Why Lionel Messi Will and Won't Win the Champions League
I’m back — sorry for the weeklong silence. I was in London last week for work. Also, I saw Darwin Nunez score a goal … IN PERSON. It was the most “10/10, would recommend” experience that I’ve ever rated 10/10 and would also recommend. If you can do it, please do it.
As for recent work, I previewed the Champions League knockout rounds today:
The worst pressing team to win one of the previous 13 European Cups was the Real Madrid side of two seasons ago. They allowed opponents to complete 83% of their passes, and we saw Madrid struggle in that regard throughout the knockout stages. They went on arguably the most impressive run the competition has ever seen, taking down PSG then defending champs Chelsea then Manchester City and Liverpool when both were truly at the height of their powers.
If you strip away the jerseys -- the names on the front and the back -- then it really was one of the greatest-ever underdog runs. In the knockout rounds, Madrid allowed opponents to complete 88% of their passes, and Madrid conceded 135 shots while attempting 71. It was a once-in-a-lifetime run of good bounces and high-leverage execution; it's just that it all happened to go in favor of the most successful team in the history of the competition.
Were Madrid to win again this season, it seems like they might need to try to follow that model once more. They're allowing opponents to complete 85% of their passes, which isn't just high for a Champions League winner. It's the seventh-highest mark for any team in Europe's Big Five leagues.
Last week, I previewed Inter Miami’s season, which, thanks to the MLS playoff structure, has a much, much higher floor than you might think:
Although there would be very real potential for a disastrous season for Miami within the competitive structure of European structure -- a couple of injuries and, boom, you've lost so many games you can't finish any higher than sixth -- it's really hard to see this team not at least making the playoffs even in the absolute worst-case scenario season where everyone gets injured and they all hit a performance cliff too. Last season, 1.26 points per game was enough to make the postseason. That's bottom-half-of-the-table form in any major European league.
Bye!