I need to stop watching these games with the sound on during our chats -- otherwise it's just gonna be me getting upset by the announcers. Lee Dixon is now obsessed with the idea that City need to "take more long-range shots". They had 11 shots in the first half!
11 shots and they’re at 0.86 xG...I know shots quantity is an important metric, but they’re not getting quality shots. Haha I just love seeing pep Guardiola lose his shit. And mourinho is a god damn troll. As a neutral fan this is hilarious. Sucks for entertainment value, but understanding the background on both coaches makes it entertaining enough
Huge three points for Spurs, and they WERE clinical on the counter. But unless City are the dominant team of year's past -- and everyone agrees that they're not! -- then I'm not gonna get carried away with their title hopes based on this match. They got dominated in every phase of the match -- pitch control, shot creation, etc. -- other than "chance conversion". And all the other phases of the match are the things that actually predict future winning. Some see a tactical masterclass, others see a team that had a couple nice counters and finished well in a match they lose more than half of the time if it's played 100 more times.
As for City, they were ... fine. The biggest thing is that Pep as them playing a dialed-back attacking style, which is supposed to make the team more robust against counters. Except, based on today's evidence, they're still pretty bad a defending counters. Despite the result, I'd still pick City to win the title over Spurs -- but I'm probably not picking either one at this point!
Lotta fun today. Thanks as always for joining in. Enjoy your weekends!
Pretty texbook move there. CM picks up the ball, turns up from pressure, CF drops for the ball, RW runs into the space behind, chip over the top, goal. Shouldn't be that easy to score against the team that is still favored to win the league!
I mean, if City don't have a massive turnaround, I could see Leicester, Tottenham, and Chelsea all finishing above them (not betting on all three of them doing that, of course).
It must be this, cause they don't look like title contenders when I watch them. Then I check the stats and they aren't playing like it either (at least by xG Diff and xG Diff/90).
Oh yeah, that reason to be skeptical of Tottenham. One of the things Bill Connelly, this week's pod guest, likes to look at as a predictive factor is attacking-third turnover margin. In other words: how many possessions are you winning in the attacking third, vs how many are your opponents winning. Liverpool are plus-63 in first, then City are plus-32 in second in one fewer game. No one else is above 25. And Spurs, meanwhile, are minus-13, which is 15th in the league. We'll see if they can keep up their current performances if that doesn't change.
Tottenham won't have much turnover rate in final third as long as Alderweireld is at CB. They don't press and play deeper without Sanchez's recovery speed
Spurs do have some really dangerous-looking counter-attacking patterns here and there -- partially because they have superstar players leading them -- but they don't have enough of them.
Spurs haven't been top of the table since August 2014??????? Wow. At one point a couple years ago, they had the most points of any team over the previous 38 games.
Much better second-half for Spurs, btw. Three shots! And City haven't really created anything great, unlike the first half, which required a Gabby Jesus body-shield to keep the clean sheet.
At this point in the season...Brighton have a higher xG than Manchester City, West Ham and Aston Villa have a lower xGA than Liverpool, and Harry Kane has more assists than last year's top 3 combined. Early season variance is so fun.
The announcers on NBC are killing me right now. They're ascribing Mourinho's tactics to him being concerned about his players getting hurt and having to expend too much energy. Have they never watched a Mourinho game before??????
Not enough understanding of the evidence that you often expend more energy from your side when you force them to sit back and defend in their own final third (even if their compact and organized), as compared to turning the ball over quickly and at least maintaining some possession
I mean, this is every Spurs-City game of the past two years. Spurs somehow score with one or two chances, they shell into their box, get pummeled ... and somehow still win. It's been true with Poch and Mou!
I'm just thinking the Bergwijn near-missed shot on goal and the Kane disallowed goal as quality chances that don't count in those stats. Both otherwise quality chances in the box
I'm so used to seeing this script from Jose at this point that I've at least become numb-er to the anxiety of it. He'd rather nick the second goal from a City mistake than concede from pushing further up and yielding the mistake himself. His philosophy tells him, incorrectly, that he's less responsible if the opposition simply "outplays" his side
And if there's a handball or a penalty he can blame VAR. And if one of his defenders makes a mistake (because he's being forced to defend in his own box for 85 minutes), then he can blame his defenders. Brilliant, really.
I don't think you're missing anything. He got dusted on the goal, too. I forget who said this, but it's like Pep decided to replace Fernandinho with a younger version of himself.
MLS update: After a red card that led to 10 minutes of added on time(!) because the player that got red carded faked an injury trying to get out of it we go to extra time at 1-1.
Really tough to make a case for him as adding value to the team. There's not much he's doing that's visually obvious, and if he's having some kind of hidden effect, then the team would ... be better. Statistically, he passes the ball into the attacking third a ton, but that seems like something a ton of other players could do, too.
Understandably. The first goal they both stepped to Kane when only one of them should. Pretty simple mistake. Second one they do a poor job of defending a break and not shifting their line. First time I’ve wondered if Laporte is actually good at defending or if he’s just really good on the ball
Absolutely. I had to embrace it. No chance we were beating that barca team. Also, I love that every time Reguilon does something, Real Madrid gets a shout out
From a neutral perspective, what outcome here is more "fun" for the league? I hate Spurs to be rewarded for playing like this, but having them near the top would be nice? I guess??
Mourinho trying to be the front-runner would be kind of fun, I guess. Also, City can survive a loss here, so a Spurs win probably increases the number of title-challengers.
Hard to get the United and Liverpool games out of my head. They played both matches, well, like Spurs are playing this game right now. Also: they're even worse than Spurs re: final-third turnovers.
I don't know if it's tiredness or Spurs gameplan, but this is already dying down as a game similar to how City v Liverpool did. Except we're in the first half!
It's the 72nd minute, and Pep "We Need Five Subs" Guardiola hasn't made a sub.
I need to stop watching these games with the sound on during our chats -- otherwise it's just gonna be me getting upset by the announcers. Lee Dixon is now obsessed with the idea that City need to "take more long-range shots". They had 11 shots in the first half!
11 shots and they’re at 0.86 xG...I know shots quantity is an important metric, but they’re not getting quality shots. Haha I just love seeing pep Guardiola lose his shit. And mourinho is a god damn troll. As a neutral fan this is hilarious. Sucks for entertainment value, but understanding the background on both coaches makes it entertaining enough
It's not a City–Spurs match until VAR rules out a City goal.
FT stat update:
Shots (on target): City 22 (5), Spurs 4 (2)
xG: Cit 1.62, Spurs 0.64
Final-third passes: City 192, Spurs 37
Penalty-area passes: City 20, Spurs 4
Huge three points for Spurs, and they WERE clinical on the counter. But unless City are the dominant team of year's past -- and everyone agrees that they're not! -- then I'm not gonna get carried away with their title hopes based on this match. They got dominated in every phase of the match -- pitch control, shot creation, etc. -- other than "chance conversion". And all the other phases of the match are the things that actually predict future winning. Some see a tactical masterclass, others see a team that had a couple nice counters and finished well in a match they lose more than half of the time if it's played 100 more times.
As for City, they were ... fine. The biggest thing is that Pep as them playing a dialed-back attacking style, which is supposed to make the team more robust against counters. Except, based on today's evidence, they're still pretty bad a defending counters. Despite the result, I'd still pick City to win the title over Spurs -- but I'm probably not picking either one at this point!
Lotta fun today. Thanks as always for joining in. Enjoy your weekends!
This is insane! https://twitter.com/Reunewal/status/1330214068381229058
i just see it as payback for man city beating spurs 5-0 and AVB losing his job.
AVB truthers this is your safe space.
Pretty texbook move there. CM picks up the ball, turns up from pressure, CF drops for the ball, RW runs into the space behind, chip over the top, goal. Shouldn't be that easy to score against the team that is still favored to win the league!
How is anyone favoring them to win the league?
They're the betting favorites at every sportsbook!
I should make a bet then, cause I'm fairly sure they aren't winning the title this year.
That's the whole thing. Who ... is going to win? The City-Liverpool game was 50/50, and Liverpool's entire team is injured.
I mean, if City don't have a massive turnaround, I could see Leicester, Tottenham, and Chelsea all finishing above them (not betting on all three of them doing that, of course).
Turnaround might've started over a month ago. Take a look: https://fbref.com/en/squads/b8fd03ef/Manchester-City-Stats#all_matchlogs_all
IF Kane and Son stay fit Spurs can win the league. They need to win today and believe.
I'm guessing the previous seasons performance still being accounted pretty highly for this season
It must be this, cause they don't look like title contenders when I watch them. Then I check the stats and they aren't playing like it either (at least by xG Diff and xG Diff/90).
Oh yeah, that reason to be skeptical of Tottenham. One of the things Bill Connelly, this week's pod guest, likes to look at as a predictive factor is attacking-third turnover margin. In other words: how many possessions are you winning in the attacking third, vs how many are your opponents winning. Liverpool are plus-63 in first, then City are plus-32 in second in one fewer game. No one else is above 25. And Spurs, meanwhile, are minus-13, which is 15th in the league. We'll see if they can keep up their current performances if that doesn't change.
Tottenham won't have much turnover rate in final third as long as Alderweireld is at CB. They don't press and play deeper without Sanchez's recovery speed
Yep, it's more of a question of whether you can consistently generate enough chances to win the league without it.
Where is arsenal? Dare I ask
They're minus-18, which is 17th. (Sorry!)
There’s no thumbs down on this thread but assume I would’ve clicked it
there's a decent mangaer at Villarreal. something to keep an eye on.
Mourhino > Me
there needs to be a underlying data point for "yeah but they usually do well against them for some reason"
Spurs do have some really dangerous-looking counter-attacking patterns here and there -- partially because they have superstar players leading them -- but they don't have enough of them.
Welp!
HAHAHA
HT stat update:
-Shots (on target): City 11 (3), Spurs 1 (1)
-xG (per Stats Perform): City 0.86, Spurs 0.20
-Attacking-third passes: City 103, Spurs 13
-Penalty-area passes: City 10, Spurs 3
My one-word review: Woof.
I like to describe it as Economical.
Spurs haven't been top of the table since August 2014??????? Wow. At one point a couple years ago, they had the most points of any team over the previous 38 games.
The season we “blew it” and Leicester won we were never actually top of the table. Ironically Arsenal were for a while though.
Harry Kane playing like that one season Wilt Chamberlain decided to care deeply about his assist numbers
Much better second-half for Spurs, btw. Three shots! And City haven't really created anything great, unlike the first half, which required a Gabby Jesus body-shield to keep the clean sheet.
City got tired from all that possession I guess?
lmao
jameis winston has scored more at tottenham hotspur stadium than manchester city.
One thing Lee Dixon got right: “Tactically, Jose will be very happy with himself.”
At this point in the season...Brighton have a higher xG than Manchester City, West Ham and Aston Villa have a lower xGA than Liverpool, and Harry Kane has more assists than last year's top 3 combined. Early season variance is so fun.
City players blocking each other in the box, the new analytics inefficiency!
I just looked up the players most-similar to Fernandiho's 17-18 season on Smarterscout. The top five, in order:
1) Fernandinho 18-19
2)Pierre-Emile Hojberg, Southampton, 17-18
3) Fabinho, Liverpool, 18-19
4) Maxime Gonalons, Lyon, 16-17
5) Fernandinho 16-17
Most-similar player from last season? Leicester's Wilifried Ndidi.
Maxime Gonalons plays for Granada. He needs a new agent
It took a while for Pep to realize he couldn't replace him and just build this new system. But this new system just isn't really good.
I mean, it's not as good as what they had, which is the best team in EPL history. But also, it's not like they're getting outplayed here.
Yeah, not in this game for sure. I meant more overall throughout the season, xG hasn't been kind to City.
De Bruyne blocking a Son shot feels like it should make the ball explode or something.
The announcers on NBC are killing me right now. They're ascribing Mourinho's tactics to him being concerned about his players getting hurt and having to expend too much energy. Have they never watched a Mourinho game before??????
Just as I suspected Jose's saving the players for PFC Ludogorets Razgrad
Not enough understanding of the evidence that you often expend more energy from your side when you force them to sit back and defend in their own final third (even if their compact and organized), as compared to turning the ball over quickly and at least maintaining some possession
Maybe they're trying to put a positive spin on the game in front of a national audience?
Question: Do you guys think Spurs would have taken more than one shot by now if they didn't score right away?
I'm trying to think of the Bergwijn goal game and it seems similar.
I mean, this is every Spurs-City game of the past two years. Spurs somehow score with one or two chances, they shell into their box, get pummeled ... and somehow still win. It's been true with Poch and Mou!
this seems even worse than before. and an ultra low block (albeit forced) with the handball rule...
Curious if Tottenham have won any games this season when they let up the first goal
United, but that doesn't really count.
Definitely not
LOL
Is there a count on chances created so far? Still expect City to have the edge, but more indicative of the game script maybe
Eight shots to 1 in favor of City, and they've more than tripled Spurs' xG so far.
I'm just thinking the Bergwijn near-missed shot on goal and the Kane disallowed goal as quality chances that don't count in those stats. Both otherwise quality chances in the box
Sure, but City have had a bunch of those, too.
I'm so used to seeing this script from Jose at this point that I've at least become numb-er to the anxiety of it. He'd rather nick the second goal from a City mistake than concede from pushing further up and yielding the mistake himself. His philosophy tells him, incorrectly, that he's less responsible if the opposition simply "outplays" his side
And if there's a handball or a penalty he can blame VAR. And if one of his defenders makes a mistake (because he's being forced to defend in his own box for 85 minutes), then he can blame his defenders. Brilliant, really.
It's definitely possible since I don't think their gameplan changes so much if they don't score.
LOLOLOLOL
Maybe I'm missing something, but Rodri just sucks all the punch out of the City midfield. No dynamism or creativity.
I don't think you're missing anything. He got dusted on the goal, too. I forget who said this, but it's like Pep decided to replace Fernandinho with a younger version of himself.
I'm getting Michael Bradley flashbacks. And here I was, thinking he couldn't hurt me anymore.
As a Stevie Bergwijn True Believer, I’ve got a lot riding on today
MLS update: After a red card that led to 10 minutes of added on time(!) because the player that got red carded faked an injury trying to get out of it we go to extra time at 1-1.
Who was it?
Ruan. He was on the ground for a solid 9 minutes trying to delay the red
Hahah mourinho masterclass
aguero on the bench sucking his belly in just in case Roy's on punditry this evening
I wish there was a stat that totaled up miles travelled during the international break by team...
He didn't travel many miles, but this deserves some respect https://twitter.com/TiagoEstv/status/1329463677712535554
I was pretty happy to see Gabriel play two full u23 matches for Brazil...in Cairo
How'd he play?
Unclear. Pretty sure survival was the goal
Not by team but Vinicius returned to Madrid after 20,700 km of travelling and 0 minute of action
the england captain isn't allowed to be offside! who does the lineman think Kane is Morata
YES!!
I blinked and Spurs scored, smh
It's time for the Young Turk that is Jose Mourinho to rubberstamp his rise and supercede the tactically dated Pep Guardiola.
Next weekend: Chelsea vs. Tottenham . Championship Playoff?
Hey Ryan, off topic, but any chance we can get another one of those "Who's Good - Who's Shit in Top 5 Leagues" graphs?
I'll toss one out after this weekend's games.
I really hope Barcelona v Atletico redeem today's game slate.
Oh buddy ...
Haha, Atleti are fun this season! Must have hope
you don't fancy west brom?
What is the point of Rodri on this City team?
Really tough to make a case for him as adding value to the team. There's not much he's doing that's visually obvious, and if he's having some kind of hidden effect, then the team would ... be better. Statistically, he passes the ball into the attacking third a ton, but that seems like something a ton of other players could do, too.
City's recruitment last two years have been...interesting.
Gary Neviile's really exasperated with City's centrebacks.
Understandably. The first goal they both stepped to Kane when only one of them should. Pretty simple mistake. Second one they do a poor job of defending a break and not shifting their line. First time I’ve wondered if Laporte is actually good at defending or if he’s just really good on the ball
It is Harry 'Lebron James' Kane though
Smelling salts?
Kane just pulled a wrestling move on Cancelo. Going full Mourinho
As a Madrid fan, you never go full mourinho. You end up poking an assistant in the eye
Top five best/worst moment in Classico history
Pig head being #1?
Pig Head number 1, eye poke 2, Messi holding up his shirt to Madrid fans 764
Amazing to watch. Embarrassed it was my team
As a fellow Madrid fan, you had to turn full villain in those years to appreciate Mourinho era
Absolutely. I had to embrace it. No chance we were beating that barca team. Also, I love that every time Reguilon does something, Real Madrid gets a shout out
The good old days of Pepe as a CDM man-marking Messi.
Is Harry Kane more Steve Nash or Nikola Jokic?
He's Arvydas Sabonis
Nikola Jokic
Is Harry Kane secretly Messi now?
No, because an Argentinean player actually scored off of one of his passes.
Higuain defenders must assemble. The libel against him has gone on for too long lol
OH MY!!!!!
2 SHOTS ON GOAL!!
parsimony is a virtue
From a neutral perspective, what outcome here is more "fun" for the league? I hate Spurs to be rewarded for playing like this, but having them near the top would be nice? I guess??
Mourinho trying to be the front-runner would be kind of fun, I guess. Also, City can survive a loss here, so a Spurs win probably increases the number of title-challengers.
To clarify, by "fun" I just mean at least it would be new
the real winner here would be Jose's IG stories
I F3ed to be sure and none of you mentioned Chelsea as potential title winners. What have you got against Frank 'English Rose' Lampard?
Hard to get the United and Liverpool games out of my head. They played both matches, well, like Spurs are playing this game right now. Also: they're even worse than Spurs re: final-third turnovers.
I read that as it because he'd give his title winners speech in Latin.
This actually does seem like a perfect game for Bale to come on with 20 mins left to go for a smash + grab goal
Oh, it's happening.
And then get ready for the subsequent "Mourinho masterclass" narrative that inevitably emerges!
Oh, it's absolutely happening.
He's still floating from his telling the lads that DJ would finally breakthrough at Augusta. A goal would cap off the week nicely for him.
Arsenal fans: Duncan Alexander
@oilysailor:
Son now has as many PL goals as Arsenal this season
Wow, Orlando has fans. And you can STAND! What? Premier League being upstaged by MLS. Would never have happened on Scudamore's watch.
"Ron DeSantis for PL Chairman!" – no one ever
As a Floridian, this is very triggering lol
If someone says "Wow imagine how good City would be if they had Kane and Son up front!" I'm gonna get really annoyed.
Another good tackle by a city player on another city player
I don't know if it's tiredness or Spurs gameplan, but this is already dying down as a game similar to how City v Liverpool did. Except we're in the first half!
erm ok i concede, what was that stat about spurs not gaining posession in oppositions final 3rd? It can't go on like this!