What Happens When Moneyball Works Too Well?
My latest ESPN piece went up earlier today. I wrote about how the Billy Beane-led ownership group at Toulouse, who play Liverpool in the Europa League on Thursday, had to relinquish control of the club because they won too many games last season:
The next season, they got more of the little decisions right, won Ligue 2 outright, and produced a better goal differential (plus-49) than the second- and third-place teams combined. The following year was supposed to be a consolidation campaign: figure out which players to move on without weakening the team too much and establish Toulouse as a Ligue 1-quality team that was only at risk of relegation if a bunch of things went seriously wrong.
Toulouse did that, finishing 12th in their first year in Ligue 1 under the new ownership. But then they did another thing, too: they won the French Cup. They didn't just win it, either. They won 5-1 and they won against the team, Nantes, that had kept them out of Ligue 1 two years prior. It was the culmination of an alternative, analytical team-building approach -- but not because they had a trophy to show for it. No, simply because it had to be.
"The minute we won the cup, I had to totally disconnect from Toulouse," Bornn said. "It's totally independent."
I also made a brief appearance on ESPN FC Live to chat about the Champions League: