How a Teenage Winger Turned Into One of the Premier League's Best Fullbacks

Bakayo Saka, future superstar?

We’re way past the $4,000 in donations now. Love that, and love all of you guys. A reader named Kenneth asked me to write about “future superstar Bukayo Saka”. Here I am, writing about (potential) future superstar Bukayo Saka.

It’s almost been another lost year at the Emirates. Last season, Arsenal made it to the Europa League final and finished one point out of fourth, but those results flattered their performances. In Unai Emery’s first season, they struggled to control games against even the weakest teams in the league, and they got by on the excellent finishing of their two excellent strikers, in addition to a career year from Bernd Leno in goal. They finished the season with a plus-22 goal differential, but their xG differential, per Stats Perform data, was only plus-6.42 (eighth-best in the league) across 38 games.

In Unai Emery’s second season, well, Arsenal continued to struggle to control games against even the weakest teams in the league, the finishing disappeared, and the goalkeeping wasn’t quite as excellent. He lost his job the day after Thanksgiving and was replaced by Manchester City assistant Mikel Arteta about a month later. While things certainly don’t feel as hectic and directionless anymore -- the constant halftime subs and wholesale mid-game tactical adjustments have disappeared, and the revolving door on the doghouse has stopped spinning -- the on-field performance hasn’t been much better, if at all. Under Emery this season, the team averaged 1.52 xG per match and conceded 1.79. Under Arteta, the chance creation has dropped off (1.37 xG) and they’re taking the second-fewest shots in the league since he took over, but the defense has improved (1.69). 

(The results have been better under Arteta, but if you need an explanation for why xG is a better predictor than wins and losses, allow me to direct you to the previous two paragraphs.)

It’s way too early to judge Arteta; you don’t hire a first-time manager in the middle of the season and expect him to immediately fix the underlying issue that caused you to, you know, take the drastic step of firing the previous manager in the middle of the season. In a world where the rest of the season gets played and Manchester City’s ban from Champions League next season also gets upheld, the Gunners, who are five points back of fifth with a game in hand, theoretically have a shot at finishing in the fifth and final CL slot. I say “theoretically” because, as I wrote about for ESPN last week, the table doesn’t change much over the last 10 games. On top of that, the team has been mediocre at doing the thing that predicts future success -- i.e. creating better chances than your opponent -- and all of the teams ahead of them in the table, sans Tottenham, have significantly better underlying numbers during the Arteta era. FiveThirtyEight puts their odds of finishing fifth at five percent. Sounds about right to me.

Now that we’ve sufficiently lowered expectations, here’s something to get excited about: Arteta has played some of the kids, and at least one of ‘em looks like he’s gonna be really good.

Since Arteta took over, seven players aged 23 and under have played more than 200 domestic minutes. The leader among the kids is also the youngest of the bunch. Under his new manager, only the starting keeper and the team’s de facto veteran core (David Luiz, Granit Xhaka, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and Mesut Ozil) have played more than Bakayo Saka. Among players with at least 600 league minutes this season, only club-record signing Nicolas Pepe is assisting at a higher rate (actual or expected) or completing more dribbles. Not bad for a winger-turned fullback who only turned 18 in September, huh?

Saka came up the youth ranks as an attacker -- and that might still be his best position -- but injuries and inconsistency ahead of him on the depth chart forced him into the lineup as a left back. Given that, you might expect some attacking brilliance coupled with lots of defensive lapses, but it’s almost been the opposite. Per the site Smarterscout, Saka’s attacking output -- standardized for his position -- is in the 56th percentile, but the quality of his defending is up in the 70th percentile. (Both ratings take into account how a player’s actions influence the likelihood of his team scoring or conceding a goal. Check out the methodology here.) In other words, he’s a teenager who might be playing out of position, and yet he’s been better-than-average in arguably the toughest league in the world. Frankly, it’s rare that any player at any age hits both of those benchmarks at left back. The only other 23-and-under players to do it since 2016-17: Achraf Hakimi for Borussia Dortmund lat season, Leicester City’s Ben Chilwell in 17-18, Olexandr Zinchenko in each of the past two years at City, Renan Lodi for Atletico Madrid this year, and Sergio Reguillon for Sevilla this season. That’s two big-time Real Madrid loanee-prospects, a starter for England, a guy who was able to earn consistent minutes for some of the best teams in Premier League history, and another one who’s been deemed good enough for the devilish demands of Diego Simeone. If Saka follows any of those paths, that’s a massive success for the Arsenal academy.

On top of all that, the fact that his defense is coming along quicker than his attacking play feels especially promising. Everyone thought he was gonna be an attacker, so it’s not unreasonable to expect the attacking side of his game to start picking up, too. He lit up the lesser competition in the Europa League, leading players who played at least 500 minutes in expected assists per 90 minutes. And although his overall effect on the team’s attacking performance hasn’t been too far above average, while at left back he’s averaging basically the same amount of expected assists as Liverpool’s Andy Robertson, and he’s doing it on a much worse team. (Robertson’s attacking performance, of course, rates in the 91st percentile this season per SmarterScout. He’s a decent player, it turns out.)

That Saka is even just getting significant Premier League minutes at age 18 is enough to suggest a promising career. Hell, since 2010, only nine other players have played more minutes than Saka before the age of 19: Luke Shaw, Ryan Sessegnon, Jack Rodwell, Raheem Sterling, Phil Jones, Jack Wilshere, Tom Davies, Cardiff’s Declan John, and Marcus Rashford. But Saka isn’t just playing or playing out of position, he’s clearly adding value to his team every time he steps on the field. With a player his age, that almost never happens.

There are still plenty of issues throughout Arsenal’s team. Central defense remains a problem, and it’s only going to get worse as they all get older. Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette are aging out or already have aged out of their primes. Mesut Ozil might finally be washed. Pepe is a ways away from living up to his price tag. And the club-wide recruitment strategy looks way too much like a game of rolodex roulette. But fullback has suddenly become one of the most important positions in the sport, and amidst all the other uncertainties at the club, Arsenal might now have one of those spots sewn up for the next decade. That is, if they want to keep Saka there and if he wants to say. After all, his contract runs out at the end of next season.