5 Reasons Why RB Leipzig Will Win the Bundesliga
Now is not the time for reasonable predictions!
You can find primers everywhere. I’ve told you who you -- yes, you -- should root for. We already did a podcast previewing the return of the Bundesliga season. And so today, I’m gonna make the title case for a plucky little group of underdogs (who are funded by a billion-dollar energy drink conglomerate and hated so much by German fans that a severed bull’s head was once thrown onto the field during one of their matches).
Julian Nagelsmann and RB Leipzig are currently one point back of Borussia Dortmund and five points back of Bayern Munich. Over at Fanduel, Bayern are -500 favorites to win their eighth-straight title, while Dortmund are second-favorites at +500. Leipzig, meanwhile, are down at +850, which implies odds of around nine percent. At the very least, Leipzig should have somewhat equal odds with Dortmund. Plus, given the inherent weirdness of what the league is about to undertake -- isolated players, no fans, abnormal training procedures, two months without playing real games, the potential allowance of two extra subs, the possibility that this things never reaches its conclusion, and plenty more -- it seems to me like a weird outcome is more likely than normal. So, let’s talk about why this specifically weird outcome might happen.
They’re young.
Remember when you were 12? You’d play three games of whatever sport you were playing in one day, you’d eat hot dogs and Airheads in between each one, and then you’d invite your teammates over to keep playing whatever game you were playing back at your house -- and then you’d go back and do the same thing on Sunday? Just thinking about that made both of my calves cramp up. Get me some Maalox, too.
The point is: younger athletes should be better able to withstand a breakdown in routine. We’ve entered an era in which star athletes can keep dominating deep into their 30s -- LeBron, Tom Brady, Cristiano Ronaldo, James Milner -- and almost every still-great 30-something player is renowned for an obsessive, all-year-round fitness and dietary regime that’s designed around the ebbs and flows of their respective seasons. Well, those ebbs and flows have just turned into a tidal wave. Perhaps older players will be helped by the extra time off, but younger squads seem like they’ll be better equipped to deal with the layoff and whatever it is to come.
Among the 100 most valuable clubs in the world, as determined by their collective transfer values from Transfermarkt, Leipzig are the youngest.
Here’s a slightly prettier visualization of that fact:
Leipzig have one player who’s clearly beyond his peak (24 to 29) years, but he’s barely featured. Their oldest key contributor is Peter Gulasci, who looks exactly like Prince Charles and recently turned 30. However, keepers tend to peak later than field players. Everyone else is either in his prime or not even there yet.
Their keeper -- he’s great.
Speaking of Gulasci, he’s been the best shot-stopper in the Bundesliga since the beginning of last season. Per Stats Perform, this is a comparison of the goals a keeper has allowed with the goals he was expected to allow when adjusted for the quality of the shot. Above the line, and you’ve saved goals above average; below it, and you’ve allowed more goals than average.
You’ll see an RB logo and a Borussia Monchengladbach badge way off the line while everyone else is clustered around it. Gulasci and Gladbach’s Yann Sommer have been in a class of their own since 2018 as the former has conceded 15.91 goals below expectation, while the latter is not too far behind at 13.79. No one else is above five.
As Nageslmann recently said about the resumption of the season: “These nine games are like the Euros, and we want to win them!” The two kinds of players who can have an outsize effect on a team’s fortunes in a shortened, tournament-style competition are the ones who score the goals and the ones who stop them. Get yourself a hot keeper or a hot striker, and over a small sample of games, it doesn’t really matter how the rest of your team plays.
Their striker -- he’s great, too.
Across Europe's Big Five leagues, only Bayern Munich’s Robert Lewandowski (22) has scored more non-penalty goals than Timo Werner’s 18 goals this season. And only Lewa, Roma’s Edin Dzeko, and PSG’s Kylian Mbappe have generated more non-penalty expected goals than Werner’s 14.53. He barely ever shoots from outside the box and pretty much all of his goals come from the sweet spot in the center of the penalty area. Per Stats Perform: green are goals, and the size of the circle indicates the xG value of the shot.
Add in creativity, and only Lionel Messi and Borussia Dortmund’s Jadon Sancho have more than Werner’s 25 non-penalty goals+assists. (Lewandwoski is on 25, too. He’s still pretty good, you guys.) In terms of expected assists, Werner’s sixth in the Bundesliga -- behind Bayern’s duo of Serge Gnabry and Thomas Muller, Sancho, Werner’s teammate Christoper Nkunku, and our man from Tuesday’s newsletter, Filip Kostic -- and he’s 16th in Europe. Thanks to impressive top-end speed and savvy movement, Werner’s constantly getting into great positions -- whether to finish off a move or set up a teammate to do the same.
If the betting markets are to be believed, Werner’s not long for Leipzig (and is likely headed to Liverpool), but for now, they’re still employing one of the few attackers out there who can single-handedly flip a season on its head.
They’re different.
Nagelsmann is only 32 years old, and he’s already one of the best coaches in the world. You read the quote from him above; he’s clearly thinking about this nine-game stretch differently, and there’s a chance we see something totally new from Leipzig once the games resume.
All of the Red Bull teams are known for a vertical, high-pressure, high-pace style. In the prior three seasons, Leipzig’s passing percentage never broke into the 80s, and this year it’s up to 82. That’s not an indicator of better players, but rather a more patient, less risky passing approach implemented by Nagelsmann. Their pressing (passes allowed per defensive action) has also declined significantly, from an average of 9.78 in the prior three seasons to 11.68 this year. Their average possession lasts for much longer now, and the speed at which they move the ball up the field has declined significantly, too.
However, Nagelsmann hasn’t created just another possession-dominant top team, and I think that’s important. The upstarts who have won leagues in recent memory -- Monaco, Leicester City, and Atletico Madrid -- have all played unique tactical styles that gave them an unforeseen edge. Despite weaning RB off the Red Bull, Nagelsmann's side remains stylistically unique. Among the top 10 teams in FiveThirtyEight’s global club rankings, Leipzig are last in pass completion percentage. They also cross the ball more often than any of the other nine. And while they’ve toned things down a bit compared to their old selves, Leipzig’s possessions are shorter and they move up the field faster than any of the other elite teams.
Given the uncertainty and unpredictability inherent in the next nine games, that ability to play multiple styles -- the ramped-up Red Bull approach, and the more patient Nagelsmann-inspired tweak -- seems like it should serve as another advantage for Leipzig.
Their schedule is easy.
Forget that both the consultancy 21st Club and FiveThirtyEight rank Leipzig ahead of Dortmund and as the seventh-best team in the world, according to their underlying metrics. Please ignore the fact that only PSG, Liverpool, and Bayern Munich have better per-game goal differentials. And instead focus on this: Leipzig have ONE reamining game left against a team with a positive goal differential. Meanwhile, Bayern play Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, Gladbach, and Wolfsburg. And Dortmund play Wolfsburg, Bayern, and Leipzig. Plus, although Schalke aren’t on the positive side of the goal ledger, this weekend’s match is one of those anything-can-happen rivalry games for Dortmund.
Per an analysis by 21st Club, Leipzig actually have the second-easiest schedule in the entire league:
Leipzig really do seem uniquely positioned to take advantage of a number of the competitive quirks that this strange nine-game endeavor is likely to present. Of course, it’s still a longshot. You’ll see those six-percent title odds odds suggesting as much. Five points is a lot of points, and Bayern Munich really might just be the best team in the world. But that was in the old version of soccer. Whatever the Bundesliga puts out there over the next few weeks -- it’s going to be something we’ve never seen before. So, why not the energy-drink guys with the millennial manager?
Red bull gives you wingers!!!