blowing everyone else out of the water. Per FBRef:
There’s one main difference, though: Werner’s also carrying the creative load for Leipzig. He’s second in the league -- behind Lewandowski’s teammate Thomas Muller, who is officially back! -- in total expected assists (5.9) and fifth in xA per 90 (0.35). Despite taking 4.28 shots per 90 minutes -- second in Germany behind Lewandowski’s 4.58 -- he’s also been able to facilitate at an elite level. Add it all up, and Werner has the second-best npxG+A rate (1.08) of any player in Europe’s Big Five leagues. The only player ahead of him is Mbappe at a freakish 1.38, but who plays in an easier league and for a team with a massive financial and talent advantage over their opponents. Much like Mbappe, Werner is completely devastating in space:
Forget any of thos stipulations, though. Mbappe might be the purest, most easily projectable prospect in the history of this sport. He’s already absolutely wrecking shit at Messi-anic levels -- both in France and in the Champions League -- and he only turned 21 a couple weeks ago. He won’t hit his peak years until after the next World Cup. I’ve yet to see someone oversell how good he is; it’s impossible to do. While Werner doesn’t have the same track record and while he’s nearly three years older than Mbappe, he’s the guy right behind him right now. He’s been really good for a while now -- top 10 in Germany in NPG+A/90 in each of the previous three seasons -- and he’s approaching the age (turns 24 in March) when players make the metaphorical leap. Sky, meet Timo.
If someone has the opportunity to sign Werner in January, they absolutely should. But in reality I doubt they will. Werner’s not the kind of talent any team can afford to flip mid-season. No, he’s the kind of player that every team in the world should be trying to find a place for.