It’s Day Two, and boy. This is … not one of the games of the season! Fifteenth vs. 16th! Feel the excitement, baby.
Despite, uh, just two wins from 15 games, Brighton have the fifth-best expected-goal differential in the league (per Stats Perform). Their attack is right around league-average (ninth in xG), but they’ve allowed the third-fewest xG in the league behind Chelsea and Manchester City. So, why the impressive performances but poor results? Mainly: terrible goalkeeping! Per FBRef’s Statsbomb data, Matthew Ryan has allowed the joint-most goals below average (3.2, tied with Rui Patricio of Wolves) in the league so far this season. However, Ryan’s been dropped for 23-year-old Robert Sanchez, and Brighton have drawn the last three games with the young Spaniard in net. If all else remains equal and Sanchez just makes the average saves you’d expect a keeper to make, then Brighton should start to rise up the table.
As for Arsenal, they’re worse than Brighton, but higher in the table, but nowhere near where they want to be, but also probably not quite as bad as they seem. The Gunners rank 11th in xGD, with the 12th-best attack and ninth-best defense. It’s all so meh. In a way, Graham Potter’s team is what Mikel Arteta wishes his could be — save for the results. The average possession for both sides lasts longer than league-average, and they both move the ball up the field at the exact same speed: 1.13 meters per second — slower than every team in the league other than Southampton. In other words, both teams are trying to use possession as a defensive tactic, but Brighton are the only ones doing it effectively — again, save for the results.
there wasn't that much classics this season either, if you don't count the leeds games, which are in their own league. and the derbies were really borefests
I know they have a lot of things to worry about, but one other thing I'd be worried about, if I worked for Arsenal: Thomas Partey left Atletico Madrid, and now Atletico Madrid are the favorites to win La Liga.
Because someone has to play the “irrational arsenal fan” here, I’m not concerned about that at all. Atletico are favorites more because of Joao making the leap and Barca/Madrid falling off
I, personally, would not want to pay 50 million for a defensive midfielder whose former team immediately got better defensively as soon as he left. But that's just me.
As an Arsenal fan, was more worried about the miles you rack up playing in a Simeone side. Wouldn't be surprised if there was a correlation between the two
Good call. Joao makes a team like Atletico Madrid actually fun to watch. He combines so well with the rest of the midfield - what a great player. It's like watching a number 10 in FIFA do everything possible, without ever getting tired.
-Shots (on target): Brighton 13 (2), Arsenal 11 (3)
-xG: Brighton 0.89, Arsenal 1.27
-Final-third passes: Brighton 92, Arsenal 66
-Penalty-area passes: Brighton 11, Arsenal 5
Pretty even game. Pretty awful game. Brighton controlled things in the first half. Brighton lost control in the first half. Frankly, the difference in this match -- beyond who finished and who didn't -- is that one team had Bukayo Saka, and the other team didn't. Saka created three chances, including the winner, worth 0.75 xG. No one else in the league has registered more than 0.44 so far this Matchweek. None of it came within some kind of special tactical structure, either; no, it was just him making fools out of the Brihgton backline. Did we mention that the kid is only 19? He's a bonafide star.
Metaphorical Spanish Ham Recipient: Bukayo Saka, obviously. He went off injured. Hopefully it's not serious, but if it is, these real-or-imagined hams are massive, so the Jamón Serrano should last him a while as he convalesces. Who knows, maybe it even has some curative properties. Get well soon, Bukayo.
Thanks for participating today, all. Loved the managers-as-politicians chat, especially. Talk to you tomorrow.
Per the DAVIES model: Bukayo Saka is Arsenal's best player, worth 2.46 goals more than average. Except, that makes him just the 45th-best player in the league this season. Arsenal aren't THAT bad; you'd expect them to have at least a player or two who ranked a lot higher than that. What does that mean? Right now, Arsenal have a balanced team of players who don't really add much value but also don't take a ton of value away.
I was thinking about the pragmatism convo w/r/t to football managers and how it ports pretty directly into politics, too. Not sure I wanna go down this road, but if Bielsa is Bernie Sanders -- sticks to his principles, finally experiencing some mainstream success -- then, uh, who is Big Sam? Klopp? Pep? Mikel Arteta? Etc.
Getting strong Klobuchar vibes from Lampard. Definitely eats his dry turkey with a comb. Jose ... well, I don't want to go to prison, so I'll hold off on that one.
Nagelsmann is AOC: young, progressive, come from a non-traditional background, have found early, consistent success and a unanimous approval among millennials who spend too much time online
Is the festive period akin to Thursday Night Football in the nfl? Outside of the famous City-Liverpool match, it seems like the quality of these games is never very high, especially towards the end
I think your guess is probably correct, but I haven't seen any research into the topic. My guess is it'd be a combo of lack of rest and new, less cohesive lineups being used.
Should we, uh, consider switching to another game at halftime? Also, as I said yesterday, please feel free to ask questions that have nothing to do with the game we're watching.
Don't really think the issue is the midfield. They've had the ball in the attacking third often enough, and the attackers have turned it into ... nothing.
Dan Burn is such a weird player. His height should make him a pure center back but he likes to maraud a bit more than you’d expect and he’s not terrible
its definitely on brand for them, though: tierney as a true all-timer no-nonsense left back who goes up and down the pitch for 90 minutes, and also, bellerín as a fashion-icon, can't wear his jerseys like everyone else!
And by losing a step, I don't mean sheer speed. He can still catch up to someone in a thirty, fourty yard dash, in a straight line (like when he embarrassed Pedro in september of 2016). His lateral movement is off, his shiftyness, with or without the ball, is slower than what it used to be. It sucks because he was just reaching his peak when it happened. He scored so many key goals; against Chelsea, for instance.
Arsenal, but only because they get a crack at it every year and get to choose their players (which, I acknowledge, appears to be a handicap at the current moment).
I think he'd make a pretty good England manager. Also, I think the results will scare teams away, but he's got a relatively low-cost team playing in the style of a much bigger club. You could see a team with much better talent playing the exact same way Brighton do. Might sound obvious, but that's often not true of successful managers from lower-in-the-table teams.
great call, his skills would fit an NT even better. southgate's skill is, too, that he has a plan which he can see back on the field, and potter is a better manager without a doubt
his main strength is that he can effectively implement his plans, and that's one of the most important traits at the top level imo, so yeah, i think so
The announcer just mentioned the qualities of Arsenal strikers and added "Aubameyoung's runs in behind". He's not doing them! He can't play up top by himself!!
eh, he could in the past, but this year he really looks like lost, like someone who don't trust his abilities at all. it's bad, because his main strength has always been getting into dangerous positions in an elite level, and scoring them on par with the xg. last year it was a very big overperformance that masked his decline, which was a cause of concern regarding a new contract - and here we are, he really did fell of a cliff.
Battle of the under-performing-but-still-not-good-teams! Arteta keeping in Smith-Rowe and Martinelli, excited to see the young guys. Maybe they can add some xfun.
once a young, fresh mind with the prospect of ,breaking the wheel' slowly turning on his ideas and becoming obsessed with an opposition-picture (pep=soros, lol :D)
He's decent, imo. Pretty good athlete. Big dude. Runs a lot. And is currently on 0.49 npxG+xA, which is 28th in the league and better than Sterling and Pulisic.
he gives me such a good-not-great, but performing at a very high level when needed SAF-player vibes. you know, those lineup graphics that come up every now and then on twitter about how good Ferguson was, that he could win with these type of players as well
I think it goes like this: manager has no clue what to do --> switches to a back 3 --> team isn't quite as terrible (perhaps only because there's no tape of them playing with three at the back) --> team becomes terrible --> manager switches to a 4-2-3-1
I'm a fan -- great ball winner, great dribbler. His passing is decent enough, too: doesn't lose the ball much, moves it forward at a decent clip. Pretty much every team can use a player who dribbles, wins the ball, and doesn't give it away.
I actually love the maligned City away kits. Design is gorgeous, when looked closely. On our screens, it's just white, but from close enough you realize the blueness of the shirt. Just immaculate, I thought.
Has anyone got the numbers on lineup turnover for all the PL teams? Off the top of my head I'd imagine Brighton are higher up in terms of variance in starting xi but I'm probably wrong.
Couldn't find it, unfortunately. They've used a league-average number of players -- 22 -- but that doesn't tell you much. My guess is that they haven't changed at an especially high rate, though.
Yeah, I suppose watching Goal Rush isn't quite the theme today. They played a back pass to the center of the goal only the goalie was yards outside of the frame. A howler of an own goal.
Since it might be the wrong call, which would be overturned by VAR, they're encouraging play to come to its conclusion. I.e. an incorrect delayed flag wouldn't prevent a goal from being scored.
Arsenal fans, just superimpose Welbz head onto Fredo in that gif with Michael now, as it'll save you time later. "Welbz, you broke my heart. You broke my heart."
Has there ever been a good soccer game? I've never seen one.
Do you think there is a higher percentage of boring games because of no fans?
its rather the packed schedule, isn't it? and it won't really stop until, clears throat, the end of the 2022/23 season roughly
Yeah, I think it's more to do with the lack of rest time. But also: I just keeping picking shit games/shit games keep getting put on NBC Sports.
there wasn't that much classics this season either, if you don't count the leeds games, which are in their own league. and the derbies were really borefests
Pretty good 20 minutes from Arsenal this half. Saka is the best player on the team ... by a wide margin.
He's involved in just about everything good that happens: https://twitter.com/topimpacat/status/1343931760313327616
Man, Robbo!
It's a shame he doesn't seem interested in playing LB, playing a 3 at the back with he and TAA as wingbacks would make for an electric England squad
with lacazette, arsenal even can work on the right too, that helps
Would be interesting to see what they look like with him and Pepe out wide
LMAO I just saw the Leeds score.
Me too, great news
Solid pragmatism from Leeds
Not exactly defensively solid from Big Sam
will Big Sam stick with his ideas though?!
nbc punishing people for not having peacock subscription
Love to see MacAllister taking advantage of the 3v3 from a turnover by ... bombing a shot into the stands from outside the penalty area.
I know they have a lot of things to worry about, but one other thing I'd be worried about, if I worked for Arsenal: Thomas Partey left Atletico Madrid, and now Atletico Madrid are the favorites to win La Liga.
Because someone has to play the “irrational arsenal fan” here, I’m not concerned about that at all. Atletico are favorites more because of Joao making the leap and Barca/Madrid falling off
I, personally, would not want to pay 50 million for a defensive midfielder whose former team immediately got better defensively as soon as he left. But that's just me.
As an Arsenal fan, was more worried about the miles you rack up playing in a Simeone side. Wouldn't be surprised if there was a correlation between the two
forgot to include [winking emoji]
Good call. Joao makes a team like Atletico Madrid actually fun to watch. He combines so well with the rest of the midfield - what a great player. It's like watching a number 10 in FIFA do everything possible, without ever getting tired.
He hasn't mentioned it on air, I don't think, but Fufi is a huge Alexis MacAllister fan.
FIFA career mode GOD
FT Stat Update:
-Shots (on target): Brighton 13 (2), Arsenal 11 (3)
-xG: Brighton 0.89, Arsenal 1.27
-Final-third passes: Brighton 92, Arsenal 66
-Penalty-area passes: Brighton 11, Arsenal 5
Pretty even game. Pretty awful game. Brighton controlled things in the first half. Brighton lost control in the first half. Frankly, the difference in this match -- beyond who finished and who didn't -- is that one team had Bukayo Saka, and the other team didn't. Saka created three chances, including the winner, worth 0.75 xG. No one else in the league has registered more than 0.44 so far this Matchweek. None of it came within some kind of special tactical structure, either; no, it was just him making fools out of the Brihgton backline. Did we mention that the kid is only 19? He's a bonafide star.
Metaphorical Spanish Ham Recipient: Bukayo Saka, obviously. He went off injured. Hopefully it's not serious, but if it is, these real-or-imagined hams are massive, so the Jamón Serrano should last him a while as he convalesces. Who knows, maybe it even has some curative properties. Get well soon, Bukayo.
Thanks for participating today, all. Loved the managers-as-politicians chat, especially. Talk to you tomorrow.
Not proud of it, but I hate when players wear full-leg leggings under their shorts. Do people still say "OK boomer?"
Per the DAVIES model: Bukayo Saka is Arsenal's best player, worth 2.46 goals more than average. Except, that makes him just the 45th-best player in the league this season. Arsenal aren't THAT bad; you'd expect them to have at least a player or two who ranked a lot higher than that. What does that mean? Right now, Arsenal have a balanced team of players who don't really add much value but also don't take a ton of value away.
https://samgoldberg1882.shinyapps.io/ShinyAlph/
I have a probably misguided Leeds and Man U parlay going today so let's rock
We did it, folks
Parlaying two events in the least predictable sport is never misguided
Should've parlayed an Arsenal win and a Brighton win, imo.
You get it
I was thinking about the pragmatism convo w/r/t to football managers and how it ports pretty directly into politics, too. Not sure I wanna go down this road, but if Bielsa is Bernie Sanders -- sticks to his principles, finally experiencing some mainstream success -- then, uh, who is Big Sam? Klopp? Pep? Mikel Arteta? Etc.
Alan Pardew and Matt Gaetz -- what is wrong with me?
Getting strong Klobuchar vibes from Lampard. Definitely eats his dry turkey with a comb. Jose ... well, I don't want to go to prison, so I'll hold off on that one.
I feel like Lamps is Beto
Bereft of ideas and full of vibez?
Nailed it
Arteta is definitely Mayor Pete
Oops, sorry, Calvin; just saw this!
Broken minds think alike
Lol
Pep has to be Obama no? Stratospheric rise to success. Belief in big changes, settles on more pragmatism as career develops...
If Pep is Obama, Arteta is the Crooked Media guys
I was thinking Arteta might be Mayor Pete.
Just saw Calvin beat me to it.
Sir Alex is Dick Cheney
(might delete)
lmfao
Nagelsmann is AOC: young, progressive, come from a non-traditional background, have found early, consistent success and a unanimous approval among millennials who spend too much time online
also: people are way too obsessed with their outfits
Big Sam is current Joe Biden
Leeds-West Brom is Nevada.
Big Sam is Pat Buchanan
Howard Web is Antonin Scalia
Jesse Marsch = Stacy Abrams
HT Stat Update:
-Shots (on target): Brighton 8 (1), Arsenal 1 (0)
-xG, per Stats Perform: Brighton 0.95, Arsenal 0.14
-Final-third passes: Brighton 40, Arsenal 33
-Penalty-area passes: Brighton 3, Arsenal 2
Moral of the first 45: Arsenal are still a bad soccer team.
Sick half. Smith rowe got the most sauce on the field. The low socks + the all black cleats = sex
Fufi in the house
He changed his cleats! Smh
Is the festive period akin to Thursday Night Football in the nfl? Outside of the famous City-Liverpool match, it seems like the quality of these games is never very high, especially towards the end
I think your guess is probably correct, but I haven't seen any research into the topic. My guess is it'd be a combo of lack of rest and new, less cohesive lineups being used.
Should we, uh, consider switching to another game at halftime? Also, as I said yesterday, please feel free to ask questions that have nothing to do with the game we're watching.
How many other games will have the goalies juggling under pressure in the box?
He wants the ham.
Laughed in disbelief at that. Truly bizarre
Leeds Leeds Leeds (haven’t actually watched today bc two games is too much when I’m also pretending to work)
Think I’m heading over to Leeds too 🤔
Made the switch 5 mins ago and haven’t regretted it
Burnley v Sheffield should be end-to-end stuff
Is Maitland-Niles really not good enough to play CM over Xhaka or Elneny?
Don't really think the issue is the midfield. They've had the ball in the attacking third often enough, and the attackers have turned it into ... nothing.
Seems like he adds the most value as a wing back that can slide into the middle to overload
he showed some dynamism on the ball in the EL, which our current pairing certainly lacks
Dan Burn is such a weird player. His height should make him a pure center back but he likes to maraud a bit more than you’d expect and he’s not terrible
Love the Patrick Ewing tribute with his jersey number, too.
Arsenal look like a team where nobody has any idea when to make a run because they don't know when the ball will move
That was awesome, Bernd Leno....
Arsenal's fullbacks are both committed to looking like complete dweebs with their tucked in shorts.
its definitely on brand for them, though: tierney as a true all-timer no-nonsense left back who goes up and down the pitch for 90 minutes, and also, bellerín as a fashion-icon, can't wear his jerseys like everyone else!
Bellerin lost his sauce when he cut his hair, a la Samson
I can't help but think their struggles are directly correlated to this.
"tactical masterstroke from Arteta" on the sky broadcast. IDK about that one, boss
The NBC announcer just said that, too, but he started laughing while he was saying it.
Just came here to complain about this too. Such a tired commentary talking point.
Is Bellerin...good? His tuck game is strong, but whenever I watch him I keep expecting to see a better player - like the Walcott of RBs
Lost a step. It happens. His injury was, even in this era, a major one.
And by losing a step, I don't mean sheer speed. He can still catch up to someone in a thirty, fourty yard dash, in a straight line (like when he embarrassed Pedro in september of 2016). His lateral movement is off, his shiftyness, with or without the ball, is slower than what it used to be. It sucks because he was just reaching his peak when it happened. He scored so many key goals; against Chelsea, for instance.
Which happens first: Arsenal wins the Prem or the USMNT wins the World Cup?
Arsenal, but only because they get a crack at it every year and get to choose their players (which, I acknowledge, appears to be a handicap at the current moment).
Should Potter be in the mix for big jobs?
I think he'd make a pretty good England manager. Also, I think the results will scare teams away, but he's got a relatively low-cost team playing in the style of a much bigger club. You could see a team with much better talent playing the exact same way Brighton do. Might sound obvious, but that's often not true of successful managers from lower-in-the-table teams.
I imagine a lot of their young players will get poached but if he had a few years with this same squad I think Brighton could be a real force
great call, his skills would fit an NT even better. southgate's skill is, too, that he has a plan which he can see back on the field, and potter is a better manager without a doubt
his main strength is that he can effectively implement his plans, and that's one of the most important traits at the top level imo, so yeah, i think so
Arteta out, Potter IN
auba works noticeably worse with the young guns, than lacazette. can't link up with them at all
The announcer just mentioned the qualities of Arsenal strikers and added "Aubameyoung's runs in behind". He's not doing them! He can't play up top by himself!!
eh, he could in the past, but this year he really looks like lost, like someone who don't trust his abilities at all. it's bad, because his main strength has always been getting into dangerous positions in an elite level, and scoring them on par with the xg. last year it was a very big overperformance that masked his decline, which was a cause of concern regarding a new contract - and here we are, he really did fell of a cliff.
Battle of the under-performing-but-still-not-good-teams! Arteta keeping in Smith-Rowe and Martinelli, excited to see the young guys. Maybe they can add some xfun.
Has there been any work done to quantify the value/impact of managers on teams? Feels like a space a with a lot of opinions but not that much data
Dug into it a little bit here: https://nograssintheclouds.substack.com/p/why-did-one-of-the-best-teams-in
Saka making Dan burn look like a fool
From open play?!?
Is it time to start betting the under in games selected for the chat? People are asking....
I don't find the edges. I just create them.
Great jinx
Is Mourinho Pelosi or McConnell?
... both?
He's also Newt Gingrich
Boris Johnson?
2 parties, 1 system
viktor orban, speaking from experience.
once a young, fresh mind with the prospect of ,breaking the wheel' slowly turning on his ideas and becoming obsessed with an opposition-picture (pep=soros, lol :D)
not with the same degree of success, though
A chance!
How legit/not legit is Jack Harrison?
He's decent, imo. Pretty good athlete. Big dude. Runs a lot. And is currently on 0.49 npxG+xA, which is 28th in the league and better than Sterling and Pulisic.
Easily the best Wake Forest product since Corben Bone.
Lol is he a WF product??
Wild. Had no idea. Also on loan from city?
Gatorade Player of the Year!
nycfc legend!
My favorite current game is which Leeds players will still start if they stay up and go on a mini spending spree, and I think he makes it
looked better than villa in yankee stadium
he gives me such a good-not-great, but performing at a very high level when needed SAF-player vibes. you know, those lineup graphics that come up every now and then on twitter about how good Ferguson was, that he could win with these type of players as well
Has 4-2-3-1 officially became the formation of the "I have no ideas, just roll the ball out there and play" manager?
I think it goes like this: manager has no clue what to do --> switches to a back 3 --> team isn't quite as terrible (perhaps only because there's no tape of them playing with three at the back) --> team becomes terrible --> manager switches to a 4-2-3-1
Bellerin ducking on that cross is the weirdest thing I’ve seen in awhile and somehow it worked out
Banger from Alioski
Atkinson really has the vibe of an old grumpy guy out for a jog
Do you rate Yves Bissouma? If so, what big clubs should be trying to buy him?
Looks like Liverpool might already be trying to: https://www.espn.com/soccer/soccer-transfers/story/4267544/liverpool-track-yves-bissouma-as-wijnaldum-replacement-sources
I'm a fan -- great ball winner, great dribbler. His passing is decent enough, too: doesn't lose the ball much, moves it forward at a decent clip. Pretty much every team can use a player who dribbles, wins the ball, and doesn't give it away.
Over-under 3 more postponed PL games before February?
Eek. Three feels like the right number to set it at. I'm gonna go under, though.
I dig these Arsenal kits, the Villa kits from yesterday (Kappa branding is classic) and the West Ham third/Funeral Fit kit.
Any other favorites from this season’s crops for y’all?
I'm not a fan of the wide, over-lapping collar on the Nike kits.
The spurs green ones are growing on me bc of that pink/black trim
I actually love the maligned City away kits. Design is gorgeous, when looked closely. On our screens, it's just white, but from close enough you realize the blueness of the shirt. Just immaculate, I thought.
Right on. I like their third kits this year too.
I'm biased but I love Everton's away kits. Snapped up a James shirt immediately.
Has anyone got the numbers on lineup turnover for all the PL teams? Off the top of my head I'd imagine Brighton are higher up in terms of variance in starting xi but I'm probably wrong.
Couldn't find it, unfortunately. They've used a league-average number of players -- 22 -- but that doesn't tell you much. My guess is that they haven't changed at an especially high rate, though.
Yeah could be bias on my part as I like their team and Potter as a manager. I can double check w/ my sources though and get back to ya on this one ;)
What did West Brom just do? Where was that against Liverpool?
Given that I'm not watching, what did they do?
it appears romaine sawyers also has michael's parlay
Yeah, I suppose watching Goal Rush isn't quite the theme today. They played a back pass to the center of the goal only the goalie was yards outside of the frame. A howler of an own goal.
Brighton playing with no out-and-out forwards? Mac Allister is a mid, and Jahanbakhsh primarily a mid/sometime winger
Can someone please explain the rationale behind the delayed offside flag? Why?
Since it might be the wrong call, which would be overturned by VAR, they're encouraging play to come to its conclusion. I.e. an incorrect delayed flag wouldn't prevent a goal from being scored.
Hasenhuttl out here live from prison
Any MLS teams bid for Messi yet? :)
Brighton seemed so fun at the start (we did a chat for Everton-Brighton, if I recall correctly).
No Maupay, Trossard, or March in the starting XI definitely reduces their xFun
We need an xFun table!
Yeah. Not to mention Lamptey! Shit.
Arsenal fans, just superimpose Welbz head onto Fredo in that gif with Michael now, as it'll save you time later. "Welbz, you broke my heart. You broke my heart."
In other news what is this leeds backline??
I think they used that same formation against Burnley and got a clean, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯