They’re in the “primetime” slot again this week. The title race is over. Bayern have a 99-percent chance of winning, per FiveThirtyEight. Meanwhile, today’s opponents, Fortuna Dussledorf, have a 40-percent chance of being relegated. The goal-differential difference between the two teams is, uh, 75 goals. But let’s still watch anyway. Feel free to ask me anything. I’ll be here right around kick-off.
The inclusion of xG on the broadcast is cool: 0.62 on that Lewandowski goal. It'd be interesting if that start using it on shots that don't go in -- put a finer point on the "he shoulda scored"-isms.
OK -- that's it for today! Thanks to all who popped in, despite the terrible game and the termination of the title race. We'll do it again soon. Have great weekends, all.
Kinda a Bayern destroys Dusseldorf question but at this point if you are Bayern's manager do you a) rest the stars or b) treat this as an extra advanced live fire training section with the presumption you are going to need to get these guys up to Champions League speed at some point . . .
The players aren't at max fitness right now. I think you could figure out fitness-buildup pattern that would have everyone close to peaking when the CL comes back. But, well, 1) we don't know when it's coming back, so you can't really plan. And 2) I'm not sure it's actually coming back.
Any observations about who this long layoff "helped?" My honest initial observation is that it's been pretty unpredictable and we can't really guess about what will happen in the other three major leagues, but maybe you caught on to something else.
Honestly, my main observation is: Jadon Sancho looked like he didn't work out for two months. Beyond that? If you just look at how teams have performed, it's not too different from the way they were performing before the layoff. I guess I was expecting to see a lot more unpredictability in terms of results, but I don't think that's really happened.
The only "good" teams that seem to have come out flat are Schalke and Gladbach. That makes me think it's just random sequencing, since there could not be more opposite teams than Schalke and Gladbach.
If I were picking the team? I think I'd go with the same back four they've been running. I'd put Thiago in for Goretzka. I'd slide Gnabry to the right, and play Coutinho on the left. For 20-12, replace Coutinho with Sane.
In Germany its very common that the match ends punctually if the result is so clear. Don't know if there is an underlying reason. I guess its just custom here
If he's not gonna stay and the title is already wrapped up, then there's no point. But he would be useful in a Champions League (if that happens). He's a great player.
No doubt. I had been assuming from Coutinho's agent's statements that he was basically ruled out from returning next season, but apparently that's not quite true?
Looks like Bayern said they could loan him again next season. I don't know. Tricky situation for him. It was already hard enough for big clubs to shift on these out-of-favor, highly-paid, not-young tweener attacking players, and then the pandemic happened. Another loan might just be the easiest thing for all parties.
One of the comments on the Bayern board about extending Coutinho for another year is "Why do that? We already paid enough for him that we could've made Perisic permanent, I don't know why Coutinho is the expensive one."
Any sense on the clubs agreeing on how to work out the contracts for on-loan players in July/August games? Perisic and Coutinho aren’t going to be there next year but would be great depth in a compressed Champions League.
In hindsight yea, but I’m sure it’s hard to push back when people are putting that kind of value on you. That being said, I don’t think he’s ever played a full season at his supposed potential level.
So, Nubel started finally for Schalke, because they're freefalling, and they still lost. They're safe and all, but what's the bad juju from all this Nubel stuff gonna do? AKA, when does our guy Weston move to greener pastures?
I mean it's a bit of a catch-22 for McKennie right? Needs to show he merits a move to greener pastures through his play, tough to play well/show out when the teams this bleeeh. That being said Shalke, while a bit of a tirefire, are safe so continuing to start for a Bundesliga side at 21 is still good.
Picking the tiniest of nits, but that chance Fortuna just had off the free kick, plus the 2 Frankfurt corners in... I'm sure on the season their set piece defending is fine, but is it leaky? I'd say since they've been back, that's been the only defensive blemish (actually, it literally is the only goals they've given up)
You're right in the sense that this is potentially a thing that they're not the best in the Bundesliga at. But they're fourth in terms of their xG differential on set pieces since play restarted.
Ryan, assuming the Champions League happens in August, do you see an advantage for teams from different counties based on their domestic schedules? PSG will be super rusty, the German teams will have had a month off while the English, Spanish and Italian teams may have just finished their seasons. I can’t make up my mind which lead in would be preferred.
I guess I would take PSG, just because it does seem like we've at least seen a slight up-tick in injuries since the Bundesliga returned. The other leagues are gonna be playing similarly compressed schedules, and I'm not convinced that most Spanish/English/Italian clubs are as advanced in their fitness-monitoring as the average German club. So, just based on that, PSG don't seem as likely to lose a key player to a soft-tissue injury.
So Alba was considered one of the best LB’s in the world and now he’s a CB with.. a guy who is being considered one of the best upcoming LB’s in the world in Davies. And Hernandez is a converted LB playing at CB. Bayren the FB whisperers.
Also, they may get big Nic Sule back for the champions league, haven’t heard how his knee rehab is going, but was supposed to be ready for the Euros before they were moved.
So now that Bayern have essentially won the league, what are the meaningful races left? Any Europe spots? Who else is in relegation danger? (Also, didn’t Germany decide to only promote?)
The top-four race is pretty wide open: four points separate second-place Dortmund and fifth-place Mochengladbach. So, any of those teams -- plus Leipzig and Leverkusen -- could finish anywhere from second to Not in the Champions League. Dortmund and RBL and significantly better teams than the other two, so they're both probably safe, but at the very least it'll be a battle between Leverkusen and Mochengladbach.
As for relegation, it's still there. Bottom two get auto-relegated, while third-to-last plays a playoff against third-place in the second-division. That's the spot Dussledorf are currently in.
The inclusion of xG on the broadcast is cool: 0.62 on that Lewandowski goal. It'd be interesting if that start using it on shots that don't go in -- put a finer point on the "he shoulda scored"-isms.
OK -- that's it for today! Thanks to all who popped in, despite the terrible game and the termination of the title race. We'll do it again soon. Have great weekends, all.
We get English and Italian soccer in <3 weeks, y'all. Stay safe and strong.
In case anyone (Sam) wants to take one for the team ... https://twitter.com/Pinnacle/status/1266753741899915264
Team Sam let’s goooooooo
Our guy probably took Fortuna +3, knowing his luck
Not enough Goretzka slander in the chat today, guys.
I was gonna say he didn't start, but he did and that was just his invisibility cloak tricking me.
He's achieved a new level of invisibility.
He had a great interception then immediately turned the ball over
That's on you
If anyone is still here and has any non-“Bayern destroys Düsseldorf” Qs, then please ask away!
Kinda a Bayern destroys Dusseldorf question but at this point if you are Bayern's manager do you a) rest the stars or b) treat this as an extra advanced live fire training section with the presumption you are going to need to get these guys up to Champions League speed at some point . . .
The players aren't at max fitness right now. I think you could figure out fitness-buildup pattern that would have everyone close to peaking when the CL comes back. But, well, 1) we don't know when it's coming back, so you can't really plan. And 2) I'm not sure it's actually coming back.
Stop stop they're already dead and need the gD
Any observations about who this long layoff "helped?" My honest initial observation is that it's been pretty unpredictable and we can't really guess about what will happen in the other three major leagues, but maybe you caught on to something else.
Honestly, my main observation is: Jadon Sancho looked like he didn't work out for two months. Beyond that? If you just look at how teams have performed, it's not too different from the way they were performing before the layoff. I guess I was expecting to see a lot more unpredictability in terms of results, but I don't think that's really happened.
The only "good" teams that seem to have come out flat are Schalke and Gladbach. That makes me think it's just random sequencing, since there could not be more opposite teams than Schalke and Gladbach.
My only clear thought is it helps anyone with big injuries. Like, Rashford is coming back for ManU, that's huge for them.
Yep, Lewandowski being back for Bayern, too.
What is Bayern's best 11 this year? And, projecting a Sane buy (I know, it's iffy), what is it for 20-21?
If I were picking the team? I think I'd go with the same back four they've been running. I'd put Thiago in for Goretzka. I'd slide Gnabry to the right, and play Coutinho on the left. For 20-12, replace Coutinho with Sane.
*20-21
Glad to see Bayern still set up the t mobile logo in the stands without fans
Another game with no injury time. I gotta look into this. What the hell?
There were two goals and a Dussledorf player had to be carried off due to an injury.
In this case, it probably was for the better
It has to be a "why, bother, it's a 3+ goal lead", plus "post-covid, let's play as little as justifiably possible", I'd guess
In Germany its very common that the match ends punctually if the result is so clear. Don't know if there is an underlying reason. I guess its just custom here
Can I ask you what your starting 11 of 21 and under talents would be?
Hmm -- might be cheating slightly, but I'l say:
Mbappe-Haaland-Sancho
Havertz
Odegaard-Camavigna
Davies-Upamecano-De Ligt-TAA
Donnarumma
Came up with like the same thing, had Frederico Valverde in CM.
Well I'm just glad that it appears no one bet the underdog in this match
Muller doing his best Perisic impression
Perisic would never take a shot from that close to the goal.
Great call
That was some goal. This Bayern team just grinds you down
Is Coutinho hurt or has Flick just given up on him? He hasn’t even been on the bench the last couple games.
He had ankle surgery late last month. Still recovering: https://fcbayern.com/en/news/2020/04/philippe-coutinho-undergoes-successful-ankle-operation
Also he's not playing for Bayern again. It's not, like, official, but.
If he's not gonna stay and the title is already wrapped up, then there's no point. But he would be useful in a Champions League (if that happens). He's a great player.
No doubt. I had been assuming from Coutinho's agent's statements that he was basically ruled out from returning next season, but apparently that's not quite true?
Looks like Bayern said they could loan him again next season. I don't know. Tricky situation for him. It was already hard enough for big clubs to shift on these out-of-favor, highly-paid, not-young tweener attacking players, and then the pandemic happened. Another loan might just be the easiest thing for all parties.
Would another non-permanent loan make him Loantinho?
Bayern's system change with Flick really didn't help him. He obviously prefers Coman and Muller in the spots Coutinho would theoretically play.
One of the comments on the Bayern board about extending Coutinho for another year is "Why do that? We already paid enough for him that we could've made Perisic permanent, I don't know why Coutinho is the expensive one."
I'll hazard a guess there.
Any sense on the clubs agreeing on how to work out the contracts for on-loan players in July/August games? Perisic and Coutinho aren’t going to be there next year but would be great depth in a compressed Champions League.
FIFA says teams can extend deals through the end of their seasons, but I don't think they can do it unless the player agrees.
Coutinho made such a mistake leaving Pool
In hindsight yea, but I’m sure it’s hard to push back when people are putting that kind of value on you. That being said, I don’t think he’s ever played a full season at his supposed potential level.
Don’t think he has. He’s so talented. Would love to see what he could do in a team that leaned on him
The 4-2-3-1 with him, Firmino, Mane, and Salah only had 1/2 a season together but looked unstoppable offensively
XG finished as Bayern 3.03 - Dusseldorf 0.72
Also is there such a stat as wasted XG?
So, Nubel started finally for Schalke, because they're freefalling, and they still lost. They're safe and all, but what's the bad juju from all this Nubel stuff gonna do? AKA, when does our guy Weston move to greener pastures?
I tried to het the "McKennie to ManU" train in motion here: https://www.espn.com/soccer/english-premier-league/story/4086053/premier-league-scouting-why-identifying-similar-clubs-could-be-the-key-to-the-transfer-window
I mean it's a bit of a catch-22 for McKennie right? Needs to show he merits a move to greener pastures through his play, tough to play well/show out when the teams this bleeeh. That being said Shalke, while a bit of a tirefire, are safe so continuing to start for a Bundesliga side at 21 is still good.
Ahhhh the Breel Embolo conundrum.
Obviously a great start, but do we think Flick makes it to the end of his contract in 2023?
Outside of Pep, the previous Bayern manager to last for three seasons with Jupp Heynckes ... from 1987 to 1991. Smart money is on "no".
*was
Will be interesting to see if he changes anything during UCL play and if how he/management make decisions in the offseason
Longer term, how he/they manage the inevitable decline of Lewandowski will be really interesting, too.
Silly Ryan, Lewi does tiktok dances so he can absorb teenagers souls. Better than blood transfusions or HGH.
Picking the tiniest of nits, but that chance Fortuna just had off the free kick, plus the 2 Frankfurt corners in... I'm sure on the season their set piece defending is fine, but is it leaky? I'd say since they've been back, that's been the only defensive blemish (actually, it literally is the only goals they've given up)
You're right in the sense that this is potentially a thing that they're not the best in the Bundesliga at. But they're fourth in terms of their xG differential on set pieces since play restarted.
Ryan, assuming the Champions League happens in August, do you see an advantage for teams from different counties based on their domestic schedules? PSG will be super rusty, the German teams will have had a month off while the English, Spanish and Italian teams may have just finished their seasons. I can’t make up my mind which lead in would be preferred.
I guess I would take PSG, just because it does seem like we've at least seen a slight up-tick in injuries since the Bundesliga returned. The other leagues are gonna be playing similarly compressed schedules, and I'm not convinced that most Spanish/English/Italian clubs are as advanced in their fitness-monitoring as the average German club. So, just based on that, PSG don't seem as likely to lose a key player to a soft-tissue injury.
So Alba was considered one of the best LB’s in the world and now he’s a CB with.. a guy who is being considered one of the best upcoming LB’s in the world in Davies. And Hernandez is a converted LB playing at CB. Bayren the FB whisperers.
Most teams: there is a shortage of modern fullbacks and we have to pay a premium.
Bayer: Lolz we'll play six of em.
Ryan has written about their depth before. It’s almost comical at some positions.
Also, they may get big Nic Sule back for the champions league, haven’t heard how his knee rehab is going, but was supposed to be ready for the Euros before they were moved.
My favorite part of it is that they have Kimmich and Alaba, who are both top...five? at their side in the world, and they are like NOPE.
It’s just smart with large resources. But it’s exactly what’s going to cause a huge problem with non-super clubs as teams like them hoover up talent
So now that Bayern have essentially won the league, what are the meaningful races left? Any Europe spots? Who else is in relegation danger? (Also, didn’t Germany decide to only promote?)
The top-four race is pretty wide open: four points separate second-place Dortmund and fifth-place Mochengladbach. So, any of those teams -- plus Leipzig and Leverkusen -- could finish anywhere from second to Not in the Champions League. Dortmund and RBL and significantly better teams than the other two, so they're both probably safe, but at the very least it'll be a battle between Leverkusen and Mochengladbach.
As for relegation, it's still there. Bottom two get auto-relegated, while third-to-last plays a playoff against third-place in the second-division. That's the spot Dussledorf are currently in.