Podcast is up. No Tuesday newsletter this week; instead, we’re doing a couple Champions League chats today and tomorrow. I’ll be in and out throughout the morning — Atalanta v Shakhtar baby — and will be in here for the duration of the afternoon games. As always, chat amongst yourselves and ask me whatever you’d like. But this time, I also have a discussion prompt for all of you: If soccer had a WAR statistic (something that could put a value on nearly everything a player does), whose reputation would benefit and whose would suffer?
Aaaaaand Atalanta give up a 95th-minute goal to lose at home to Shakhtar. That's zero points through two games. Not looking good. Treat your favorite soccer hipster to a Modelo or something tonight.
-Good WAR: Roberto Firmino (3), Erik Lamela (2), Paul Pogba (2), Giorgino Wijnaldum, Moussa Dembele, Thomas Partey, Daley Blind, Lionel Messi, Aaron Ramsey, Delle Alli, Naby Keita, Andrea Pirlo, Felipe Anderson, Josh King, Karim Benzema
-Bad WAR: Cristiano Ronaldo (2), Harry Kane (2), Andy Carroll, David Luiz, Thibault Courtois, Kepa
Love all the thoughts so far. Another kind of player I had in mind: the ones who don't really seem to do all that much but whose teams tend to play better when they're on the field. Giorginio Wijnaldum is the first one who comes to mind, but any other players who fit this mold?
Thomas Partey....was watching the Madrid derby this weekend and couldn't help but have this same exact thought. It is so hard to put a value on all of his contributions, but the way he bosses the midfield cannot go unnoticed.
Love Gini - he's been in great form for club and country. Maybe I'm still thinking of the Barca comeback but I wonder if he's better as an impact sub than a starter for LFC once Keita is fully fit.
Great thought about Gini as a super-sub. As a Liverpool fan, I love seeing his name as a starter on the team sheet, but his substitution into the second leg of the CL semis last year supports this idea too.
Welpppppp. Tolisso picks Winks's pocket then perfectly times a no-look pass to create just enough space for Gnabry's shot. 4-1. That's a perfect encapsulation of modern midfield play in a three-second snapshot.
Juventus ... have reverted to the mostly-old and mostly-boring lineup again. Cuadrado is playing RB, but the midfield is Pjanic-Khedira-Matuidi, while Higuain and Ronaldo are up top with Bernardeschi. I'm eyeing Leverkusen as the underdog with the best chance of winning in the afternoon games.
HALFTIME ALERT: Real Madrid are losing 2-0 at home to Club Brugge. Also, Atalanta are tied with Shakhtar, 1-1, despite creating four Big Chances to Shakhtar's one. I was watching the latter but will not be watching the former.
I think I bought it back in 2011, never read it, but I was expecting a full book on the soccer war. The short piece on it (~25 pages?) was excellent and pretty messed up. Such an interesting writer.
so maybe Kane isn't the best example but in this theoretical stat it would most negatively impact strikers who score lots of poached goals and PKs but don't contribute much else. This type of player is also disappearing around top football. RIP Andy Carroll.
Firmino was my very first thought. He's finally starting to get his due. I wonder if Firmino would be the poster child for WAR going up and then maybe Kane's is much much lower.
I can’t see Kane dropping much, especially on a per game basis. Completely different style than Firmino, but he just gets goals from nothing on a worse team.
Great Q. I'd be concerned about the u-26 midfield, but keeper and defense might both be better right now, and I'm not convinced that Jovic, Vinicius, and Rodrygo wouldn't be as productive as the older front three.
Pogba's WAR, especially playing on Man U would really help his rep. Not sure if we are only considering outfield players, but Courtois and Kepa would be exposed as below average keepers.
Wonder how well Dele Alli would do, his injuries seem to have a bigger impact of spurs form than Kane, key for ball progression, shot creation and defensive work too
StatsBomb also has some kind of deal with fbref that will allow them to use their xg stats. They have already integrated xg on the team side, but hopefully they will for players soon too.
The other category I'm thinking would really benefit is the "Andrea Pirlo in his prime" type, which seems one of the hardest to quantify using traditional basic stats.
Besides the folks who have been mentioned, and those with already high reputations (KDB, Kane, Sterling, Salah, etc.), I'd say Felipe Anderson and Josh King would benefit from WAR. David Luiz would really suffer.
It might not be perfect, but xGChain in relation to the rest of the players on the pitch for attacking players might not be a horrible facsimile to WAR. Im also sure that analysts hired by clubs (Liverpool, for example) probably have developed strong versions of it.
The only problem is working in defensive contribution (like an xGChain against) and the effect of a player's movement (by drawing players away, good runs, the value of dribbles that do not lead to chances etc).
I suspect Messi's reputation would benefit a lot, if nothing else because his WAR would dwarf his teammates' in a huge club. Firmino is a good shout, and odd call on Ramsey as well!
Ronaldo is the Derek Jeter of this discussion - legitimately great, but advanced stats showing holes in his game not always obvious to the casual observer.
As a British man I'll admit I dont know it well enough (other than Ryan's article on Puskas two weeks ago) but that sounds like an absolute spot on comparison
a lot of strikers who only real contribution is the occasional goal would have their reps plummet, maybe that would get team to institute more "false 9's". the Firmino and Benzema type strikers would be seen as the optimal center forward
I would actually argue that Ozil's WAR would be much better than people expect. His offensive numbers would be so good (assuming he ever plays again) that it would balance out his defensive fallacies. People who don't understand how these types of advanced metrics work would actually probably use this theoretical WAR number to show the metric is broken.
i'm not sure how Ozil is seen right now, i think his pretend effort to defend (much like myself in pick up games) hurts the team more than it appears. His teammates believe he has a spot covered when he doesn't. There was an interesting piece about Andrew Wiggins not too long ago about how his shot contests were mostly useless and just displays of defense instead of actual. I also think he slows down counters when he shouldn't.
I guess my thought process might be applied more to the Ozil of 2 years ago than the current version. But I'm saying while Ozil's defense is terrible; his chance creation and passing and similar quality attributes have always been done at such an elite level that it would give him a respectable WAR, even though the current perception of him is that he is a trash player (thanks in large part to his body language and defensive ability).
Like I said, I think this applies more to past Ozil, which is partly true because we never really see him suit up that much anymore and his passing, movement, chance creation isn't at the level it previously was.
All right, that's it for today. As always, thanks for all the thoughtful comments. Hug your nearest Tottenham fan.
Dinamo Zagreb have completed 71 passes against City. It's the 63rd minute. WILL THEY BREAK ONE HUNDRED??????
Aaaaaand Atalanta give up a 95th-minute goal to lose at home to Shakhtar. That's zero points through two games. Not looking good. Treat your favorite soccer hipster to a Modelo or something tonight.
James Horncastle is crying somewhere right now
Thanks 🙏 bud!
Tallying up the "votes":
-Good WAR: Roberto Firmino (3), Erik Lamela (2), Paul Pogba (2), Giorgino Wijnaldum, Moussa Dembele, Thomas Partey, Daley Blind, Lionel Messi, Aaron Ramsey, Delle Alli, Naby Keita, Andrea Pirlo, Felipe Anderson, Josh King, Karim Benzema
-Bad WAR: Cristiano Ronaldo (2), Harry Kane (2), Andy Carroll, David Luiz, Thibault Courtois, Kepa
-Bad and Good WAR: Mesut Ozil
Love all the thoughts so far. Another kind of player I had in mind: the ones who don't really seem to do all that much but whose teams tend to play better when they're on the field. Giorginio Wijnaldum is the first one who comes to mind, but any other players who fit this mold?
I think CMs are the most likely to fall into this camp. Maybe someone like Moussa Dembélé (after seeing what Spurs became after his departure)?
Though that might be a more straightfoward case of Sissoko and Harry Winks not being nearly as good.
Thomas Partey....was watching the Madrid derby this weekend and couldn't help but have this same exact thought. It is so hard to put a value on all of his contributions, but the way he bosses the midfield cannot go unnoticed.
Love Gini - he's been in great form for club and country. Maybe I'm still thinking of the Barca comeback but I wonder if he's better as an impact sub than a starter for LFC once Keita is fully fit.
Great thought about Gini as a super-sub. As a Liverpool fan, I love seeing his name as a starter on the team sheet, but his substitution into the second leg of the CL semis last year supports this idea too.
Daley Blind
Erik Lamela
He was the other guy I had in mind! Both players who can do a bunch of little things in all phases of the game.
Spurs are getting annihilated, but Bayern are also finishing every chance they get. Guess that's how you get to 7-2!
Welpppppp. Tolisso picks Winks's pocket then perfectly times a no-look pass to create just enough space for Gnabry's shot. 4-1. That's a perfect encapsulation of modern midfield play in a three-second snapshot.
That pass from Thiago for the Gnabry hat-trick was amazing
He is so, so good https://twitter.com/MeetOnome/status/1179135103949246476
Running out to grab lunch before the second halves begin. Any thoughts on the first 45 minutes in any of the games?
Aurier would have conceded a pen earlier in the play (via VAR) had Lewandowski not scored
lol Robert Lewandowski scored 22 goals on 33xG in the Bundesliga last year.
Fifteen minutes in, and Bayern and Tottenham's defenses both look awful!
And boy is it making for a great watch
Juventus ... have reverted to the mostly-old and mostly-boring lineup again. Cuadrado is playing RB, but the midfield is Pjanic-Khedira-Matuidi, while Higuain and Ronaldo are up top with Bernardeschi. I'm eyeing Leverkusen as the underdog with the best chance of winning in the afternoon games.
For reference: Brugge is ranked directly between Southampton and Crystal Palace in the 538 club rankings.
Sure, that's all nice and good. But it begs the question.....can brugge do it on a rainy day in stoke though?
HALFTIME ALERT: Real Madrid are losing 2-0 at home to Club Brugge. Also, Atalanta are tied with Shakhtar, 1-1, despite creating four Big Chances to Shakhtar's one. I was watching the latter but will not be watching the former.
*now
Speaking of, uh, soccer war, this is a great book: https://www.amazon.com/Soccer-War-Ryszard-Kapuscinski/dp/0679738053
Just finished this the other day!
I think I bought it back in 2011, never read it, but I was expecting a full book on the soccer war. The short piece on it (~25 pages?) was excellent and pretty messed up. Such an interesting writer.
madrid really gave us their best keeper lmfao
What's a more likely scenario: madrid wins 3-2 or madrid wins 7-2?
Firmino's goes up. I know he's pretty highly regarded, but there is a strain of EPL supporter who doesn't think he's more valuable to LFC than Mane.
so maybe Kane isn't the best example but in this theoretical stat it would most negatively impact strikers who score lots of poached goals and PKs but don't contribute much else. This type of player is also disappearing around top football. RIP Andy Carroll.
Firmino was my very first thought. He's finally starting to get his due. I wonder if Firmino would be the poster child for WAR going up and then maybe Kane's is much much lower.
I can’t see Kane dropping much, especially on a per game basis. Completely different style than Firmino, but he just gets goals from nothing on a worse team.
verratti talks to the refs more than any player i've ever seen
Who should be the starting 3 on the midfield for Juventus?
I like the four they played over the weekend: Pjanic, Khedira, Rabiot, and Ramsey.
And then start CR7 and Dybala up front
WAR
If Madrid lose this (surely they'll get another and draw at least), how tenuous is Zidane's position?
Which Real Madrid team (if healthy) would place higher in La Liga this season? What about next year?
U26: Areola, Mendy, Varane, Eder Militao, Odriozola, Valverde, Diaz, Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo, Jovic
-or-
O26: Courtois, Marcelo, Nacho, Ramos, Carvajal, Kroos, Casemiro, Modric, Hazard, Bale, Benzema
Because many of the Madrid staples are looking washedddddddd.
Great Q. I'd be concerned about the u-26 midfield, but keeper and defense might both be better right now, and I'm not convinced that Jovic, Vinicius, and Rodrygo wouldn't be as productive as the older front three.
unrelated note - playing with Erling Haaland in FIFA 20 is a joy. Is he able to play tomorrow? would love to watch him in real life
Pogba's WAR, especially playing on Man U would really help his rep. Not sure if we are only considering outfield players, but Courtois and Kepa would be exposed as below average keepers.
Wonder how well Dele Alli would do, his injuries seem to have a bigger impact of spurs form than Kane, key for ball progression, shot creation and defensive work too
Kane for sure gets a big hit, think his lack of play making hurts his WAR.
If you look at xGChain/90 you will find Naby Keita as the highest rated non Man City player and the 8th highest non City player in xGBuildup/90
Brilliant. Where can you find these stats?
https://understat.com/
StatsBomb also has some kind of deal with fbref that will allow them to use their xg stats. They have already integrated xg on the team side, but hopefully they will for players soon too.
*last season
The other category I'm thinking would really benefit is the "Andrea Pirlo in his prime" type, which seems one of the hardest to quantify using traditional basic stats.
Besides the folks who have been mentioned, and those with already high reputations (KDB, Kane, Sterling, Salah, etc.), I'd say Felipe Anderson and Josh King would benefit from WAR. David Luiz would really suffer.
It might not be perfect, but xGChain in relation to the rest of the players on the pitch for attacking players might not be a horrible facsimile to WAR. Im also sure that analysts hired by clubs (Liverpool, for example) probably have developed strong versions of it.
The only problem is working in defensive contribution (like an xGChain against) and the effect of a player's movement (by drawing players away, good runs, the value of dribbles that do not lead to chances etc).
I suspect Messi's reputation would benefit a lot, if nothing else because his WAR would dwarf his teammates' in a huge club. Firmino is a good shout, and odd call on Ramsey as well!
In terms of suffering, Ronaldo is a likely one, not because hes a poor player (he isnt) but because of how highly rated he is.
Ronaldo is the Derek Jeter of this discussion - legitimately great, but advanced stats showing holes in his game not always obvious to the casual observer.
As a British man I'll admit I dont know it well enough (other than Ryan's article on Puskas two weeks ago) but that sounds like an absolute spot on comparison
I think Pogba's rep would go up
a lot of strikers who only real contribution is the occasional goal would have their reps plummet, maybe that would get team to institute more "false 9's". the Firmino and Benzema type strikers would be seen as the optimal center forward
ozil's WAR can't be good
I would actually argue that Ozil's WAR would be much better than people expect. His offensive numbers would be so good (assuming he ever plays again) that it would balance out his defensive fallacies. People who don't understand how these types of advanced metrics work would actually probably use this theoretical WAR number to show the metric is broken.
i'm not sure how Ozil is seen right now, i think his pretend effort to defend (much like myself in pick up games) hurts the team more than it appears. His teammates believe he has a spot covered when he doesn't. There was an interesting piece about Andrew Wiggins not too long ago about how his shot contests were mostly useless and just displays of defense instead of actual. I also think he slows down counters when he shouldn't.
I guess my thought process might be applied more to the Ozil of 2 years ago than the current version. But I'm saying while Ozil's defense is terrible; his chance creation and passing and similar quality attributes have always been done at such an elite level that it would give him a respectable WAR, even though the current perception of him is that he is a trash player (thanks in large part to his body language and defensive ability).
Like I said, I think this applies more to past Ozil, which is partly true because we never really see him suit up that much anymore and his passing, movement, chance creation isn't at the level it previously was.
Yeah but we have no interest in discussing the issue with people who can't see how statistics work 😏