Kickoff is 930 PST, Dortmund v suddenly unstoppable (now that Jurgen Klinsmann is gone) Hertha Berlin. I might have to head out before the game is over, but I’ll be here when the game starts.
Totally dominant, boring, un-Dortmund-esque performance from Dortmund. The chat made the match way more fun than it actually was. Thanks, as always, for participating, you guys. Hope you're all hanging in there. Enjoy your Saturdays.
"And a low goal probability, just 12 percent" says the announced. Twelve percent is pretty much the average goal probability of every shot in the Big Five leagues.
Here is my stats-based take on the match I'm still unable to watch. Tell me if I'm wrong: Dortmund are dominating possession and camping out in the final third, but they haven't been able to move the ball into the area. Everything builds up down the left side for them. Hertha, meanwhile, have been, like, half-dangerous on a couple of their possessions, but they just never have the ball.
It's worth adding that all of the "camping" is being done by fullbacks. If Sancho wasn't fat and Hazard was...the other Hazard this might actually work. But they aren't, so the fullbacks are basically sitting on the ball accomplishing nothing.
You are missing a remarkable amount of nothing. A team with ~4 CBs and no striker is attacking a team that is perfectly happy letting them do that, to predictable results.
What do the analytics say about Witsel? I understand that a lot of what he does may have value over the course of 90 minutes/a full season, but I never feel like he moves the needle when I watch him
He's in one of the tougher-to-quantify positions, but basically what you get from him is average-to-slightly-above-average production across the board, little valuable passing, and someone who never loses the ball.
In terms of his passing? He makes very few passes -- especially compared to other players at his position -- into areas of the field that significantly increase his team's chances of scoring a goal.
Definitely matches the eye test. His lack of valuable passing definitely seems to go hand-in-hand with never losing the ball. Thankfully Delaney is more than capable of advancing the ball forward
Per his profile on the Bundesliga site he’s completing 88% of his passes- which is not what I would have guessed. Guess it’s easier to complete a higher percentage with a small sample size...
Yeah, he's in the Michael Owen, Wayne Rooney group, but given those other factors -- and the fact that he's legit been world-class since the moment he stepped on the field in Germany -- he might be the most coveted English prospect ... ever.
Is Sancho's finishing finally coming back down to Earth? Per Stats Perform, that's 1.26 xG from him alone today.
Totally dominant, boring, un-Dortmund-esque performance from Dortmund. The chat made the match way more fun than it actually was. Thanks, as always, for participating, you guys. Hope you're all hanging in there. Enjoy your Saturdays.
This guy Morey has had some nice moments. Wonder what he thinks about Hong Kong
I would prefer the sound of rain to the sound of the fake crowd.
There is basically no fake crowd noise RN, which I think accurately captures the feel of this game.
"And a low goal probability, just 12 percent" says the announced. Twelve percent is pretty much the average goal probability of every shot in the Big Five leagues.
*announcer
The announcer just described a pass that went out of bounds from Grujic as "bisected the space between two players there".
He needs to bisect the Dortmund goalie and one of the posts
The two players being both goalkeepers?
Here is my stats-based take on the match I'm still unable to watch. Tell me if I'm wrong: Dortmund are dominating possession and camping out in the final third, but they haven't been able to move the ball into the area. Everything builds up down the left side for them. Hertha, meanwhile, have been, like, half-dangerous on a couple of their possessions, but they just never have the ball.
More or less
It's worth adding that all of the "camping" is being done by fullbacks. If Sancho wasn't fat and Hazard was...the other Hazard this might actually work. But they aren't, so the fullbacks are basically sitting on the ball accomplishing nothing.
I feel like there's been a lot of Hakimi on the ball thus far, but mostly into the final third.
Looking at Dortmund's bench, it seems like we should get an extended Gio Reyna appearance today.
I'm mad that my stream isn't frozen anymore.
Emrerging as a player that Can do it all
Impressive defensive showing.
Hakimi at CF
Solid 0.18 xG from Hertha Berlin thus far.
My FS2 stream is frozen. Anything could be happening right now.
Still frozen. Great stuff. Sorry guys.
You are missing a remarkable amount of nothing. A team with ~4 CBs and no striker is attacking a team that is perfectly happy letting them do that, to predictable results.
Hertha are maintaining a long stretch of possession just in front of the halfway line while Dortmund drop back and defend in numbers.
OK perhaps not ANYTHING.
Axel Witsel never passes the ball forward. I love it.
What do the analytics say about Witsel? I understand that a lot of what he does may have value over the course of 90 minutes/a full season, but I never feel like he moves the needle when I watch him
He's in one of the tougher-to-quantify positions, but basically what you get from him is average-to-slightly-above-average production across the board, little valuable passing, and someone who never loses the ball.
How are you quantifying value here?
I enjoy his composure.
In terms of his passing? He makes very few passes -- especially compared to other players at his position -- into areas of the field that significantly increase his team's chances of scoring a goal.
I'm assuming that's not what his coach wants him to do.
He had a similar profile in China, too.
Definitely matches the eye test. His lack of valuable passing definitely seems to go hand-in-hand with never losing the ball. Thankfully Delaney is more than capable of advancing the ball forward
My FIFA-warped brain can never unsee him in a Zenit shirt
Who needs EBH when you have Can?
They use the same hair product I think
Brandt as a false 9 type striker makes more sense than Hazard up front like last week
The people want Reyna
It's time!
Brandt noooooooo
Brandt goes and does something like that (header pass), and TOTALLY REDEEMS HIMSELF
Sancho noooooooooo
Basically the first shot he's missed in two years.
https://twitter.com/jair1970/status/1264186246626230272
There is going to be a crater after these quarantine matches, if he even manages to get the shots...
You're forgetting the hat trick from last weekend...
Imma be honest I completely forgot there were even matches last weekend after Bayern Dortmund.
Leave it to Paderborn to let a 19 year old with basically no fitness score a hat trick lol.
Not wrong. But that's some unfulfilled xG, is all.
So I think the reverse Ryan curse struck today, no chat for the Bayern game, so Goretzka gets a goal and an assist.
I saw a tweet that called him "the driving force" behind Muller and Lewandowski. He completed like 14 passes. Smh.
Per his profile on the Bundesliga site he’s completing 88% of his passes- which is not what I would have guessed. Guess it’s easier to complete a higher percentage with a small sample size...
Very important to see how the defense holds up without Hummels today
Can at CB is... interesting
Always looked great there for Liverpool.
Plus, everyone loves a good thunder run out of the back
Not in a back 3 though. Has he been doing it at all before this for Dortmund?
Not really, but he hasn't really had the chance to yet anyway. He only arrived in January and hasn't been completely healthy since then.
Where’s Sam? Need that bet so we know how the game will go
It's Dortmund -1. I always imagine and believe Sam is out there, picking spreads beyone hope, whether he updates us or not #teamsam
Is Sancho one of the more coveted EPL prospects in awhile being English w Brexit and domestic player roster requirements?
I feel like he would be one of the more covered prospects regardless, but i guess that's an added bonus
Yeah, he's in the Michael Owen, Wayne Rooney group, but given those other factors -- and the fact that he's legit been world-class since the moment he stepped on the field in Germany -- he might be the most coveted English prospect ... ever.
Has there ever been such a big English prospect not already playing in England at some level? nobody I can think of since I’ve been a soccer fan (‘05)
Holy Sancho footwork
Favre-ing in progress
Guerrero in such great form the last few months
Anyone catch the end of Leipzig-Paderborn? That was good old-fashioned man-down fun
Eeek Guerriero that free kick. Is Dortmund good at set pieces?
There was the Can thunder run, he collided with the CB at the 20 yard mark lol
This will be my first extensive Grujic viewing in like 3 years
Also, watching Emre Can "run" makes MY legs hurt
He runs like someone who's having a dream about himself not being able to run. (Feel free to read way too much into that.)
Wonderful analogy
Hertha has been playing well in the last couple of games. Expecting big things today against Dortmund
Lifetime fan?
Went to Berlin back in 2013, had a pork knuckle sandwich, fell in love
Who should we be looking at specifically? I know very little about Hertha, curious who you like the most
Ibesevic ip top is pretty solid so is griujic in the midfield . Ha this team has piatek and an old Salomon kalou riding the bench