I think it's selection and coaching. City don't demonstrate the fight back that can really help turn the tide when they're on a bad run. Look at Pep's face when they're off their game. Who has replaced Kompany as the true "captain" of the side?
They're devastating when feeling confident but struggle to recover from wobbles.
Since Pep got to City, they've conceded more xG than they created just 11 times. This, per Stats Perform, was the second-biggest rout after the loss to Chelsea in June. My guess is that they'll still be fine: too much talent, Pep is too good of a coach, the other teams in the Premier League other than Liverpool (and Leicester?) aren't very good. But! Of those 11 games, the four worst have all happened in 2020. This team is vulnerable to an absolute shellacking in a way they never used to be. It's not just random anymore.
Anyway, thanks to everyone who hopped in on short notice. We'll do it again soon. Enjoy your days, all.
What about NPXG how was that today just curious because the penalties feel like a massive part of today's XG total and how much easier is that to fix going forward?
It's not VAR it's the laws of the game. VAR just allows you to review the incident and make a final decision based on the LOTG, therefore if you don't like the decisions - change the laws!
do you think alot of players are good enough to start aiming for hands just to create set pieces... basically as a jaded NBA fan i dont wanna see a James Harden-ification of tactics
Not good enough to create, like, eight penalties a game, but think of it this way: if you're creating one extra penalty for your team per game by driving in low balls at chest height instead of more traditional crosses that almost never lead to anything anyway, you're creating an extra 29 expected goals per season. Last season, that basically takes you from being Brighton to being Chelsea.
after the man city goal, they turned into Spain vs Russia in the 2018 WC. Lots of side to side passing. Mendy has seen that pass now like 45x this half and 1/3 of those passes fall short. snooze fest
This is typically the situation where City just drown the other team in deep possession and lots of shots. That is ... not happening at all. They've moved on from the double pivot, too, so that's no longer an excuse. Maybe Pep actually needs a no. 9.
I love this conspiracy, my guy. He's good enough to play for ... anyone. Like Marc said, Real would be amazing. He's also a Real-type player to me: big, fast, physical, direct.
For a world-class player in his prime there is very little "Will he or won't he" discussion about Son, it seems to be a given that he'll be a Spurs player—perhaps that's also b/c of Son's personality and perceived loyalty... I wonder if he'll tire of Jose's mind games (and Tottenham's lack of silverware) and seek greener pastures elsewhere. Wolfsburg --> Leverkusen --> Tottenham was a natural progression, but has he hit his ceiling in North London? Could always go to Bayern I guess...
Ryan, how do you feel about non-shot expected goals? Before the Vardy goal, it seemed Leicester was doing just OK by having on shot on target, but they generated dangerous opportunities that never materialized to anything that might show up on NSxG but not expected goals.
I like it, definitely provides an added layer of context, and it's why I like looking at passes into the penalty area. But, ultimately, the point of the game is to score goals and if you don't shoot, you can't score. No numbers come close to telling the whole story and there are always exceptions, both in a game and over a season, but I do think, in general, the number of shots combined with some accounting for quality/distance is generally a pretty good proxy for how a team is doing.
I'm watching on a reddit stream that gives me Sky Sports coverage, which means no fake crowd noises. I don't think I'll ever be able to go back to NBCSN's fake bullshit.
No idea if the numbers back this up, but City always seem to look more vulnerable in the 2nd half. If you can survive that first blow, you have a fighting chance.
I expected Leicester to look a lot messier without Ndidi. This is the first I've watched of them this season but they seem to have added much needed depth. Or maybe Man City are just making them look good.
It's tough to really tell against City, but the pass to Vardy that set up the pen is the kind of thing they produce really consistently, which offsets the other longer-range shots their midfielders attempt pretty frequently.. They have way more of the ball against most other teams, so they're creating these these through-ball based chances more often. It's not easy to do that, especially when you have a lot of the ball, which Leicester typically do. They also press pretty well when they're playing a team that isn't City or Liverpool.
The Newcastle goal doesn't even require a rule change to make sure that specific thing doesn't happen again. Just call a foul for shoving Winks. Refs need to get their shit together on this.
For as much as I'm here for the Jose schadenfreude, that handball call at the end of the Spurs-Newcastle match was really poor judgement. How crazy is it to think that PGMOL are deliberately being asses about this in the same way they were asses about using screen review last season? The handball rule is poorly written, okay, but that doesn't mean that common sense can't prevail. This smells of the same "we're the real victims"-ness that MLB umps exude.
I forget what the rule was exactly, but in the NFL a year or two ago I think refs just stopped calling a certain type of pass-interference that would've made the game unwatchable ... despite it being in the rulebook. Maybe some of that is needed?
Lmfao wow. Vardy is so, so good still.
Am I the only one who looks at Manchester City's team beyond the attackers and thinks, "Uh, these players just aren't very good"?
Man City has all the money in the world, and Jonny Evans would still be their best centre back
Is John Stones really that washed now?
What happened to Laporte?
I'm guessing injured?
I think it's selection and coaching. City don't demonstrate the fight back that can really help turn the tide when they're on a bad run. Look at Pep's face when they're off their game. Who has replaced Kompany as the true "captain" of the side?
They're devastating when feeling confident but struggle to recover from wobbles.
Since Pep got to City, they've conceded more xG than they created just 11 times. This, per Stats Perform, was the second-biggest rout after the loss to Chelsea in June. My guess is that they'll still be fine: too much talent, Pep is too good of a coach, the other teams in the Premier League other than Liverpool (and Leicester?) aren't very good. But! Of those 11 games, the four worst have all happened in 2020. This team is vulnerable to an absolute shellacking in a way they never used to be. It's not just random anymore.
Anyway, thanks to everyone who hopped in on short notice. We'll do it again soon. Enjoy your days, all.
What about NPXG how was that today just curious because the penalties feel like a massive part of today's XG total and how much easier is that to fix going forward?
Leicester bring James Maddison off the bench, and Man City bring on ... Rory Delap's son. Something is not right.
I really want to say that Man City don't have a ton of depth, but I know they're missing a lot of injured guys.
No Ndidi or Ricardo Pereira for LC too though, two starters
Yeah, plus no Maddison in the starting XI. They've been harder hit than City, imo.
I guess it also seems weird on paper that Man City, a team with title aspirations, are starting eric garcia and nathan ake at CB.
What do you all think of this? https://twitter.com/RWhittall/status/1310240527539937280
If you turn deliberate handballs into penalties, I think Richard is on to something.
The actual answer is to just not have VAR, and that is something I fully support. We should ritually destroy the machines.
It's not VAR it's the laws of the game. VAR just allows you to review the incident and make a final decision based on the LOTG, therefore if you don't like the decisions - change the laws!
do you think alot of players are good enough to start aiming for hands just to create set pieces... basically as a jaded NBA fan i dont wanna see a James Harden-ification of tactics
Not good enough to create, like, eight penalties a game, but think of it this way: if you're creating one extra penalty for your team per game by driving in low balls at chest height instead of more traditional crosses that almost never lead to anything anyway, you're creating an extra 29 expected goals per season. Last season, that basically takes you from being Brighton to being Chelsea.
What if penalties just occurred from where the foul happened instead of the spot
The two ideas I like are that and making unintentional handballs free kicks from the spot of the initial ball rather than the spot of the infraction.
The Fernandinho-Rodri double pivot is making me sleepy for the second time in a week.
after the man city goal, they turned into Spain vs Russia in the 2018 WC. Lots of side to side passing. Mendy has seen that pass now like 45x this half and 1/3 of those passes fall short. snooze fest
Vardy's XG on the season is basically all just penalties. Incredible
Also: wtf is Mahrez wearing gloves (c) Roy Keane voice
the new Teddy Bridgewater?
Has MENDY officially surpassed DEMBELE as the most prolific world football surname
On Transfermarkt, there are 119 hits for "Mendy" and only 46 for "Dembele". Neither one comes close to Silva, though: 1,500 hits.
SILVA is unfair though b/c it probably counts people like Roberto Carlos, who has a SILVA in his full name.
It does. But I'm not going through and counting all the actual Silvas lol. We'll give the W to the Mendys.
the SILVA dynasty would like to have a word...
As soon as you typed that, another Ayew brother was signed to a club somewhere
Maddison looks more and more like Becks every season doesn't he
Can't wait to see him and Sonny together at Madrid.
You're forgettin Grealish
This is typically the situation where City just drown the other team in deep possession and lots of shots. That is ... not happening at all. They've moved on from the double pivot, too, so that's no longer an excuse. Maybe Pep actually needs a no. 9.
Maybe Leicester is just awesome and the true 3rd best team in the league?
And who would be no. 2 in this scenario?
1. Everton
2. Leeds
3. Leicester City
Probably still City right? Feels silly to discount the team with 3 times as many shots and 3 times as much possession
In the tight spaces, who else except De Bruyne is supposed to feed the threaded pass? This seems like the perfect game to bring on David Silva.
Delayed stat update:
Shots (on target): City 5 (3), Leicester 1 (1)
xG: City 0.33, Leicester 0.79
Final-third passes: City 110, Leicester 16
Penalty-area passes: City 5, Leicester 3
City conceded their first shot in the 37th minute. Also: it was a penalty and now the game is tied, 1-1.
Here's a question after seeing Sonny inexplicably subbed at HT, on the heels of him scoring four last week but Jose insisting that Harry was MOTM.
What might be Son's next team? What would he do if Barca came knocking...
I love this conspiracy, my guy. He's good enough to play for ... anyone. Like Marc said, Real would be amazing. He's also a Real-type player to me: big, fast, physical, direct.
Man I wish I could be conspiratorial like this but he did his hammy. He's done for a while.
Not a big list of teams that can afford 28 year old stars. Could see him at Juventus
if i could go back in time id beg Real to buy him instead of Hazard
For a world-class player in his prime there is very little "Will he or won't he" discussion about Son, it seems to be a given that he'll be a Spurs player—perhaps that's also b/c of Son's personality and perceived loyalty... I wonder if he'll tire of Jose's mind games (and Tottenham's lack of silverware) and seek greener pastures elsewhere. Wolfsburg --> Leverkusen --> Tottenham was a natural progression, but has he hit his ceiling in North London? Could always go to Bayern I guess...
Sorry.. met Hamburg!
WOW.
I am guaranteed sure Vardy pumped himself up for this game by listening to crowds callin his bird a grass on full volume in the locker room
Not related to this game but have to ask: Is Ryan scared of Everton yet
If they had, like, 8 or 9 other players than the ones they currently have, then ... uh, no, I still wouldn't be scared.
What a great day for me, a Bayern and Spurs fan.
You must've had some strange weekdays last fall ...
I know better than anyone what Bayern does against teams in crisis. I was not at all excited for what I knew would happen.
Ryan is so giddy rn, The Jets can win the first pick on the back of a Gase tank job and Liverpool going back to back. What could go wrong?
These penalties have all been the same. Hilarious.
English players don't dive tho ;)
Vardy Party
Ryan, how do you feel about non-shot expected goals? Before the Vardy goal, it seemed Leicester was doing just OK by having on shot on target, but they generated dangerous opportunities that never materialized to anything that might show up on NSxG but not expected goals.
I like it, definitely provides an added layer of context, and it's why I like looking at passes into the penalty area. But, ultimately, the point of the game is to score goals and if you don't shoot, you can't score. No numbers come close to telling the whole story and there are always exceptions, both in a game and over a season, but I do think, in general, the number of shots combined with some accounting for quality/distance is generally a pretty good proxy for how a team is doing.
Kinda into this burgundy kit
I'm watching on a reddit stream that gives me Sky Sports coverage, which means no fake crowd noises. I don't think I'll ever be able to go back to NBCSN's fake bullshit.
No idea if the numbers back this up, but City always seem to look more vulnerable in the 2nd half. If you can survive that first blow, you have a fighting chance.
Was Castagne the buy of the season?
Damn dude, already turning on Gabriel and Willian like that?
sell Chillwell for 50m, buy Castagne 25m. thats good business
Timothy is awesome
I expected Leicester to look a lot messier without Ndidi. This is the first I've watched of them this season but they seem to have added much needed depth. Or maybe Man City are just making them look good.
Gonna need them to take more than one shot in a half before I start giving em too much credit.
OK then!
Called it! But actually I was more just speaking defensively. This feels like 2016 Leicester on attack
Fernandinho looks slow and disinterested out there today.
i know Leicester are some level of "good" but what are they good at? i cant call it from the eyes
It's tough to really tell against City, but the pass to Vardy that set up the pen is the kind of thing they produce really consistently, which offsets the other longer-range shots their midfielders attempt pretty frequently.. They have way more of the ball against most other teams, so they're creating these these through-ball based chances more often. It's not easy to do that, especially when you have a lot of the ball, which Leicester typically do. They also press pretty well when they're playing a team that isn't City or Liverpool.
How many times has a relegated player (ake) started for a team with 80+ immediately the following year? Seems unprecedented.
Might be! Forty teams have hit 80, so 3 percent of the time sounds about right.
BANG
That was sick
The Newcastle goal doesn't even require a rule change to make sure that specific thing doesn't happen again. Just call a foul for shoving Winks. Refs need to get their shit together on this.
Laporte must not be fit? No way he wants to play Ake and Garcia together...right?
Also: These teams are playing like five games a week at this point. We're gonna see a lot of great players not starting games they normally would.
Let’s talk handball rule. Never liked the old intent part, because you can’t be in someone’s head. But clearly something is wrong
For as much as I'm here for the Jose schadenfreude, that handball call at the end of the Spurs-Newcastle match was really poor judgement. How crazy is it to think that PGMOL are deliberately being asses about this in the same way they were asses about using screen review last season? The handball rule is poorly written, okay, but that doesn't mean that common sense can't prevail. This smells of the same "we're the real victims"-ness that MLB umps exude.
I forget what the rule was exactly, but in the NFL a year or two ago I think refs just stopped calling a certain type of pass-interference that would've made the game unwatchable ... despite it being in the rulebook. Maybe some of that is needed?
Sure, that's the kind of practical approach I'd expect... if PGMOL weren't seemingly running a long-term plan to get IFAB off their lawn.
hoffenheim!!!
#FlickOut