Podcast is up. No Tuesday newsletter this week; instead, we’re doing a couple Champions League chats today and tomorrow. I’ll be in and out throughout the morning — Atalanta v Shakhtar baby — and will be in here for the duration of the afternoon games. As always, chat amongst yourselves and ask me whatever you’d like. But this time, I also have a discussion prompt for all of you: If soccer had a WAR statistic (something that could put a value on nearly everything a player does), whose reputation would benefit and whose would suffer?
Aaaaaand Atalanta give up a 95th-minute goal to lose at home to Shakhtar. That's zero points through two games. Not looking good. Treat your favorite soccer hipster to a Modelo or something tonight.
-Good WAR: Roberto Firmino (3), Erik Lamela (2), Paul Pogba (2), Giorgino Wijnaldum, Moussa Dembele, Thomas Partey, Daley Blind, Lionel Messi, Aaron Ramsey, Delle Alli, Naby Keita, Andrea Pirlo, Felipe Anderson, Josh King, Karim Benzema
-Bad WAR: Cristiano Ronaldo (2), Harry Kane (2), Andy Carroll, David Luiz, Thibault Courtois, Kepa
Love all the thoughts so far. Another kind of player I had in mind: the ones who don't really seem to do all that much but whose teams tend to play better when they're on the field. Giorginio Wijnaldum is the first one who comes to mind, but any other players who fit this mold?
Welpppppp. Tolisso picks Winks's pocket then perfectly times a no-look pass to create just enough space for Gnabry's shot. 4-1. That's a perfect encapsulation of modern midfield play in a three-second snapshot.
Juventus ... have reverted to the mostly-old and mostly-boring lineup again. Cuadrado is playing RB, but the midfield is Pjanic-Khedira-Matuidi, while Higuain and Ronaldo are up top with Bernardeschi. I'm eyeing Leverkusen as the underdog with the best chance of winning in the afternoon games.
HALFTIME ALERT: Real Madrid are losing 2-0 at home to Club Brugge. Also, Atalanta are tied with Shakhtar, 1-1, despite creating four Big Chances to Shakhtar's one. I was watching the latter but will not be watching the former.
Pogba's WAR, especially playing on Man U would really help his rep. Not sure if we are only considering outfield players, but Courtois and Kepa would be exposed as below average keepers.
Wonder how well Dele Alli would do, his injuries seem to have a bigger impact of spurs form than Kane, key for ball progression, shot creation and defensive work too
The other category I'm thinking would really benefit is the "Andrea Pirlo in his prime" type, which seems one of the hardest to quantify using traditional basic stats.
Besides the folks who have been mentioned, and those with already high reputations (KDB, Kane, Sterling, Salah, etc.), I'd say Felipe Anderson and Josh King would benefit from WAR. David Luiz would really suffer.
It might not be perfect, but xGChain in relation to the rest of the players on the pitch for attacking players might not be a horrible facsimile to WAR. Im also sure that analysts hired by clubs (Liverpool, for example) probably have developed strong versions of it.
The only problem is working in defensive contribution (like an xGChain against) and the effect of a player's movement (by drawing players away, good runs, the value of dribbles that do not lead to chances etc).
I suspect Messi's reputation would benefit a lot, if nothing else because his WAR would dwarf his teammates' in a huge club. Firmino is a good shout, and odd call on Ramsey as well!
a lot of strikers who only real contribution is the occasional goal would have their reps plummet, maybe that would get team to institute more "false 9's". the Firmino and Benzema type strikers would be seen as the optimal center forward
All right, that's it for today. As always, thanks for all the thoughtful comments. Hug your nearest Tottenham fan.
Dinamo Zagreb have completed 71 passes against City. It's the 63rd minute. WILL THEY BREAK ONE HUNDRED??????
Aaaaaand Atalanta give up a 95th-minute goal to lose at home to Shakhtar. That's zero points through two games. Not looking good. Treat your favorite soccer hipster to a Modelo or something tonight.
Tallying up the "votes":
-Good WAR: Roberto Firmino (3), Erik Lamela (2), Paul Pogba (2), Giorgino Wijnaldum, Moussa Dembele, Thomas Partey, Daley Blind, Lionel Messi, Aaron Ramsey, Delle Alli, Naby Keita, Andrea Pirlo, Felipe Anderson, Josh King, Karim Benzema
-Bad WAR: Cristiano Ronaldo (2), Harry Kane (2), Andy Carroll, David Luiz, Thibault Courtois, Kepa
-Bad and Good WAR: Mesut Ozil
Love all the thoughts so far. Another kind of player I had in mind: the ones who don't really seem to do all that much but whose teams tend to play better when they're on the field. Giorginio Wijnaldum is the first one who comes to mind, but any other players who fit this mold?
Spurs are getting annihilated, but Bayern are also finishing every chance they get. Guess that's how you get to 7-2!
Welpppppp. Tolisso picks Winks's pocket then perfectly times a no-look pass to create just enough space for Gnabry's shot. 4-1. That's a perfect encapsulation of modern midfield play in a three-second snapshot.
Running out to grab lunch before the second halves begin. Any thoughts on the first 45 minutes in any of the games?
lol Robert Lewandowski scored 22 goals on 33xG in the Bundesliga last year.
Fifteen minutes in, and Bayern and Tottenham's defenses both look awful!
Juventus ... have reverted to the mostly-old and mostly-boring lineup again. Cuadrado is playing RB, but the midfield is Pjanic-Khedira-Matuidi, while Higuain and Ronaldo are up top with Bernardeschi. I'm eyeing Leverkusen as the underdog with the best chance of winning in the afternoon games.
For reference: Brugge is ranked directly between Southampton and Crystal Palace in the 538 club rankings.
HALFTIME ALERT: Real Madrid are losing 2-0 at home to Club Brugge. Also, Atalanta are tied with Shakhtar, 1-1, despite creating four Big Chances to Shakhtar's one. I was watching the latter but will not be watching the former.
Speaking of, uh, soccer war, this is a great book: https://www.amazon.com/Soccer-War-Ryszard-Kapuscinski/dp/0679738053
madrid really gave us their best keeper lmfao
What's a more likely scenario: madrid wins 3-2 or madrid wins 7-2?
Firmino's goes up. I know he's pretty highly regarded, but there is a strain of EPL supporter who doesn't think he's more valuable to LFC than Mane.
verratti talks to the refs more than any player i've ever seen
Who should be the starting 3 on the midfield for Juventus?
WAR
If Madrid lose this (surely they'll get another and draw at least), how tenuous is Zidane's position?
Which Real Madrid team (if healthy) would place higher in La Liga this season? What about next year?
U26: Areola, Mendy, Varane, Eder Militao, Odriozola, Valverde, Diaz, Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo, Jovic
-or-
O26: Courtois, Marcelo, Nacho, Ramos, Carvajal, Kroos, Casemiro, Modric, Hazard, Bale, Benzema
Because many of the Madrid staples are looking washedddddddd.
unrelated note - playing with Erling Haaland in FIFA 20 is a joy. Is he able to play tomorrow? would love to watch him in real life
Pogba's WAR, especially playing on Man U would really help his rep. Not sure if we are only considering outfield players, but Courtois and Kepa would be exposed as below average keepers.
Wonder how well Dele Alli would do, his injuries seem to have a bigger impact of spurs form than Kane, key for ball progression, shot creation and defensive work too
If you look at xGChain/90 you will find Naby Keita as the highest rated non Man City player and the 8th highest non City player in xGBuildup/90
The other category I'm thinking would really benefit is the "Andrea Pirlo in his prime" type, which seems one of the hardest to quantify using traditional basic stats.
Besides the folks who have been mentioned, and those with already high reputations (KDB, Kane, Sterling, Salah, etc.), I'd say Felipe Anderson and Josh King would benefit from WAR. David Luiz would really suffer.
It might not be perfect, but xGChain in relation to the rest of the players on the pitch for attacking players might not be a horrible facsimile to WAR. Im also sure that analysts hired by clubs (Liverpool, for example) probably have developed strong versions of it.
The only problem is working in defensive contribution (like an xGChain against) and the effect of a player's movement (by drawing players away, good runs, the value of dribbles that do not lead to chances etc).
I suspect Messi's reputation would benefit a lot, if nothing else because his WAR would dwarf his teammates' in a huge club. Firmino is a good shout, and odd call on Ramsey as well!
I think Pogba's rep would go up
a lot of strikers who only real contribution is the occasional goal would have their reps plummet, maybe that would get team to institute more "false 9's". the Firmino and Benzema type strikers would be seen as the optimal center forward
ozil's WAR can't be good