We’re running it back today. I’ll be in the thread, responding to questions and dropping in comments for the duration of the afternoon Champions League matches. Ask me whatever you’d like — Champions related, non-CL, even non-soccer — and I’ll try to get to as many questions as I can. But for now — and even once I’m in there — feel free to chat amongst yourselves!
Theory: Klopp saw his old teams -- go crazy, win every game 4-3 -- in Marsch's Salzburg. It made him jealous. Rather than shutting it down at halftime, he told his D to play an even higher line than normal in hopes of increasing the fireworks on both sides. This is what he wants, you guys.
I think Liverpool will get their bearings again in this, but Salzburg just ruthlessly exploited LFC's biggest weakness as well as any team has in the first 20 minutes of the second half. Seems really easy for teams to get on the ball behind the midfield and in front of the back line. Fun game! Sorry if you're watching Inter-Barca instead!
Seems a little low on Liverpool's side, but the Wijnaldum chance doesn't register as a HQ one, and Mane's header doesn't get on there, either. Although, Salzburg had a big chance chalked off for offside. Anyway, seems right that Liverpool were about a full goal better on the whole, and ... that's where it ended up landing -- on steroids.
The shot from Haaland must have 1.3 all by itself. But I'll guess 4.0-1.6 in favor of Liverpool. Liverpool were scoring from very close in, and missing a couple more big ones (though Sadio's near post header attempt might not register as a shot), while Adrian really didn't have to make any saves, and the first RB goal can't have been high xG...
Think this is the best half Liverpool have played this season. No Haland is a big downgrade for Salzburg, but you rarely see a team dominate possession like this while also creating super-high-quality chances.
I'll probably just hate watch - gotta be there when the whole thing implodes. Both Barca and Madrid going down - might be another Atleti year in la Liga
I go to a couple LAFC games every season. I also went to the Galaxy-LAFC game at What Used to Be the StubHub Center a few months ago. That was one of the best sporting events I've ever attended.
In light of VAR, could some explain for me why there’s not more serious talk about changing the offsides rule from “if any part of player is ahead of as defender, they’re offsides” to “if any part of a player is parallel with a defender, they are still ONSIDES”? Does Razz Sterling’s shoulder being a millimeter in front of a defender actually give any more of an advantage than if one boot is?
It doesn't appear that the powers-that-be really considered how VAR would put a microscope on how imperfect the rule book was. I think I'm, personally, realizing that referees have actually done a really good job, for a long time, of "managing the game". The beauty of soccer, to me, is how fluid it is. VAR, for better or worse, isn't concerned with that.
Given the success of Ralf Rangnick, Ralph Hasenhuttl, and Julian Nagelsmann, is Leipzig the right next stop for Jesse Marsch? Or could he cut the line to a bigger job?
Seems like the logical next step, although Leipzig brought in Nagelsmann instead of Marco Rose, who was with Salzburg last year and seems like a pretty promising manager, too.
VAR is awesome. Completely takes violent conduct out of the game, and for that alone it's worth the price paid in "whimsy" and "sponteneity" that fans of no hope teams and nihilist deadspin writers prize.
Given that Countinho seems to have very quickly become a nailed on started for Bayern, can anyone explain what Barcelona did to make him look significantly worse than world class? Is it as simple as the fact that he is a not-as-good-Messi and a team can't support two of that kind of player?
I think Couts is similar to Juan Mata and Dybala in that they're guys who are clearly world class, but also difficult to figure out how to fit them into any particular structure. And Barcelona's structure has become a very rigid system of "be where Leo wants you to be, or get out of his way". And Phil's game is entirely about starting wide and driving toward where Messi's standing to create a shot or pass, both of which he excels at. If Muller was still at his peak occupying that space, Phil would be having the same problem at Bayern.
so much of modern soccer is having to be at least acceptable at everything on the pitch, because teams kill you for your liabilities. You really can't have luxury players anymore who coast on elite attacking talent with only nominal defensive effort. I think you've nailed Coutinho's problem at Barca, btw, and he always worked harder than you'd think at Liverpool, but I just don't think he knew what to do defensively to make it worth it for them to put him in the middle of the field for Barca.
Does anyone have any clue as to why Muller fell off the face of the Earth after 2014 World Cup? He was in the middle of his prime and just hasn't been that world class false 9 in a very long time.
it's probably more that Bayern gets him the ball way further up the pitch. He also seems to have been cured of his ball stopping tendencies that were a problem at Liverpool and FATAL at Barcelona
Obviously the xG was lopsided -- FBref has it as 2.7 to 1.6 ... in favor of Spurs! So, they got really unlucky, but they also had a terrible second half. Much of Spurs's so-called advantage came from Kane's penalty and the dominant first 30 minutes of the first half. So, I think it's a combination of Spurs players already being unhappy, the team not performing well all season, a bad second half, some insane finishing from Bayern, and some factors that downplay the quality of BM's chances.
I think the xG model is predicated on the idea that when you take a shot from 30 yards out, some of the guys in between you and the goal might actually try to block it. Model kinda fails when the defense gives up...
I think if everything were otherwise fine in terms of recent results, there'd be no broader conclusions to draw. It could have been read as an extreme version of "it happens". But there's clearly been something wrong under the hood all season - maybe more than one something - and yesterday threatens to be a straw breaking the camel's back. We'll see...
I think that's a tempting interpretation but I think part of the reason those low quality shots went in is because Spurs truly gave up in second and failed to apply pressure to goals.
probably nothing since they're still likely to come out of their group with goal differential not mattering much. the number of Poch Out posts from idiot fans are pretty great though!
while it may be an unlikely result from the xG, it came about from eminently preventable problems that have existed for a long time that Spurs have made little effort to correct. Aurier is clearly not good enough. Winks is very likely not good enough. Sure, the xG count wasn't that lopsided, but Spurs complete lack of control in midfield and just ugly play aren't exactly new issues, even this year. Their strategy of just kicking the crap out of better teams doesn't really work, either.
I'm mainly interested in the narrative of something drastic being done at the club given a ridiculous, but somewhat unlikely result - I want drama and what is the likelihood of it happening.
Poch isn't in much more than lukewarm water. The fan base knows what he's done. The board know what he's done. Even if things head south in the league (looking at finishing 5th rather than in top 4) they would give him until the end of the season.
our coach is not good and stakeholders in the USMNT basically guarantee we'll be playing a bunch of lichen covered rocks who happens to play for a big market MLS team no matter what, so it's hard to blame him
Ryan has written before about LFC (unlike a team with seemingly limitless resources like City) will need to sell some valuable assets because it cannot afford to retool its soon-to-be-aging front three without the significant cash infusion that a high-profile sale brings. I think that's probably right - I figure LFC would need to spend around $250-$300 million to completely replace its front three in this market. I wonder, though, that if instead of selling-to-buy, LFC is taking more of the waiting-to-buy approach. In just the champs league alone, LFC banked around $100+ million last year. And even if LFC goes out in the early knockout stages, it will still bank $50-$75 million this year just for the champs league. When you add in the ridiculous EPL money, this is all a long way of asking, "With a negative net spend this year, do you (Ryan) still think that LFC will need to sell a prized asset next summer to help with the rebuild?"
I've talked to some people who've said that they think LFC are about to enter the "don't need to sell in order to buy" tier. The issue, though, is more about playing time. Finding the guy who's as good as the front three -- or at least you're confident will soon be as good -- and who's also OK with coming off the bench? That's tough! And you're just not benching any of these guys yet, either. It's tricky.
Maybe this is something Brett would be better able to answer, but do you think that the increased fitness capacity of athletes has allowed for teams to play with attacking fullbacks (How often did you see a RB cross low to a LB for an in-front-of-goalmouth score 10 years ago???) who can still get back and cover defensively for 90 mins. Are there any other tactical shifts that you could see coming about as a result of increased fitness and athleticism?
The opposite of this -- the number of athletes skilled and let's say aerobically capable enough to play a whole wing, as modern fullbacks typically were with the advent of inverted wingers -- is why we've seen a rise in back threes, inverted fullbacks, etc. I mainly think that Liverpool lucked into two absolutely freaks with skillsets that perfectly compliment each other. It's not like we're seeing any other teams leveraging their FBs in the same way.
Agree or disagree re. Liverpool's front three: Mane is the most talented Liverpool attacker, Salah is the one with the most metrics-friendly playing style, and Firmino is the most irreplaceable to Klopp's system
I'll say this: Mane scores the most diverse set of goals (he's one of the most two-footed players in the world), and Firmino's definitely the most unique player of the three. But I still think Salah -- and the gravity he carries on the field by drawing defenders to him -- would be the hardest to replace.
How does Barcelona not have another option at CB other than Pique? He played the 2nd most minutes on the team last year despite his advanced age. It does not seem ideal.
It's definitely a little weird that he's not getting PT in the "We're just gonna play the kids" era at Chelsea. But I think what Gab Marcotti wrote on Monday still applies: "Chelsea view Pulisic as a long-term project, not as a finished article who will have an instant impact. Players who have gone on to achieve far more than Pulisic might ever dream of weren't guaranteed starters at his age. Give him time, let him continue fighting for his place and, most of all, let him grow into the best player he can be"
Until last match Willian hadn't scored for what, 23 matches, and Pedro hasn't scored in 16? Pulisic's per 90 stats are better, and it can't be that he's putting in less work than Willian who is allergic to tracking back. I just am not picking up what Willian does that Lampard needs, and that Pulisic wouldn't do.
Are we sure Bayern are not CL favorites? Squad depth is incredible, prolific striker, solid midfield. Neuer is the only question mark for me, he’s been questionable the past few seasons in big games.
Agreed. That said the more the lead in the league grows the more likely their eyes shift towards that. Even in the knockout stages I wouldn't be shocked to see Liverpool not playing there absolute strongest squad in order to maintain a lead over city.
I think it's more that Liverpool care more about the league right now then champs league. They have champs league trophies. They want prem trophies. Just as I think city would gladly sacrifice the league for champs league.
OK! That was fun. Thanks all. Love the atmosphere in here; rare to see discussions like this on the Internet anymore. We'll do it again soon.
Theory: Klopp saw his old teams -- go crazy, win every game 4-3 -- in Marsch's Salzburg. It made him jealous. Rather than shutting it down at halftime, he told his D to play an even higher line than normal in hopes of increasing the fireworks on both sides. This is what he wants, you guys.
weirdly enough this feels like it turned into a really high level MLS game
I feel like I'm watching 2017 Liverpool play 2017 Liverpool. I've never asked for this.
guardian compared it to an old Newcastle Liverpool match from the Shearer days
I think Liverpool will get their bearings again in this, but Salzburg just ruthlessly exploited LFC's biggest weakness as well as any team has in the first 20 minutes of the second half. Seems really easy for teams to get on the ball behind the midfield and in front of the back line. Fun game! Sorry if you're watching Inter-Barca instead!
WHERE'S THE LOVE FOR THIS ONE YOU FUCKERS???????
waiting for the other shoe to drop
holding my breath for 20 more minutes, can't type dying
exhale
Thata boy, Ryan! Keep it up! Or don't!
Is Haland faking an illness because he's scared of VVD?
He did say he was hoping to trick VVD - maybe this is part of it!
In what season does Erling Braut Håland win the Premier League with Leeds?
honestly, he is already out of their price range...
Very true. So maybe 2034 when he's an aging superstar that finally makes it over on a year-long contract.
The progression of answers here is perfect. Proud of you two.
Wow. I love Salzburg. What a freaking team. Experiment time: What do you guys think the xG tallies were for LFC and Salzburg?
First publicly available model has it as 2.27 to 1.22 in Liverpool's favor: https://twitter.com/InfogolApp/status/1179501438004711424
Seems a little low on Liverpool's side, but the Wijnaldum chance doesn't register as a HQ one, and Mane's header doesn't get on there, either. Although, Salzburg had a big chance chalked off for offside. Anyway, seems right that Liverpool were about a full goal better on the whole, and ... that's where it ended up landing -- on steroids.
The shot from Haaland must have 1.3 all by itself. But I'll guess 4.0-1.6 in favor of Liverpool. Liverpool were scoring from very close in, and missing a couple more big ones (though Sadio's near post header attempt might not register as a shot), while Adrian really didn't have to make any saves, and the first RB goal can't have been high xG...
ESPN doesn't give Sadio a shot attempt on that corner, so I'm overstating Liverpool by at least .5 pretend-xG
1.7 RBS-2.6 LFC
CALEY HAD IT 1.5-2.6
Liverpool's defense is still very much not looking as good as it did last year.
Yepppppppp.
We might need you to just stop talking
First one was a jinx. Second one was just accurate commentary!
And that one?? Come on Ryan
Think this is the best half Liverpool have played this season. No Haland is a big downgrade for Salzburg, but you rarely see a team dominate possession like this while also creating super-high-quality chances.
Great timing!
you had to say it
All right -- I'm here. Let's do this! I've got LFC-RB on my TV.
Not gonna watch Don Antonio try and vice grip Barcelona like its 2010?
Nope! Barca have already done a pretty good job of vice-gripping themselves this year.
I'll probably just hate watch - gotta be there when the whole thing implodes. Both Barca and Madrid going down - might be another Atleti year in la Liga
forza inter
Ryan, do you ever attend MLS matches and will you when Messi is playing in the States next year?
I go to a couple LAFC games every season. I also went to the Galaxy-LAFC game at What Used to Be the StubHub Center a few months ago. That was one of the best sporting events I've ever attended.
In light of VAR, could some explain for me why there’s not more serious talk about changing the offsides rule from “if any part of player is ahead of as defender, they’re offsides” to “if any part of a player is parallel with a defender, they are still ONSIDES”? Does Razz Sterling’s shoulder being a millimeter in front of a defender actually give any more of an advantage than if one boot is?
Sorry for all the VAR related questions, Ryan.
It doesn't appear that the powers-that-be really considered how VAR would put a microscope on how imperfect the rule book was. I think I'm, personally, realizing that referees have actually done a really good job, for a long time, of "managing the game". The beauty of soccer, to me, is how fluid it is. VAR, for better or worse, isn't concerned with that.
Given the success of Ralf Rangnick, Ralph Hasenhuttl, and Julian Nagelsmann, is Leipzig the right next stop for Jesse Marsch? Or could he cut the line to a bigger job?
Seems like the logical next step, although Leipzig brought in Nagelsmann instead of Marco Rose, who was with Salzburg last year and seems like a pretty promising manager, too.
gotta pay your dues on the way up
Who wants to start a huge thread about the Pros/Cons VAR to force Ryan to respond to it against his will?
Con; it's not long enough, I want NFL style 10 minutes of stoppage to view the same clip 1000 times.
I want Mike Pereira talking about every review, he can't be more frequently wrong on the final outcome than he is in OTHER football broadcasts
VAR is awesome. Completely takes violent conduct out of the game, and for that alone it's worth the price paid in "whimsy" and "sponteneity" that fans of no hope teams and nihilist deadspin writers prize.
AND DORTMUND ON THE COUNTER!
Winger Hakimi 😤 😤 😤
Given that Countinho seems to have very quickly become a nailed on started for Bayern, can anyone explain what Barcelona did to make him look significantly worse than world class? Is it as simple as the fact that he is a not-as-good-Messi and a team can't support two of that kind of player?
I think Couts is similar to Juan Mata and Dybala in that they're guys who are clearly world class, but also difficult to figure out how to fit them into any particular structure. And Barcelona's structure has become a very rigid system of "be where Leo wants you to be, or get out of his way". And Phil's game is entirely about starting wide and driving toward where Messi's standing to create a shot or pass, both of which he excels at. If Muller was still at his peak occupying that space, Phil would be having the same problem at Bayern.
so much of modern soccer is having to be at least acceptable at everything on the pitch, because teams kill you for your liabilities. You really can't have luxury players anymore who coast on elite attacking talent with only nominal defensive effort. I think you've nailed Coutinho's problem at Barca, btw, and he always worked harder than you'd think at Liverpool, but I just don't think he knew what to do defensively to make it worth it for them to put him in the middle of the field for Barca.
Does anyone have any clue as to why Muller fell off the face of the Earth after 2014 World Cup? He was in the middle of his prime and just hasn't been that world class false 9 in a very long time.
it's probably more that Bayern gets him the ball way further up the pitch. He also seems to have been cured of his ball stopping tendencies that were a problem at Liverpool and FATAL at Barcelona
he played wide left instead of as a central 10
What does yesterday's result mean for Spurs given that it was an unlikely result xG wise?
Obviously the xG was lopsided -- FBref has it as 2.7 to 1.6 ... in favor of Spurs! So, they got really unlucky, but they also had a terrible second half. Much of Spurs's so-called advantage came from Kane's penalty and the dominant first 30 minutes of the first half. So, I think it's a combination of Spurs players already being unhappy, the team not performing well all season, a bad second half, some insane finishing from Bayern, and some factors that downplay the quality of BM's chances.
I think the xG model is predicated on the idea that when you take a shot from 30 yards out, some of the guys in between you and the goal might actually try to block it. Model kinda fails when the defense gives up...
I think if everything were otherwise fine in terms of recent results, there'd be no broader conclusions to draw. It could have been read as an extreme version of "it happens". But there's clearly been something wrong under the hood all season - maybe more than one something - and yesterday threatens to be a straw breaking the camel's back. We'll see...
I think that's a tempting interpretation but I think part of the reason those low quality shots went in is because Spurs truly gave up in second and failed to apply pressure to goals.
probably nothing since they're still likely to come out of their group with goal differential not mattering much. the number of Poch Out posts from idiot fans are pretty great though!
while it may be an unlikely result from the xG, it came about from eminently preventable problems that have existed for a long time that Spurs have made little effort to correct. Aurier is clearly not good enough. Winks is very likely not good enough. Sure, the xG count wasn't that lopsided, but Spurs complete lack of control in midfield and just ugly play aren't exactly new issues, even this year. Their strategy of just kicking the crap out of better teams doesn't really work, either.
I mean, it still would have been likely that they would have lost by a goal or two, so probably not great even by xG. What do you think Ryan O'xG-God
I'm mainly interested in the narrative of something drastic being done at the club given a ridiculous, but somewhat unlikely result - I want drama and what is the likelihood of it happening.
Poch isn't in much more than lukewarm water. The fan base knows what he's done. The board know what he's done. Even if things head south in the league (looking at finishing 5th rather than in top 4) they would give him until the end of the season.
What is going on with tottenham...
lads.....
never in doubt
Other RB not looking great
Out-shooting Lyon, 17-9. Keep the faith.
Naby Keita really died didn't he
posterchild for soccer analytics
Hi, Ajax fan here. Is our boy Sergino Dest getting any love in the US?
I have been told that this article was pretty popular! We love great young players who will ultimately break fans' hearts and choose someone else. https://www.espn.com/soccer/united-states/story/3935090/sergino-dest-could-be-us-soccers-next-big-thing-but-even-if-hes-nothes-proof-of-progress
Oh nice, I'll read that later.
Mendez had a nice start for our 2nd team as well, very interesting talent, giving Eriksen vibes.
yes but we're terrified he switches national teams to the Netherlands
We in Holland were pretty convinced y'all had him. But apparently Koeman had a great chat with him, and we're liking our chances now.
If he does choose for the US, please somehow convince your coach know to never play him on the left side again.
our coach is not good and stakeholders in the USMNT basically guarantee we'll be playing a bunch of lichen covered rocks who happens to play for a big market MLS team no matter what, so it's hard to blame him
Ryan has written before about LFC (unlike a team with seemingly limitless resources like City) will need to sell some valuable assets because it cannot afford to retool its soon-to-be-aging front three without the significant cash infusion that a high-profile sale brings. I think that's probably right - I figure LFC would need to spend around $250-$300 million to completely replace its front three in this market. I wonder, though, that if instead of selling-to-buy, LFC is taking more of the waiting-to-buy approach. In just the champs league alone, LFC banked around $100+ million last year. And even if LFC goes out in the early knockout stages, it will still bank $50-$75 million this year just for the champs league. When you add in the ridiculous EPL money, this is all a long way of asking, "With a negative net spend this year, do you (Ryan) still think that LFC will need to sell a prized asset next summer to help with the rebuild?"
I've talked to some people who've said that they think LFC are about to enter the "don't need to sell in order to buy" tier. The issue, though, is more about playing time. Finding the guy who's as good as the front three -- or at least you're confident will soon be as good -- and who's also OK with coming off the bench? That's tough! And you're just not benching any of these guys yet, either. It's tricky.
How does a club as big as Barcelona not have a better second CB than Clement Lenglet?
If Umtiti could stay healthy/Valverde would play him, then this would not be an issue!
Maybe this is something Brett would be better able to answer, but do you think that the increased fitness capacity of athletes has allowed for teams to play with attacking fullbacks (How often did you see a RB cross low to a LB for an in-front-of-goalmouth score 10 years ago???) who can still get back and cover defensively for 90 mins. Are there any other tactical shifts that you could see coming about as a result of increased fitness and athleticism?
The opposite of this -- the number of athletes skilled and let's say aerobically capable enough to play a whole wing, as modern fullbacks typically were with the advent of inverted wingers -- is why we've seen a rise in back threes, inverted fullbacks, etc. I mainly think that Liverpool lucked into two absolutely freaks with skillsets that perfectly compliment each other. It's not like we're seeing any other teams leveraging their FBs in the same way.
*the limited number
Agree or disagree re. Liverpool's front three: Mane is the most talented Liverpool attacker, Salah is the one with the most metrics-friendly playing style, and Firmino is the most irreplaceable to Klopp's system
I'll say this: Mane scores the most diverse set of goals (he's one of the most two-footed players in the world), and Firmino's definitely the most unique player of the three. But I still think Salah -- and the gravity he carries on the field by drawing defenders to him -- would be the hardest to replace.
How does Barcelona not have another option at CB other than Pique? He played the 2nd most minutes on the team last year despite his advanced age. It does not seem ideal.
They seem to have soured on Umtiti, who also seems to have soured on the club and who also can't stay healthy.
Thoughts on Pulisic not making the bench for Chelsea?
It's definitely a little weird that he's not getting PT in the "We're just gonna play the kids" era at Chelsea. But I think what Gab Marcotti wrote on Monday still applies: "Chelsea view Pulisic as a long-term project, not as a finished article who will have an instant impact. Players who have gone on to achieve far more than Pulisic might ever dream of weren't guaranteed starters at his age. Give him time, let him continue fighting for his place and, most of all, let him grow into the best player he can be"
Until last match Willian hadn't scored for what, 23 matches, and Pedro hasn't scored in 16? Pulisic's per 90 stats are better, and it can't be that he's putting in less work than Willian who is allergic to tracking back. I just am not picking up what Willian does that Lampard needs, and that Pulisic wouldn't do.
Lamps thinks the Championship is better than the BL
Is Hakimi the next Marcelo?
ha what even is this Napoli lineup
Are we sure Bayern are not CL favorites? Squad depth is incredible, prolific striker, solid midfield. Neuer is the only question mark for me, he’s been questionable the past few seasons in big games.
If they outperform their xG by more than five goals every game, then they're gonna win the whole thing.
eh, maybe. Don't overreact to one result though you know? They're not shredding their league up the way Liverpool is
538 gives em second best odds of winning it
Champions league dark horse and why is it Inter?
Let's see 'em actually win a Champions League game before crowning their asses. I still like both of the RB teams.
going well so far 😂 but yeah both RB teams are very fun
are you team FavreOUT, Ryan?
No! He's great; it's just funny to see the over-performance dry up a bit. How do you feel about him?
dude, Dortmund look lethal on the counter attack. They need to capitalize soon or they'll start to lose momentum
do you think there's a chance Liverpool punts on the champions league if they lose this match?
not yet, maybe if they lose the first three
Agreed. That said the more the lead in the league grows the more likely their eyes shift towards that. Even in the knockout stages I wouldn't be shocked to see Liverpool not playing there absolute strongest squad in order to maintain a lead over city.
it's crazy that City are that good, that Liverpool would feel that
I think it's more that Liverpool care more about the league right now then champs league. They have champs league trophies. They want prem trophies. Just as I think city would gladly sacrifice the league for champs league.
Just like B/Rs The Champions hahaha
any other year (except last year) and people would be saying the league is already sewn up. Whether that would have been true, I dunno.