No games today, but I assume (I hope?) a bunch of you are sitting at home. (If not, this exercise will be a complete bust!) So, there’s no reason we can’t all gather ‘round a webpage and shoot the shit. Are you all OK? What are you replacing your soccer-watching with today? And what do you wanna know from me? I’ll be in the thread right around 1030 PST, but feel free to chat amongst yourselves before then.
OK! I'm checking out for the day, but please feel free to keep chatting with each other. Any kind of community we can create seems pretty important during a time when we should actively be avoiding physical community. Lemme know what you're reading, watching, doing. Stay safe, everyone!
Listen up Footy Fiends, there's still some decent soccer happening this weekend. Istanbul Derby Besiktas vs Galatasaray is happening tomorrow at 12pm EST.
Are there any famous older games (pre-2010 lets say) that you think are good rewatches for whatever reason? Maybe an important tactical development getting unveiled on the big stage or a particularly interesting moment in a player or manager’s career?
This may or may not be a new feature I'm planning to roll out in the absence of actually games over the next couple weeks/months. My favorite pre-2010 game is probably the Netherlands v Czech Republic at Euro 2004.
Barcelona's 6-2 demolition of Real Madrid in May 2009 comes to mind. Not sure if it lives up to the legend (allegedly it was Messi's debut as a false 9), but it's a very fun watch.
Heya! I'm writing a daily newsletter/blog-type thing here to spread optimism in times of Corona. Today, it's about getting out of the house virtually. Please share and if you want to write a post, please get in touch. Could be resources, could be moments of warmth and kindness you experienced in your life, etc.
Presumably with more time to spend not preparing for games, do we see a more active transfer window or maybe more importantly, a more efficient/successful transfer window? Teams (or at least managers and coaching staff) will have more time to self-scout and scout others compared to other years which might lead to better results.
Could this also be a blessing in disguise in that players also get some much needed time off? I'm sure the powers-that-be will quickly ruin it by scheduling massive amounts of games to make up for the lost time, but the initial period after the return might see teams and players at full strength and make for great matches.
Me being a former defender, my favorite thing to watch is when center defender’s press into the midfield and create a pseudo-extra midfielder. (Bastoni for Inter is currently my favorite to watch so this) am I wrong in being surprised more teams don’t try and find more center def comfortable pushing the ball up on their own instead of using wing backs which tend to rely on crosses?
I think a bunch of teams are doing this -- most CBs at big teams are required to be proficient with the ball at their feet; both of England's CBs at the last WC did what you're describing -- but it doesn't really replace what you're talking about with FBs. The FBs are actually getting the ball into the box, but there's no world in which CBs can replace that, other than an extreme long-ball style. If anything, the passing/dribbling from CBs would replace the function of CMs, and perhaps allow them to push higher up the field. But then you're at a pretty extreme risk if you lose the ball, and I'm not sure the payoff is really even that high to begin with.
That’s what I thought too! Reminds me of the NBA and having even your biggest players being a threat from 3. Adds another dimension to their game another issue the opposition has to worry about
It's pretty hard to argue against Henderson at the base at this point. Same goes for Wijnaldum in one of the spots ahead of him. I still think Keita belongs in the other spot when he's healthy, but Ox was awesome against Atletico.
"Fabinho, Ox, Keita" feels like the long-term plan, but the frailty of the human body (and the continued excellence of Henderson and Gini) has kept pushing it into the future.
What's the ceiling for Wolves long term under Nuno? Feels like for all the goodwill they have, they're still mostly a counter attacking team which should change over time as teams adapt more to them and they start getting treated as outright favorites. They certainly have the money to buy players who could adap to this but can Nuno?
I wouldn't put a cap on it yet. I mean, they were in the Championship two years ago, and now they're third-favorites for the Europa League (per 538's model). They led the Championship in goals scored, so I don't think there's any reason that Nuno can't turn them into a more attacking team.
I think Man United is in the same stage where they've got the counter attacking thing down, but the next step is to develop (through tactics and player acquisition) the ability to break down teams who just sit back and defend.
True but do you think United have a deliberate plan that leads to the counter attacking strategy? For some reason it feels to me like they just happen to have fast players whonare able to take advantage when teams leave space behind and I wonder about they're ability to build on that.
I think the abilities of the players definitely plays into adopting that strategy. So it seems to me they probably need to add new pieces if they want to be able to break teams down better. Ryan and others have talked about their lack of ball-playing ability in the midfield and that's probably something they would look to address.
I think my old boss used this term to refer to tiny events that had tons of unintended consequences. I'd say that the current situation might just result in a ... massive, global upheaval that re-orients the functioning of society. Soccer will likely be different after this, but so will everything else, too.
I say: underrated! In some ways, he was kind of a precursor to the "free eights" that Pep has used at Manchester City -- attacking midfielders who played deeper in more traditional midfield slots. His attacking production is pretty special -- north of 0.5 non-penalty goals+assists per 90 in most seasons. For context: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, one of the best attackers in the world, is at 0.49 THIS YEAR. https://fbref.com/en/players/268df6b1/Frank-Lampard
Yeah, there's not gonna be anything better than that: Ted is the godfather of this stuff and he's more experienced than anyone in trying to translate it to Proper Football Men. Michael Lopez, director of analytics at the NFL, has some stuff in here. Way less in the weeds than what Ted has listed, but there are some useful, general, higher-level pieces in it https://statsbylopez.com/276readings/
How would you fix Barcelona over the few transfer windows to ensure that they continue to meet expectations when (if?) Messi stops being the best player in the world? Which young players would you target to make a smooth transition?
Replacing soccer watching with Twitter. Even worse for my nerves. This is a welcome break. If UEFA have to choose between finishing the Champions League or holding the Euro tournament, which one do you think they will do?
Oh god, oh no Rachel. Glad this is helpful. We'll do more of 'em. I don't think they'll be faced with that choice -- seems like the Euros are gonna get moved to 2021 and potentially joint-held with the women's tournament -- but I think UEFA would go the the Euros over the CL, but the clubs would obviously push the other way.
Of all the World Cups you remember watching, which is your favorite? 1998 for me. I was 10 and remember it vividly. It was a great tournament too for my native country, Romania, until they went bleach blonde...
I actually enjoyed 2018 the most. The level of play was pretty good, most of the favorites got upset, there was something calming about the US not being in it, and it provided the kind of uncertainty we just don't get from the club game anymore. I loved 2002, too. Was in middle school, and I woke up in the middle of the night to watch games pretty much every day.
In light of your recent column about how midfielders may be less important than most of us have thought, do you have an all time premier league midfield 3 (or 4)?
I'm gonna be biased toward more recent players, but well, we're better at soccer than we were 15 years ago. I think a midfield of Claude Makelele, Cesc Fabregas, and Yaya Toure would be pretty much perfect. Makelele allows you to cram more attack-oriented players onto the field, Fabregas is the best creative passer and Toure is the best just general midfield attacking force. These are the kinds of guys that break through the analytical limits of the position.
Bayern and City are the favorites in a theoretical-but-unlikely future where the Champions League is resumed within a month and all games on the schedule get played.
OK! I'm checking out for the day, but please feel free to keep chatting with each other. Any kind of community we can create seems pretty important during a time when we should actively be avoiding physical community. Lemme know what you're reading, watching, doing. Stay safe, everyone!
Anything else, guys? We'll do a bunch more of these in the future, but I'll hang around for a bit longer in case there are some more Qs.
they shoulda postponed the champions league sooner due to health concerns, right (asks Liverpool fan)?
Crazy to think that If the Liverpool game was one match day later it would have probably been postponed and Allison would have been back
Should've been postponed in the 94th minute of the game on Wednesday, imo.
cant rely on Alison, tho.
What’s everyone reading to kill some time? I’m on book three of the Farseer Trilogy by Robin Hobb.
Let's bump this. I'm reading Severance by Ling Ma (and a couple other books, too).
How are you liking it? I was literally looking at Severance on amazon today
Listen up Footy Fiends, there's still some decent soccer happening this weekend. Istanbul Derby Besiktas vs Galatasaray is happening tomorrow at 12pm EST.
Are there any famous older games (pre-2010 lets say) that you think are good rewatches for whatever reason? Maybe an important tactical development getting unveiled on the big stage or a particularly interesting moment in a player or manager’s career?
This may or may not be a new feature I'm planning to roll out in the absence of actually games over the next couple weeks/months. My favorite pre-2010 game is probably the Netherlands v Czech Republic at Euro 2004.
Re-renaissance of Dutch soccer after they missed the 2002 World Cup, and the beginning of the CR's golden generation.
Barcelona's 6-2 demolition of Real Madrid in May 2009 comes to mind. Not sure if it lives up to the legend (allegedly it was Messi's debut as a false 9), but it's a very fun watch.
More likely to resume and continue this year:
Prem or the Champions League?
Seems like Champions league is done due to how much travel it requires.
My guess would probably be Champions League since it's way fewer games.
Heya! I'm writing a daily newsletter/blog-type thing here to spread optimism in times of Corona. Today, it's about getting out of the house virtually. Please share and if you want to write a post, please get in touch. Could be resources, could be moments of warmth and kindness you experienced in your life, etc.
It's https://rainbowsunicorns.substack.com
Sorry I'm late, why isn't haland or minamono cup tied? Idk what that means but auba couldn't play for arsenal in Europa league last year
Presumably with more time to spend not preparing for games, do we see a more active transfer window or maybe more importantly, a more efficient/successful transfer window? Teams (or at least managers and coaching staff) will have more time to self-scout and scout others compared to other years which might lead to better results.
Could this also be a blessing in disguise in that players also get some much needed time off? I'm sure the powers-that-be will quickly ruin it by scheduling massive amounts of games to make up for the lost time, but the initial period after the return might see teams and players at full strength and make for great matches.
Me being a former defender, my favorite thing to watch is when center defender’s press into the midfield and create a pseudo-extra midfielder. (Bastoni for Inter is currently my favorite to watch so this) am I wrong in being surprised more teams don’t try and find more center def comfortable pushing the ball up on their own instead of using wing backs which tend to rely on crosses?
I think a bunch of teams are doing this -- most CBs at big teams are required to be proficient with the ball at their feet; both of England's CBs at the last WC did what you're describing -- but it doesn't really replace what you're talking about with FBs. The FBs are actually getting the ball into the box, but there's no world in which CBs can replace that, other than an extreme long-ball style. If anything, the passing/dribbling from CBs would replace the function of CMs, and perhaps allow them to push higher up the field. But then you're at a pretty extreme risk if you lose the ball, and I'm not sure the payoff is really even that high to begin with.
From my very limited perspective but listening to smarter people, that’s likely to be one of the next big “things” in soccer.
That’s what I thought too! Reminds me of the NBA and having even your biggest players being a threat from 3. Adds another dimension to their game another issue the opposition has to worry about
What is your favorite version of Liverpool’s current midfielders ( or what version is best)?
It's pretty hard to argue against Henderson at the base at this point. Same goes for Wijnaldum in one of the spots ahead of him. I still think Keita belongs in the other spot when he's healthy, but Ox was awesome against Atletico.
I feel like having both Ox and Keita on at the same time would be devastating in attack, but I'm not sure if it's solid enough defensively.
"Fabinho, Ox, Keita" feels like the long-term plan, but the frailty of the human body (and the continued excellence of Henderson and Gini) has kept pushing it into the future.
What's the ceiling for Wolves long term under Nuno? Feels like for all the goodwill they have, they're still mostly a counter attacking team which should change over time as teams adapt more to them and they start getting treated as outright favorites. They certainly have the money to buy players who could adap to this but can Nuno?
I wouldn't put a cap on it yet. I mean, they were in the Championship two years ago, and now they're third-favorites for the Europa League (per 538's model). They led the Championship in goals scored, so I don't think there's any reason that Nuno can't turn them into a more attacking team.
So should Nuno get hired by a "bigger" club you think he'd be fine?
I'm not sure he'd add a ton beyond a team's talent level, but I don't think he'd underperform.
I think Man United is in the same stage where they've got the counter attacking thing down, but the next step is to develop (through tactics and player acquisition) the ability to break down teams who just sit back and defend.
True but do you think United have a deliberate plan that leads to the counter attacking strategy? For some reason it feels to me like they just happen to have fast players whonare able to take advantage when teams leave space behind and I wonder about they're ability to build on that.
I think the abilities of the players definitely plays into adopting that strategy. So it seems to me they probably need to add new pieces if they want to be able to break teams down better. Ryan and others have talked about their lack of ball-playing ability in the midfield and that's probably something they would look to address.
Good on them for signing Bruno then, I guess.
Bill Simmon’s loves the term “Sliding Doors Moments”, could the current situation be the biggest sliding doors moment in soccerh history?
I think my old boss used this term to refer to tiny events that had tons of unintended consequences. I'd say that the current situation might just result in a ... massive, global upheaval that re-orients the functioning of society. Soccer will likely be different after this, but so will everything else, too.
Frank Lampard as a player: overrated, underrated, properly rated?
I say: underrated! In some ways, he was kind of a precursor to the "free eights" that Pep has used at Manchester City -- attacking midfielders who played deeper in more traditional midfield slots. His attacking production is pretty special -- north of 0.5 non-penalty goals+assists per 90 in most seasons. For context: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, one of the best attackers in the world, is at 0.49 THIS YEAR. https://fbref.com/en/players/268df6b1/Frank-Lampard
I would have assumed you'd go overrated or properly rated just cause Gerrard but his stats are definitely amazing. Thanks.
Are there any soccer-metrics boot camps or primer-style series to get caught up on? This thread < https://mobile.twitter.com/mixedknuts/status/1170812991882874881> has some good stuff, but it’d be nice to have a more cohesive approach.
Yeah, there's not gonna be anything better than that: Ted is the godfather of this stuff and he's more experienced than anyone in trying to translate it to Proper Football Men. Michael Lopez, director of analytics at the NFL, has some stuff in here. Way less in the weeds than what Ted has listed, but there are some useful, general, higher-level pieces in it https://statsbylopez.com/276readings/
How would you fix Barcelona over the few transfer windows to ensure that they continue to meet expectations when (if?) Messi stops being the best player in the world? Which young players would you target to make a smooth transition?
They're the richest team in the world. And so: they should just buy Erling Haaland.
Replacing soccer watching with Twitter. Even worse for my nerves. This is a welcome break. If UEFA have to choose between finishing the Champions League or holding the Euro tournament, which one do you think they will do?
Oh god, oh no Rachel. Glad this is helpful. We'll do more of 'em. I don't think they'll be faced with that choice -- seems like the Euros are gonna get moved to 2021 and potentially joint-held with the women's tournament -- but I think UEFA would go the the Euros over the CL, but the clubs would obviously push the other way.
Of all the World Cups you remember watching, which is your favorite? 1998 for me. I was 10 and remember it vividly. It was a great tournament too for my native country, Romania, until they went bleach blonde...
I actually enjoyed 2018 the most. The level of play was pretty good, most of the favorites got upset, there was something calming about the US not being in it, and it provided the kind of uncertainty we just don't get from the club game anymore. I loved 2002, too. Was in middle school, and I woke up in the middle of the night to watch games pretty much every day.
Do you have a favorite soccer documentary that I can stream this weekend?
Here ya go: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0309093/
Should be able to find it on Youtube, if not for purpose.
Can Atleti win the title?
Better question: Can they finish top four?
In light of your recent column about how midfielders may be less important than most of us have thought, do you have an all time premier league midfield 3 (or 4)?
I'm gonna be biased toward more recent players, but well, we're better at soccer than we were 15 years ago. I think a midfield of Claude Makelele, Cesc Fabregas, and Yaya Toure would be pretty much perfect. Makelele allows you to cram more attack-oriented players onto the field, Fabregas is the best creative passer and Toure is the best just general midfield attacking force. These are the kinds of guys that break through the analytical limits of the position.
Who's got a Liga MX primer?
Not a primer, but my buddy Jon Arnold does good English-language Liga MX coverage. https://twitter.com/ArnoldcommaJon
who is the champions league contender now that lpool is gone?
Bayern and City are the favorites in a theoretical-but-unlikely future where the Champions League is resumed within a month and all games on the schedule get played.
Do you think UEFA would prefer finishing domestic leagues over having a full Euro tournament that starts on time?
UEFA prefers the latter. National federations prefer the former.
Liverpool lost. How are you dealing with it?
By focusing my anxieties on the larger, more existential crises the world is currently facing!
if you could pick any two teams to watch in a (hypothetical) game right now, who would you pick?
Oh, good one. I think PSG v Bayern would be amazing right now. Same goes for Atalanta v Liverpool.
What are the chances the Prem season is just cancelled with no official winner? That would be the funniest possible result for non-Liverpool fans.
Karren Brady, is that you? https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/mar/14/west-ham-karren-brady-calls-for-premier-league-cancellation-coronavirus