Given the participants, we shouldn’t count on it! Newcastle aren’t very good; Liverpool are very good; you already knew all of that. Perhaps, then, the way to look at this match — the way to convince yourself that what we’re about to see could conceivably be classified as “interesting” — is as a chance to show that what happened to Liverpool against West Brom was a blip rather than a burgeoning problem.
While Steve Bruce’s team isn’t objectively relegation-quality — only the fourth-worst expected-goal differential in the league, per Stats Perform — they’re the most passive team team in England not named “West Brom”. Only the Baggies take fewer shots, control less possession, and complete fewer passes into the penalty area, and no one presses less aggressively than than Magpies, who rank last in the league in PPDA. And only Tottenham — eek! — have a worse margin of final-third turnovers, or “possessions lost in the defensive third minus possessions won in the attacking third”. For the most part, you can expect teams that don’t have much of the ball anywhere on the field to at least counter-attack at speed, but Newcastle don’t really do that, either, as the pace of their average possession (meters per second the ball moves up the field) is roughly league-average. They’re barely doing anything, and it’s just enough to get by.
Liverpool, meanwhile, rank first in final-third turnover margin and in passes into the penalty area and in expected goals per match. Yet, they only generated a single-shot on target against West Brom over the weekend. Breaking down teams that don’t want to attack used to be a big problem for Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool; we’ll see if it still is today. Kick off is at 3 PM EST. See you soon.
-Shots (on target): Newcastle 8 (2), Liverpool 11 (4)
-xG: Newcastle 0.57, Liverpool 1.4
-Final-third passes: Newcastle 38, Liverpool 115
-Penalty-area passes: Newcastle 7, Liverpool 18
Crap first half, but Liverpool should've won. This and the WBA game were two games that Liverpool won last year -- with the exact kind of underlying performance. I guess I'd be a little concerned that they couldn't generate more shots today or more chances in either of the past two games, but everyone looks tired and the past two matches are two matches that typically produce wins. Weird season -- this is what title races were like 12 years ago: top teams drop points almost every week. Four dropped points in two games two seasons ago would've seemed like an absolute disaster. This year, it means Liverpool are probably still title favorites. Newcastle, on the other hand, defended well in the first half and showed some spice on the counter. Second half? More of a hang-on-for-dear-life kinda thing.
Metaphorical Hawaiian Ham Recipient: Karl Darlow. He's saved about 4.5 goals over average over the last two seasons, and the good form continued today. LFC's finishing was off, but the real KD was on his game tonight.
That ends our three-day run of chats ... and solidifies my ability to turn any matchup into the worst game you've ever seen. Thanks for all the fun and thoughtful commentary. I might've switched to table tennis had I watched this garbage alone. We'll do another one soon. Happy New Year to all. Shane Long is Howard Dean!
Just crushed a post-Christmas Ted Lasso binge and I really resonated with the show's message that there are only like six managers who have any sort of tactical influence on their team, and the rest of management just comes down to vibes. I think you put Lasso on Chelsea and they are pretty much in the same spot they are today
A sign that Newcastle's plan is working: 28 percent of Liverpool's final-third passes were crosses in the first half. Their season-long average is just 13 percent.
Yes, need to drive into the middle of the park with some speed. Milner for Ox at 60 minutes and then Jones for Thiago at 70 minutes. Jones needs someone to play 1-2s with and Firmino is drawing too much CB attention.
premiership joe flacco aka jordan henderson watching thiago pass the ball with his jaw on the floor like the first time we saw megan fox in transformers
Latest from the Premier League, per Rob Harris: "The Premier League has not discussed pausing the season and has no plans to do so. The League continues to have confidence in its COVID-19 protocols to enable fixtures to be played as scheduled, and these protocols continue to have the full backing of Government."
In theory, I like the idea of using Nat Phillips only against battering-ram teams like Burnley and West Brom. One version of Newcastle fits that description; not the one with Callum Wilson, though.
Do we like Fabinho sticking a boot in there or just let Allison deal with it? Seems more risky to stick the foot in there and deflect it, but I'm not a soccer player.
I think all players are trained to try to block the shot if they can. My guess is that's the percentage play, too. Even if it's deflected, the keeper can still save it.
My dad thinks that soccer broadcasts need a new camera angle. He ... wants the camera to be closer to the players but also not zoomed in so that you see less of the field (?). Feasibility of that specific idea aside, what say you all?
they could probably suspend something from a wire like they do in NFL to manage a cam like this but also maybe your dad just needs to visit the optometrist (no shots we're all a shell of our former selves)...does NBC pick up this feed from Sky or whoever is producing in UK? or is this NBC specific production?
I'm not sure about a different angle, but there are some stadiums that you really can't see much when the ball comes to the near side. Standardize stadium size!
I had the (very dumb) idea the other day of allowing stadiums to go with different goal sizes within a sanctioned range. Like how baseball stadiums have different distances to the wall. Would make for some atrocious soccer, but I'd be in favor of it for the Carabao cup or something.
Mourinho put a curse on the games you chose for discussion threads as soon as you initiated the honorary jamon iberico. All games we watch together are now Mourinho-ey.
a drunk newcastle supporter told me he voted for brexit while i was trying to watch LFC Sevilla at a pub in largo, portugal like 3 yrs ago...hated them ever since.
Thiago is the type of player that could make a difference when teams park the bus against Liverpool. When LFC break through, its when the defense is re-positioning themselves from let-to-right making room for players to get in behind
do we overrate the in game parts of managing like team selection, tactics, subs etc and underrate the other 90% of coaching like training, rest, film etc?
I'd say team selection is properly rated, tactics are wildly overrated, subs are underrated, and all the other behind the scenes stuff -- motivation, what gets trained, how intense training is, etc. -- is underrated, too.
its wild that even w/ all the resources and a manager that is widely considered one of the few who actually makes a diff...LFC still doesnt aggressively sub
Subbing players is one of those things where a manager may feel that having to repeatedly explain why to certain players just isn't worth the hassle. That's a lot of sulking a week!
my wife instructed me to pick up a new years brisket at half so excuse me while i put on my lace outfit that perfectly matches my holiday decorations and go acquire some meats
what are there other examples of guys as mediocre phillips playing in starting 11s w/ as much talent as LFC...reminds me of mario chalmers on the big 3 heat
This is spot on and also Mario chalmers slander. The reverse of this question would be “who are the worst players to have (positive) championship-deciding moments of immortality” a la chalmers, fisher, etc.
It would probably have to have been from a relatively lesser league (not coincidentally like Scotland), but are there any good, recent parallels for Rangers' level of league dominance this year?
Should have been clearer that I was specifically thinking about goals for and against. Celtic will almost certainly be closer than 31 points in the table; however, PSG only scored a paltry 5.4 goals for each conceded - Rangers at 11.2 per goal conceded thus far.
Red Star Belgrade (Serbia) aren't far off, with 51 G and 7 GA through 19 games so far. Bodo Glimt were also putting up comical attacking numbers when they still had Hauge - 103 G, 32 GA. But the most dominant team this year? Bayern Munich's women's team. 40G, 1 GA, and a perfect 12-0 record.
Me: midfielders aren't that valuable compared to other positions
Also me: [has a full back tattoo of Thiago]
Don't know about you guys but I'm now using these chats as a distraction from the awful soccer I'm supposed to be watching ...
I get so excited to see "1 new reply"
Feel like the euros are going to be apocalyptically bad.
And with the new covid UK variant (you're welcome) this season may not end until this time next year.
The last few weeks have not been good. Villa are fun. Leeds...
Watching Nat Phillips try a 30-yard pass while Thiago is on the field is like watching, I don't know, a tree try to read the bible?
with paul the apostle sitting right there!!!
lol
cat_playing_piano.gif
Like watching any non Steph Curry Warrior shoot a 3 this season
Nat Philipps is the Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, fyi
One day John Fetterman will have enough name recognition.... one day
Great to see Nat and Thiago out there together.
I wonder if Thiago dreamed about this day. Play with Nat, trade jerseys with Longstaff
and come on for milner nonetheless
FT Stat Update:
-Shots (on target): Newcastle 8 (2), Liverpool 11 (4)
-xG: Newcastle 0.57, Liverpool 1.4
-Final-third passes: Newcastle 38, Liverpool 115
-Penalty-area passes: Newcastle 7, Liverpool 18
Crap first half, but Liverpool should've won. This and the WBA game were two games that Liverpool won last year -- with the exact kind of underlying performance. I guess I'd be a little concerned that they couldn't generate more shots today or more chances in either of the past two games, but everyone looks tired and the past two matches are two matches that typically produce wins. Weird season -- this is what title races were like 12 years ago: top teams drop points almost every week. Four dropped points in two games two seasons ago would've seemed like an absolute disaster. This year, it means Liverpool are probably still title favorites. Newcastle, on the other hand, defended well in the first half and showed some spice on the counter. Second half? More of a hang-on-for-dear-life kinda thing.
Metaphorical Hawaiian Ham Recipient: Karl Darlow. He's saved about 4.5 goals over average over the last two seasons, and the good form continued today. LFC's finishing was off, but the real KD was on his game tonight.
That ends our three-day run of chats ... and solidifies my ability to turn any matchup into the worst game you've ever seen. Thanks for all the fun and thoughtful commentary. I might've switched to table tennis had I watched this garbage alone. We'll do another one soon. Happy New Year to all. Shane Long is Howard Dean!
My xG guess of 1.4-.8 was so close!
Klopp made three subs before injury time. Wow.
What I'm asking is: did he?
Need a pundit to say Liverpool only won the title due to Covid to spice this up a little.
Thiago time!?!
Steve Bruce is Mike Pence
Just crushed a post-Christmas Ted Lasso binge and I really resonated with the show's message that there are only like six managers who have any sort of tactical influence on their team, and the rest of management just comes down to vibes. I think you put Lasso on Chelsea and they are pretty much in the same spot they are today
You don't think they'd be better?
I'd have paid an actual Apple TV+ subscription to watch him deal with the Kepa situation
"kick it harder, timo!"
USNMT abroad yedlin earns a foul in the attacking half send tweet
Given our player pool, I would love to seem him as a poor man's Kyle Walker as RCB in a back 3
american soccer players just stopped using a stopper sweeper combo in defense like 2 years ago idk if theyre ready for the 3 at the back
Brooks is German though, so it could work?
HEAVY on the earned
A sign that Newcastle's plan is working: 28 percent of Liverpool's final-third passes were crosses in the first half. Their season-long average is just 13 percent.
Yes, need to drive into the middle of the park with some speed. Milner for Ox at 60 minutes and then Jones for Thiago at 70 minutes. Jones needs someone to play 1-2s with and Firmino is drawing too much CB attention.
and yet the middle of the park appears pretty open...
Mathematics, man...
HT Stat Update:
-Shots (on target): Newcastle 6 (1), Liverpool 4 (3)
-xG, per Stats Perform: Newcastle 0.49, Liverpool 0.50
-Final-third passes: Newcastle 26, Liverpool 48
-Penalty-area passes: Newcastle 6, Liverpool 10
Moral of the first half: Newcastle are outshooting Liverpool.
More conversation about meat bought for Reguilon by Mourinho: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/13604048/sergio-reguilon-mourinho-pig-christmas/amp/
iconic outfit matched to fake xmas tree in that photo as well
The journalist who dropped “suckling pig” into that headline tho...
Food a liitle different?... They don't have chips and curry sauce in Spain?
Spices too. Completely innovative.
Just two dudes who absolutely love gifting pig parts
Love to see Iberians looking out for each other
My infant son loves screens and always watches tv when it’s on. He turned away from this game 15 mins ago
Already a wiser man than his father and his friends.
ass cheek out alert
come for the data-informed, thoughtful discussions. stay for the politicians-as-soccer-personalities and alerts about exposed ass cheeks.
Lmao
The hard cut straight to ass cheek with no context was really well done
i missed the bare butt. damn.
premiership joe flacco aka jordan henderson watching thiago pass the ball with his jaw on the floor like the first time we saw megan fox in transformers
This made me laugh for a solid 30 seconds
need thiago to come on and reinvigorate chat
Should we do strikers-as-politicians today?
anthony weiner as giroud
benzema as eric greitens ?
Benzema is Eliot Spitzer
Lol
Rob Ford is Maradona. Jimmy Carter is Diego.
this is the one
Salah as Gov Schwarzenegger
lmao
Haaland in 2004 Obama
is mitch mcconnell more saurez or diego costa?
given that he's still going strong, i say suarez
More like Grinch...
Angela Merkel = Lewandowski
Jamie Vardy = Maggie Thatcher
Clint Dempsey as LBJ?
zlatan as rasputin
Aguero as Ted Kennedy
Morata as De Blasio
DiCanio as Strom Thurmond
You can see Morata doing this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olbwkLUrsLY
Underrated comment
does match quality matter when the only viewing alternative is the duke's mayo bowl?
TWANG.
Why no Rebecca Lowe? Thing 1 and Thing 2 male presenters just highlight how much better she is.
Latest from the Premier League, per Rob Harris: "The Premier League has not discussed pausing the season and has no plans to do so. The League continues to have confidence in its COVID-19 protocols to enable fixtures to be played as scheduled, and these protocols continue to have the full backing of Government."
Looks like they learned nothing from the first time this happened!
Learning and profits don't mesh, who knew?
The virus may have some thoughts about this.
Nat Philips showing us why he's, uh, Nat Phillips there.
In theory, I like the idea of using Nat Phillips only against battering-ram teams like Burnley and West Brom. One version of Newcastle fits that description; not the one with Callum Wilson, though.
how is nat phillips not on newcastle
He was the best West Ham center back in the West Ham–Liverpool match.
Do we like Fabinho sticking a boot in there or just let Allison deal with it? Seems more risky to stick the foot in there and deflect it, but I'm not a soccer player.
I think all players are trained to try to block the shot if they can. My guess is that's the percentage play, too. Even if it's deflected, the keeper can still save it.
My dad thinks that soccer broadcasts need a new camera angle. He ... wants the camera to be closer to the players but also not zoomed in so that you see less of the field (?). Feasibility of that specific idea aside, what say you all?
Something like the view at Fulham? Not sure if it was always like that or a result of the construction on the stands.
I was just looking into this when LFC played Fulham a few weeks ago. Anything within 10 yards of the half line on the near side is annoying
That idea sucks, but I'd pay (some) money for an All22 style angle that you could go back and watch later.
damn, no respect for my dad huh?
they could probably suspend something from a wire like they do in NFL to manage a cam like this but also maybe your dad just needs to visit the optometrist (no shots we're all a shell of our former selves)...does NBC pick up this feed from Sky or whoever is producing in UK? or is this NBC specific production?
I think he really just wants a bigger TV.
Sounds like he's laying the groundwork for a trip to Anfield. I see you, Mr. O. I'm in.
I'm not sure about a different angle, but there are some stadiums that you really can't see much when the ball comes to the near side. Standardize stadium size!
I had the (very dumb) idea the other day of allowing stadiums to go with different goal sizes within a sanctioned range. Like how baseball stadiums have different distances to the wall. Would make for some atrocious soccer, but I'd be in favor of it for the Carabao cup or something.
This is basically like MLB testing random stuff out in indy ball. Was it Mourinho who realized a goal was too big at a random away Europa qualifier?
lol yes
Salah with a forgettable game. Is Jota's injury more difficult to overcome than van Dijk's?
That casual cross field diagonal from Thiago literally made me call out with pleasure
I shed a single Xabi Alonso tear on that pass
"when the lamb is lost in the mountains, they cry. sometime come the mother, sometime come thiago"
Remember when Liverpool couldn't miss against Palace? Good times.
I wish Spurs played this Liverpool team and not "perfect header at the death by Firminho" Liverpool
YES I KNOW WE'RE ALL JUST BITTER
Spurs have been broken since!
Mourinho put a curse on the games you chose for discussion threads as soon as you initiated the honorary jamon iberico. All games we watch together are now Mourinho-ey.
We have to do Leeds-Tottenham next. To break the spell.
If that game is 0-0 they should just bring the international break forward
Mane's first touch is always incredible. always able to use it to turn or move the ball forward. never static.
Yedlin was 5 years too late. Promising American right backs are the new English midfielders these days.
We'll always have that one half against Eden Hazard, though.
a drunk newcastle supporter told me he voted for brexit while i was trying to watch LFC Sevilla at a pub in largo, portugal like 3 yrs ago...hated them ever since.
Was it this guy? https://www.theguardian.com/football/2013/oct/24/newcastle-fan-jailed-punching-police-horse-rogerson
Ryan: any ideas on how to monetize your position as the cooler for games?
Ryan H Macy
Lol
City being 7 points back with two games in hand has the feeling of inevitability
nothing a city sheffield ngitc group watch cant solve
Is there anything Henderson likes more than giving instructions after making a sideways pass?
absolutely cleaning you out in practice and then telling you to "get on with it". played with a dozen guys like him
shaqiri hair trainsplant looking primo
wait 'til he takes his short off
*shirt, dammit
Calling it a Power Cube is so much nicer than chode.
really wondered where you were trying to take this comment...
Did he get a rec from Klopp?
He went to Rooney and Lebron’s plug guy
he got the full jude law
Thiago is the type of player that could make a difference when teams park the bus against Liverpool. When LFC break through, its when the defense is re-positioning themselves from let-to-right making room for players to get in behind
do we overrate the in game parts of managing like team selection, tactics, subs etc and underrate the other 90% of coaching like training, rest, film etc?
I'd say team selection is properly rated, tactics are wildly overrated, subs are underrated, and all the other behind the scenes stuff -- motivation, what gets trained, how intense training is, etc. -- is underrated, too.
over coaching on the sidelines, a staple of the arteta and lampard regimes, is an underrated detriment to the uninitiated
its wild that even w/ all the resources and a manager that is widely considered one of the few who actually makes a diff...LFC still doesnt aggressively sub
Subbing players is one of those things where a manager may feel that having to repeatedly explain why to certain players just isn't worth the hassle. That's a lot of sulking a week!
(save the chat, jurgen!)
What's the earliest Klopp has made a non-injury sub this season?
Does Thiago liven up this game? Does Zidane? How about Joan of Arc?
my wife instructed me to pick up a new years brisket at half so excuse me while i put on my lace outfit that perfectly matches my holiday decorations and go acquire some meats
Suckling pig, bro
It seems that starting attacks with Nat Phillips is suboptimal...
Did Mo have any idea he was onside?
Karl Darrow is a good enough keeper to have a big team pick him up as a backup. That might be the nicest thing I can say about newcastle’s team
He’s impressed every time I’ve watched him
what are there other examples of guys as mediocre phillips playing in starting 11s w/ as much talent as LFC...reminds me of mario chalmers on the big 3 heat
Ryan Bertrand started and won a Champions League final ... as a winger. Gonna be tough to top that.
how many times a day does he start a sentence with "well against bayern we..."?
In relative terms, it's pretty wild that Jeremy Matthieu started 23 league matches for Barcelona's 14/15 treble winning side.
Seams like it’s fairly common in basketball TBH
This is spot on and also Mario chalmers slander. The reverse of this question would be “who are the worst players to have (positive) championship-deciding moments of immortality” a la chalmers, fisher, etc.
Divock Origi -- also tough to beat.
Nailed it
Zinchenko last year on City?
zinchenko was a reasonable sized transfer at least
Was that... a shot? 🥲
Depends how generous Opta's stringer is feeling today.
Thiago on the bench! I've only missed a few Liverpool games this season, but haven't seen him play yet.
It would probably have to have been from a relatively lesser league (not coincidentally like Scotland), but are there any good, recent parallels for Rangers' level of league dominance this year?
My mind initially went to the Eredivisie from two years ago, but it's still not close to Rangers: https://fbref.com/en/comps/23/2231/2018-2019-Dutch-Eredivisie-Stats
Best GD in the Big Five since 2008 is Bayern Munich in 2012-13: plus-2.35 per game.
OK I think I found our answer. Check out Torino here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1947%E2%80%9348_Serie_A
What does it mean that Triestina were guests?
Lucchese's coach was the OG Big Sam.
PSG won Ligue 1 by 31 points in 2015-16
Should have been clearer that I was specifically thinking about goals for and against. Celtic will almost certainly be closer than 31 points in the table; however, PSG only scored a paltry 5.4 goals for each conceded - Rangers at 11.2 per goal conceded thus far.
Red Star Belgrade (Serbia) aren't far off, with 51 G and 7 GA through 19 games so far. Bodo Glimt were also putting up comical attacking numbers when they still had Hauge - 103 G, 32 GA. But the most dominant team this year? Bayern Munich's women's team. 40G, 1 GA, and a perfect 12-0 record.
What team would be worst to win the league for neutrals? My ranking is:
- Man United
- Chelsea
- Spurs (my team, but this is my guess)
- Liverpool
- Man City
- Leicester
- Everton
- Villa
- Southampton
United to the of power of 10
As soon as I saw that Newcastle players man bun I knew they couldn't lose
The Leeds effect