Same as it’s always been (for the last eight days). We’ll be in here at 3 PM EST, discussing the second Champions League semifinal. Lyon, per FiveThirtyEight’s predictive model, have an 18-percent chance of winning this match. Your stat-o-the-day: Only three teams in Europe’s Big Five leagues allowed fewer expected goals per game than Lyon this season, while only one team has created more xG per game than Bayern Munich. See you in about an hour.
I don't think there are many players, in the world, who can kick a ball harder with their left foot than Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane. They'll, uh, be on the same team next season.
Outside of the first 15-20 minutes, that was not particularly close. Hopefully those two semis were penance paid for prime-time final. My early lean is toward PSG -- look at that xG number for Lyon -- but I'm gonna have to dig into it a bit more before giving my OFFICIAL prediction. Thanks for following along as always. We'll do it on Sunday, too. Also, if you're a premium subscriber, be sure to send in your questions for the next mailbag! See y'all soon.
One more pre-game nugget, using Stats Perform's data:
-For Bayern against Barca, their possessions that led shots lasted on average for 10.4 seconds and 3.4 passes. For Lyon against City: 1.3 seconds and 0.6 passes.
Transitive property: Bayern Munich are three goals better than Lyon, who are two goals better than Manchester City, who are therefore one goal better than Barcelona.
OK, since this half is a wash: Lyon creating a couple opportunities but Bayern effectively possessing in their own half and sucking the life out of the game. Given the score and the, I guess, "respect" being shown to them does this mean that Lyon are better than Barcelona?
"Bayern surely cannot lose from two goals up" is bold-talk from Peter Drury. It's like he 1) hasn't watched Bayern's defense, and 2) hasn't watched Champions League soccer over the past 10 years.
I feel with Muller he's teh type of guy who after training dutifully completes and submits the rest of his players taxes like Andy Dufresne in Shawshank Redemption.
Are we all cheering for Bayern to set up the dream final or are we still cheering for the upset? Kind of annoyed we’re not watching City-Bayern right now.
Who's better Liverpool, Bayern or PSG? This may seem redundant being that Liverpool are out but there's a reason FIFA are creating the Club World Cup in China. Because these questions need to be answered with even more football.
If we assume that their attacking forces are a wash, both the eye-test and the xGA suggest that PSG were a slightly better team defensively throught the year. So PSG should be a slight favorite.
Assuming Bayern see this out without much drama, how does everyone here feel about the one-leg v two leg approach? UEFA would never give up the TV revenue of the extra games but a part of me feels like they're more interesting and we got a bit lucky to have a few good quarterfinals to spice things up. Just feels like it'd be more fum if Lyon could nab an away goal
Looking forward and assuming Bayern sees this out:
How does Bayern tactically contain Mbappe/Neymar when PSG have the ball? Memphis/Ekambi are a problem, and I think that PSG's attack is quite a bit better.
I don't think there are many players, in the world, who can kick a ball harder with their left foot than Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane. They'll, uh, be on the same team next season.
WTFFFFFFFF
Kicking a Soccer Ball Is Hard, Champions League Semifinal Edition, Version 3.0
Bayern are gonna be tough to beat if teams keep missing breakaways against them.
FT Update:
xG: 3.4 Bayern, Lyon 1.65
Shots (OT): 19 (8) Bayern, 9 (3) Lyon
Final-third passes: 87 Bayern, 52 Lyon
Penalty-area passes: 16 Bayern, Lyon 5
Outside of the first 15-20 minutes, that was not particularly close. Hopefully those two semis were penance paid for prime-time final. My early lean is toward PSG -- look at that xG number for Lyon -- but I'm gonna have to dig into it a bit more before giving my OFFICIAL prediction. Thanks for following along as always. We'll do it on Sunday, too. Also, if you're a premium subscriber, be sure to send in your questions for the next mailbag! See y'all soon.
Not great from the Lyon midfield there; Aouar especially. But woof. What a goal.
Truly elite tackle by Thiago Mendes. It's not easy to get your cleat caught on an opponent's shoulder blade.
Coutinho Tatis Jr.
Lyon's first Ligue 1 Uber Eats (lol) match is in 9 days against Dijon
HT Update:
xG: 2.81 Bayern, 1.01 Lyon
Shots (OT): Bayern 12 (6), Lyon 4 (0)
Final-third passes: Bayern 34, Lyon 23
Penalty-area passes: Bayern 8, Lyon 1
Serge Gnabry has entered the chat.
Caqueret's hair is straight out of the 1930's. Love it.
One more pre-game nugget, using Stats Perform's data:
-For Bayern against Barca, their possessions that led shots lasted on average for 10.4 seconds and 3.4 passes. For Lyon against City: 1.3 seconds and 0.6 passes.
Mueller, again reading the space to block that Goretzka shot
I don't care who wins this match as long as the winner prevents the human rights abuser from winning the CL
and this team is adding sane next season, europe is fucked
Goretzka truthers hive stand up!!!
Transitive property: Bayern Munich are three goals better than Lyon, who are two goals better than Manchester City, who are therefore one goal better than Barcelona.
OK, since this half is a wash: Lyon creating a couple opportunities but Bayern effectively possessing in their own half and sucking the life out of the game. Given the score and the, I guess, "respect" being shown to them does this mean that Lyon are better than Barcelona?
Who's your early pick in PSG-Bayern? And why? (And yes, let's hope this is a jinx.)
"Bayern surely cannot lose from two goals up" is bold-talk from Peter Drury. It's like he 1) hasn't watched Bayern's defense, and 2) hasn't watched Champions League soccer over the past 10 years.
Lyon still don't have a shot on target ...
but can he do it on a wet, windy night at the Hawthorns?
Goretzka hunting his own teammates is a fun new wrinkle
I just moved from Chicago to Vancouver and Alphonso Davies is going to be my side piece to Christian Pulisic's main squeeze
I feel with Muller he's teh type of guy who after training dutifully completes and submits the rest of his players taxes like Andy Dufresne in Shawshank Redemption.
Good to see the City "miss a chance, give up a goal" disease is contagious
I don't know if it's the frenzied Spanish commentary i'm listening to, but this is really fun.
Are we all cheering for Bayern to set up the dream final or are we still cheering for the upset? Kind of annoyed we’re not watching City-Bayern right now.
Remember, all you need to do is eat your dessert before your dinner and you too can be like Robert Lewandowski
When's the next podcast coming out Ryan?
shambolic defending
still rooting for lyon though
A friendly reminder that Gnabry was let go by Arsenal for peanuts
Arjen Robben has entered the chat
I just found out over Twitter that Davies's is dating Jordan Huitema who plays for PSG and will against Arsenal on Saturday
Who's better Liverpool, Bayern or PSG? This may seem redundant being that Liverpool are out but there's a reason FIFA are creating the Club World Cup in China. Because these questions need to be answered with even more football.
4 shots, 3 on target, 2 goals. Decent night.
If we assume that their attacking forces are a wash, both the eye-test and the xGA suggest that PSG were a slightly better team defensively throught the year. So PSG should be a slight favorite.
I think Lyon are pretty lucky that Lewy has decided to abstain from scoring this game.
Surely Bayern will play much deeper in the final.
can't wait for depay's bayern munich diss track after they lose
Is Marco Verratti out of the final?
Assuming Bayern see this out without much drama, how does everyone here feel about the one-leg v two leg approach? UEFA would never give up the TV revenue of the extra games but a part of me feels like they're more interesting and we got a bit lucky to have a few good quarterfinals to spice things up. Just feels like it'd be more fum if Lyon could nab an away goal
i'm so scared of bayern in the final
Looking forward and assuming Bayern sees this out:
How does Bayern tactically contain Mbappe/Neymar when PSG have the ball? Memphis/Ekambi are a problem, and I think that PSG's attack is quite a bit better.
aouar 2nd half masterclass incoming
at least goretzka still goretzkaing
Appraently Alaba really wants go to Barcelona. Why?
Lewa...missed...a clear chance?