No “traditional” newsletter today. Liverpool won the Champions League; I wrote about it. So, let’s do another chat instead. I’ll be in there from 10 AM PST to around noon, answering questions. But also: feel free to talk with each other, too! See ya soon.
Chris Richards is probably the best guy on this squad. Pomykal and Weah can also be difference makers a the senior level. Several other guys have shown serious promise in the tournament like Llanez and Mendez.
There's still so much projection involved with any of these guys who aren't already contributing at the pro level. I love watching Mendez, but like, he's playing against under-20s. He seems like he's got a special skillset, but so much else has to happen for those skills to translate into effectiveness in the Bundesliga or wherever. I guess my one takeaway from this tournament is that ... it's kind of concerning that Weah hasn't looked better, given that he's dropped down a level to play in these games.
Not that you are Ryan or asking for an opinion on it (and not that Ryan would ever admit it) but that pod has dropped from CL contender to lucky to make it to europa qualifying levels.
Because Ryan is no longer on it? Or because Donnie refuses to eat the cleat? For what it's worth Ryan, you're sorely missed on Ringer FC. I get my Liverpool fix from The Anfield Wrap, but Across the Pond, Double Pivot, and Football Ramble are okay-ish substitutes.
Ryan was by far the most knowledgable and insightful of the bunch. Stopped listening to it midway through the season. Guardian football weekly is the best IMO.
OK -- that's it for today! Thanks for all the thoughtful Qs. We'll do a bunch more of these, since it seems like there's interest. And if you all feel like continuing to chat in here, go for it. I trust you to not devolve this thing into a YouTube comments section!
He's young and he's already great -- the exact signing that Madrid needs to be making. (Sounds obvious, but only a handful of teams can afford players like that!) As for books: Inverting the Pyramid, The Italian Job, Soccernomics, Soccer in Sun and Shadow, Soccer Against the Enemy ...
Curious on your take for Liverpool's strategy of incoming transfers v. promoting talent from within, and how other teams are managing this as well. As we've seen with Sancho, teams risk losing players if they don't have a route to the first team, but with Liverpool's current primary players all in an age range of 25-28 it seems like bringing in more established players makes sense. It could be a simple question of "promote Brewster and Wilson or sign Werner/Depay/whoever else the rumor of the day lists" but it seems a bigger question than that.
I've said this in a couple other answers already, but the thing about becoming the best team in Europe is that it's now way harder for your academy guys to contribute. Liverpool basically need to be producing wins at an elite level every game now, and I honestly think it's already a HUGE victory that they've got one academy kid (Trent) in the team. The reasonable expectation is for Brewster and Wilson to never be contributors for Liverpool. Sancho and TAA are massive exceptions.
As for signings, they need to start adding guys in the 22 or 23 range -- players who can contribute right now and also keep developing.
I think its safe to expect Real Madrid and Barca to be back challenging for the champions league very soon, but do you foresee continued premier league dominance in the europa league? It just seems like the gap between 5th-7th place in the premier league and the rest of the top 5 leagues is massive in terms of tv revenue and expectations.
That's a great point about the Europa League. They've had half of the finalists over the past four years -- which is basically when the "top six" era began. Yeah, I think it's safe to say that we'll continue to see PL teams making deep runs.
Here is my take: I don't think Sarri at Juventus works on a tactical/squad level.
How does a veteran squad play in that physically demanding style? Pjanic is probably the best suited to play the regista role but that isn't his specialty, right? Are we expected Emre Can or Matuidi to do the running of Allan/Kante? Do they field Ronaldo, Dybala, Bernardeschi and Costa? Is Szczęsny the ball-playing keeper they need?
I think Juventus are in a window to win the Champions League before a lot of their squad ages out of their prime. Learning how to play Sarriball for a season seems like a waste of a season.
Are these concerns valid or am I looking at this too short term?
I think a lot of this Juventus season was smoke-and-mirrors. It left me convinced that they might not even have a Champions League window anymore. They played one good game in the knockout stages, and they required a biiiiiit of fortunate refereeing to even get past Atletico. They had ... the third-best xG differential in Serie A this season.
At least, I don't think they have the window if they play how they played this season. I actually think the team fits Sarri reasonably well. Pjanic had the regista profile before he came to Juve! Sarri would be the one to rekindle that. Also: Emre Can played for Jurgen freakin' Klopp. He can run. And so can Aaron Ramsey. Dybala, Bernardeschi, and Costa all seem like great Sarri fits to me, too. A declining 34-year-old Ronaldo who is being investigated for rape will remain the elephant in the room.
Timo Werner seems like an obvious one -- plays in a similar-ish system, has already produced at a really high level, can play across the front line, and is relatively young.
His play style really reminds me of Dirk Kuyt, but with the speed of Salah. One second he is clearing a ball off the line, then 30 seconds later he is in front of goal taking a shot on target
What does Liverpool's midfield look like next year with Ox coming back and Fabinho seeming to solidify his role? Is there enough minutes to keep Milner, Henderson, Gini, and Keita all happy?
We're gonna have a lot of games across so many competitions so hopefully we have no let off in rotation. Injuries seem to almost always sort this 'problem' out. Could also see Ox play at forward or see more diamond midfield too? We need more depth in attack so that we can rotate - can't imagine the big 3 staying as healthy as they did every year.
This is a good problem to have! The ideal is obviously Keita and Ox playing ahead of Fabinho. (Don't really care for the idea of Ox playing in the front 3, btw. He loses most of his value that way.) The club has some tough decisions to make over the next season to turn the squad over, but they're the decisions that basically any other club will kill to be in the position to make.
Taking Ryan's encouragement to talk amongst ourselves...I have the same question. Could mean LFC takes the cups more seriously, or rotates more. With Keita seemingly struggling for consistent fitness and Milner having to eventually slow down a tick (right?!?) it seems like a good amount of redundancy. But if they were to add a creative #10 like so many want them to.....yeah super crowded.
Don't agree with this! Shaqiri contributed significantly over the winter, and Coutinho is ... just a way better version of him. The team could really use someone who can shake things free against a packed-in D. Also, I've never watched Coutinho play and questioned his attitude. The team got better not because he left, but because they got a world-class defender and goalkeeper after he left.
mostly agree with you! I'm definitely still salty from his departure. I think immediately post-coutinho we were at peak Geigenpress so it seemed like hmmm, maybe he doesn't fit as well as the other players we have. But the playing style changed this year and there were definitely games (*ahem* mid winter string of draws) that were begging for a Coutinho le cut inside special. ok. mind changed. he can come back. for a cut price.
Timo Werner to Liverpool? Could you see him fitting in as a backup for both wing positions AND for Firmino? When I watched last season, I saw him playing some Firmino-esque defense as well as making some slick runs behind defenders on the wings
As a Spurs fan, I’m both excited and nervous about the club’s future. Poch has been a godsend, and in my opinion Levy has to do whatever it takes to get him to stay. If they make some of the rumored transfers (Lo Celso, Ndombele, Sessegnon, Grealish, Maddison, etc.), can they take that next step to actually compete for the league title? Or is this just a case of their ceiling being capped at 3rd/4th place + a consistent quarter finalist in Champions League play?
They have a A LOT to do if they wanna compete for a league title. They were 26 points back and even further away if you look at the underlying numbers. But! If they keep everyone and make some upgrades, then I don't see why they can't be the clear third-best team in the PL while also being a dangerous CL team every season.
Leroy Sane, player continues to confuse and slightly disappoint. I'm a passionate die mannschaft fan and I have high hopes for him, but he seems to have fallen out of favor with Pep. I would love to see him get regular playing time, and Bayern seems to be making a play for him, but won't spend over 80 million pounds, so move sounds unlikely (unless thats a negotiation ploy from the Bayern brass). Either way, would love to hear your thoughts on him as a player, and then Bayern's strategy going forward with the rebuild.
He's awesome, and I think him falling out of favor with City has more to do with the fact that Sterling is slightly better than him and also likes playing on the right. Sane's attacking numbers (north of 0.90 non-pen goals plus assists per 90) are incredible over the past two years, and he probably has another year until he's in his prime. He's wayyyyy better than Gnabry and Coman; basically, he's the perfect Robbery replacement. But I'm not sure City even want to sell.
When talking about Mustafi, you mentioned that you don't trust basic defensive stats (like tackles and interceptions). Any publicly available data that you trust on defenders? Also, opinions on Chris Smalling (strangely one of the only current United players I like)? You once mentioned that stats models like him.
You know, I think the best way to judge a defender with stats is to look at how the defense as a whole performs when he's on the field. Tackles, interceptions, etc. sort of just tell you what a defender is being asked to do in the system he plays in. Not a fan of Smalling -- can't really consider square the idea of him being a good defender with the fact that his keeper has had to stand on his head weekly for the past couple seasons.
Between Juventus TV and La Liga's pending in-house OTT platform, will clubs forming entire media divisions be worse for transparency? They already offer exclusive access to interviews, press conferences, and BTS footage- how long until they're bidding for live game rights?? How else is Antoine Griezmann supposed to fulfill his destiny as the next Werner Herzog???
Yeah, access barely exists in Europe as is, and it's hard for me to picture it getting any better. I dunno about bidding for game rights, though. These teams make a ton of money FROM television rights, so paying for them seems backward.
Also: don't you dare sully Werner Herzog's name like that.
Sturridge, Moreno confirmed leaving today. Likely Mignolet and Lallana and other fringe squad players. Will LFC look to sign like for like replacements - backup GK, Fullback, CAM, Striker? Who do you think they target? Do you think they look to improve any areas or just backfill the edges of the squad?
Wouldn't be shocked if Moreno went back to Sevilla/elsewhere in Spain. I also feel like Sturridge would be good in Serie A -- the speed just seems right for him at this stage in his career.
As for where LFC need to add players, there's really only one obvious are: the fourth attacker. The big difference between City and Liverpool: City's backup attackers were Leroy Sane, Riyad Mahrez, and Gabriel Jesus. Liverpool's were God, Sturridge, and Shaqiri. There was basically no drop-off for City when they rotated -- not the case for LFC. Bringing in a younger guy to take those minutes and eventually become first-choice seems like it'll be the priority.
There is a lot of smoke around this VVD possible Ballon d'or... The question is are there numbers to equate how much better he is in comparison to other cb's around the world? There are endless think pieces and we have lots of data (some good, some bad) about Ronaldo, Messi and other strikers that can be compared against that mold. Those numbers can paint a picture about a player's affect in the game.
Who's the 2nd best defender? Do we have data to back that up? Is it just dribbles defended, clearances, and tackles?
Frankly, defender data still isn't very good. At least, what I can get my hands on isn't. It's only useful, really, in extreme cases like VVD not being dribbled by or Aaron Wan-Bissaka completing an insane percentage of successful tackles. It's just such a situational position, where the context of your team determines the numbers you spit out. I'd probably say Raphael Varane is my second-favorite behind VVD, but I can't "prove" that you in any substantial way.
There's also other big intangibles like attacker avoidance (e.g. do attacking players change play style or positioning to avoid going 1v1 on defender) or defense organization (e.g. does defender push other defenders into correct positions or maintain offsides line) that have large effect but are difficult to quantify.
What can Arsenal do to fix the mess they currently find themselves in? Sell both or one of Aubameyang & Lacazette, followed by hard reset with younger Guendouzi-type signings?
Oh boy. I think they probably should sell one of those two -- just because they'll raise the most money and whoever remains can maybe pick up some of the attacking load. I'd probably go with Auba, as he's older and is coming off a golden boot, so you can probably get good value for him still, right before he's likely to decline. After that, I think you need, what, three new starting-quality defenders. I'm baffled by all of the transfer talk that's linking Arsenal to various attackers/attacking midfielders. The defense was terrible this season; the attack was very good. So, more high-ceiling Guendouzi-type signings, and if you're making a significant investment, it has to be in the back line.
I love watching Alex Mendez, but I don't like projecting these guys to the next level. Being good against under-20s is way different than being good against pros. What I'll say, though, is that it's a good sign that so many of these kids are playing in European academies.
Very cool... and I can certainly empathize (still reeling from preseason Julian Green highlights). Would love to see some Gold Cup analysis during the tourney! Super fascinated with how Berhalter's team actually plays...
Gabriel Jesus? Does he become the awesome, super efficient player he threatened to be in his first 2 seasons, or does he continue to be the silky smooth but low confidence backup option to Aguero? He's about to enter those prime 23-27 years for PL strikers?
Well, Hazard's older and on the last year of his deal, so his value's depressed. Jovic has one season in a top league with elite production. Coutinho had many years as an elite-level PL player. Plus, Barca had all that cash from Neymar, so they suffered from a bit of the premium that EPL teams have to pay for players b/c the sellers know how much money they have. Not really a 1-to-1 comp.
Either Goodman or Caley (I think Goodman) wrote about fixing Barcelona and he talked about how they bought Coutinho to replace Iniesta, but because Busquets and Rakitic were older and less rangy, they could no longer cover for a purely offensive midfielder, which means Coutinho has mostly played in the front 3 when deployed. Also Coutinho wants the ball to do stuff and Barca already has a guy named Messi who fits that profile.
Yeah, and he just doesn't really fit as an attacker with Messi. I'll probably write something about this at some point, but it must be hard for guys who are used to getting a ton of touches to then drop into the Barca system where Messi does everything (and does it all better than everyone else, mind you.) Kind of LeBron-esque, in a way. If you look at Coutinho's numbers, he's basically getting the same shots off as at Liverpool, but they're no longer going in. He was ahead of xG in his last two LFC seasons but behind it for Barca this year. The other big change is that his assist/chance-creation stuff has dropped off significantly. I gotta imagine that's a situational thing -- when Messi's doing all of that, there's not that much space for you to do it, either. Anyway, I think Coutinho does well wherever he goes after he (presumably) leaves Barca.
What European club team has the largest and most passionate following in the United States? Is it an American owned club like Liverpool? An obvious choice like Real Madrid? More star-centric than team-focused a la PSG?
I would imagine that it's Manchester United. It's definitely an English team, and they're the most popular English team with the most success over the past 20-25 years
Will transfer fees this summer be as high as previous years? While I believe transfer fees are steadily inflating, I believe big ticket signings like Neymar inflated fees the past couple windows. I doubt it was a bubble, but was it artificially high?
I don't think so. Basically, everyone inflated the values of their own players on their balance sheets after the Neymar transfer (which, remember, was not a negotiated fee), and everyone knew Barca had to spend big. I mean, look at Luka Jovic -- he's 21 and put up awesome numbers ... and yet he cost just just 65 mil.
As a Madrid fan, I think their summer will be really interesting. With Griezmann the most likely to sign, I wonder how he will fit into the current team. Will they sell Suarez? (probably not). Will he play on the right wing and Messi drop deeper? As shown at the end of the last season, I think they will need some reinforcements to contirbute on the attacking end that will actually fit the system. For that reason I wonder if they will have patience and keep Coutinho, or sell him and try to get another player that can attack from the midfield.
I don't love the Griezmann signing. This team is getting really old, and he isn't young. He also scores a decent amount on pens/FKs, neither of which he'll get to take for Barca. To me, this is another team that needs to fix its defense, not its offense. De Jong was a perfect signing, and he should have a knock-on effect of reinforcing the D because of his range. They're in a tough-ish spot: They have the best player of all-time and they should try to maximize their window with him still dominating -- he's the best in the world still, and it's not close ... at all -- but the way to do that, I think, is to start marginalizing a bunch of the other club legends.
Can you give us your take on Nicholas Pepe, one of the biggest LFC transfer rumor targets? His youtube highlights are mouth-watering, but so are everyone's.
I'm not quite sure I see LFC signing him? He scored nine penalties. Pretty good numbers in Ligue 1 (fifth-best xG+xA per 90), but to me, he seems like he'd be a backup at LFC during his time there.
I've watched him a bit, he's definitely got incredible ball skills, but in my opinion definitely lacks the shooting technique and skill to really be sucessful in that position at a big club in a bigger league. Reminds me of Vinicius Jr, in that sense (even though he had to start a lot of the games last season due to a void in the team). I would be wary of signing him if I were Liverpool. He could stuggle to justify the price tag given the lack of opportunity for starting (Shaqiri is already waiting for PT for the same position).
Ha man they could run FOREVER, but at least they mostly sucked. Nothing tops Clemson throwing out like 18 dudes who were built like football players, and ran like it too.
What big club has been the most successful at keeping squad players who could start at many other teams happy for prolonged stretches? And how have they done that? For Liverpool, I'm specifically thinking about how to replace Moreno and Mignolet with players whom you'd trust in big games (not necessarily to excel; instead, to avoid mistakes).
The short answer: The ones who can pay them a lot of money! Moreno and Mignolet are getting bigger salaries at Liverpool than they would at any of the teams they'd be able to start for.
Did Liverpool have an unusually lucky year in terms of health of its most valuable players? And looking forward, where do you think Liverpool is most lacking in depth?
It definitely helped having Salah and Mane and VVD on the field for almost every minute. But Firmino had on and off struggles, Joe Gomez missed most of the year, and Keita/Ox really only had a limited/nonexistent impact on things. They weren'y lucky; they just weren't unlucky.
need fullback and attacking support. gomez/milner are ok to fill in but they'll be needed elsewhere if Liverpool want to make runs in multiple competitions. rumors that they are in for de ligt which doesn't make sense with so much CB depth but if he wants to come, take him I guess.
Should anyone take a chance on Bale this summer? And if so, is there a scenario that you think is smart for a club, whether it’s a loan or permanent deal (feel free to use Tottenham as the example)
I heard someone suggest him as a possibility for Bayern on loan -- a cheap, temporary replacement for Robben and Ribery. Beyond that, I guess United could do something silly, but it's hard for me to envision anything else.
What kind of impact do you think Rhian Brewster will make at Liverpool next season? Personally I think he could be an excellent backup to Firmino and he’s got loads of potential
I'll respond to this with a larger point. The right back for the US plays for Ajax and the right winger played for Barcelona. This will eventually pay dividends.
i think el younoussi was supposed to help with that and he couldn't even get onto the pitch. i'm hoping for a true attacker that is reliable but we will see
What do you think happens to Chelsea losing Hazard and not being able to make transfers? I suppose we'll see lots of CHO and Pulisic next year? Seems like a rebuilding season almost.
Eek. If Juventus didn't change managers, then I would've predicted "a team other than Juve wins Serie A". But Sarri (who's reportedly gonna step in) is great, and I think he'll figure it out. So, I'll say one semi-bold precition: Atalanta is still in the Serie A title race come next March.
Bold. Why isn't Gasperini popping up in managerial swap rumors? His system is nonstop exciting football, and he's proven he can improve teams by leaps and bounds.
Who knows -- I can't imagine he was happy with his experience at Inter, so maybe he values the situation at Atalanta. Also, most of the Atalanta players are older, so I think they might be able to keep the squad together for a run this season.
There aren't many who aren't already playing, honestly. I think we underestimate how huge the jump is from the academy to "one of the best and richest teams in the world". The obvious one to me is Alex Iwobi. He didn't even play 2,000 minutes for Arsenal this season. I think he needs to be the centerpiece of the team; he has the potential to be that good. https://www.footballwhispers.com/blog/gold-iwobi-brighter-silva
Riffing off Goodman's Ringer article which discusses both the advantages and perils of having all your best players the same age, would you accept an unsolicited $100 million+ offer for Mane/Salah this summer and start the reloading process now? Or give it a few more years?
Reading that was actually part of the genesis for my question below. If the belief is that you can keep hitting on players of that quality I think you do it. But the question is can you?
I would hold off this summer, if you think you have a chance to beat City. If the club is convinced that they're actually farther away than the point totals suggested, then maybe you move on this summer. But I think I'd give it one more shot with this front three, and then cash in on Mane or Firmino next summer if you can. The team has a ton of money, but they probably need even more if they're gonna turnover the squad to keep the success going once the core ages out of its prime.
Hey Ryan. Do you think there's any chance Liverpool's current (let's call it "stats boom") era is a little bit like the early 2010s "La Masia" era Barcelona? What I mean by that is I remember at that time reading a decent amount of stuff that posited the idea that Barca were going to be bringing players of the Messi, Xavi, Busquets, Iniesta level through for the foreseeable future because La Masia was just set up so well. While they are definitely still an amazing team, I don't know that they've really brought through anyone of that level since?
Similarly I feel like I've read a lot of stuff as this season has wound down about the incredible work Liverpool's stats guys have done in the last few years in bringing in guys like Salah, Mane, Firminho, Robertson, etc. And it seems like the belief is that this will continue.
So I guess my question is, do you think Liverpool have had a little bit of hard-work-meets-good-fortune with their signings in the last few years, or is this just the new normal for Liverpool (and teams making analytics based purchases in general)?
There's always luck involved. No way anyone predicted that Salah would do what he did last year, and Firmino was signed before Michael Edwards and Co. sort of fully took over decision making. But at the same time, Keita was supposed to be a transformative transfer, and he was ... fine. Also, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain barely played at all this year. Here's what I'll say: the way Liverpool approach things makes it so that they rarely make mistakes. Almost every other big team in Europe are still signing players who end up barely contributing at all. It seems like the worst case, now, when Liverpool make an investment is that the guy they bring in becomes a consistent contributor and not a superstar. There's still a huge benefit for Liverpool in using numbers however they do b/c other teams aren't doing it. (See: Manchester United saying that signing star players is easy because everyone knows who they are.) That'll decrease over time, but you can also be confident that they'll do whatever they can to stay ahead of the curve.
Also: if I did another one of these during the Nations League semis tomorrow, would that be of interest?
Yes absolutely
Most definitely
Concur!
No one cares about the US u20s against France?!?!?!?!? (It is not going well.)
2-2!
3-2
Obviously hard to predict how they will develop but which player(s) on the US would you expect to make the 2022 roster (assuming we qualify this time)
Chris Richards is probably the best guy on this squad. Pomykal and Weah can also be difference makers a the senior level. Several other guys have shown serious promise in the tournament like Llanez and Mendez.
There's still so much projection involved with any of these guys who aren't already contributing at the pro level. I love watching Mendez, but like, he's playing against under-20s. He seems like he's got a special skillset, but so much else has to happen for those skills to translate into effectiveness in the Bundesliga or wherever. I guess my one takeaway from this tournament is that ... it's kind of concerning that Weah hasn't looked better, given that he's dropped down a level to play in these games.
It has to be Weah at the very least, right? Our current striker options aren't great otherwise.
Weah is not really a central striker. He played there in the Ukraine game and kept drifting out to the left, which is where he seems most comfortable.
When will Donnie Kwak eat the cleat???
It's never gonna happen. We all need to move on. Donnie's words no longer have any value.
Not that you are Ryan or asking for an opinion on it (and not that Ryan would ever admit it) but that pod has dropped from CL contender to lucky to make it to europa qualifying levels.
Because Ryan is no longer on it? Or because Donnie refuses to eat the cleat? For what it's worth Ryan, you're sorely missed on Ringer FC. I get my Liverpool fix from The Anfield Wrap, but Across the Pond, Double Pivot, and Football Ramble are okay-ish substitutes.
Ryan was by far the most knowledgable and insightful of the bunch. Stopped listening to it midway through the season. Guardian football weekly is the best IMO.
OK -- that's it for today! Thanks for all the thoughtful Qs. We'll do a bunch more of these, since it seems like there's interest. And if you all feel like continuing to chat in here, go for it. I trust you to not devolve this thing into a YouTube comments section!
Hey Ryan, what are your thoughts on Real Madrid signing Luka Jovic? Also do you have any book recommendations on the beautiful game?
He's young and he's already great -- the exact signing that Madrid needs to be making. (Sounds obvious, but only a handful of teams can afford players like that!) As for books: Inverting the Pyramid, The Italian Job, Soccernomics, Soccer in Sun and Shadow, Soccer Against the Enemy ...
You forgot The Away Game! You tipped that in one of your letters a few months back and I absolutely loved it. Thanks man.
I'm gonna run in a couple minutes, but am around to answer another question or two if anyone has one!
Curious on your take for Liverpool's strategy of incoming transfers v. promoting talent from within, and how other teams are managing this as well. As we've seen with Sancho, teams risk losing players if they don't have a route to the first team, but with Liverpool's current primary players all in an age range of 25-28 it seems like bringing in more established players makes sense. It could be a simple question of "promote Brewster and Wilson or sign Werner/Depay/whoever else the rumor of the day lists" but it seems a bigger question than that.
I've said this in a couple other answers already, but the thing about becoming the best team in Europe is that it's now way harder for your academy guys to contribute. Liverpool basically need to be producing wins at an elite level every game now, and I honestly think it's already a HUGE victory that they've got one academy kid (Trent) in the team. The reasonable expectation is for Brewster and Wilson to never be contributors for Liverpool. Sancho and TAA are massive exceptions.
As for signings, they need to start adding guys in the 22 or 23 range -- players who can contribute right now and also keep developing.
Thanks, Ryan!
I think its safe to expect Real Madrid and Barca to be back challenging for the champions league very soon, but do you foresee continued premier league dominance in the europa league? It just seems like the gap between 5th-7th place in the premier league and the rest of the top 5 leagues is massive in terms of tv revenue and expectations.
That's a great point about the Europa League. They've had half of the finalists over the past four years -- which is basically when the "top six" era began. Yeah, I think it's safe to say that we'll continue to see PL teams making deep runs.
Here is my take: I don't think Sarri at Juventus works on a tactical/squad level.
How does a veteran squad play in that physically demanding style? Pjanic is probably the best suited to play the regista role but that isn't his specialty, right? Are we expected Emre Can or Matuidi to do the running of Allan/Kante? Do they field Ronaldo, Dybala, Bernardeschi and Costa? Is Szczęsny the ball-playing keeper they need?
I think Juventus are in a window to win the Champions League before a lot of their squad ages out of their prime. Learning how to play Sarriball for a season seems like a waste of a season.
Are these concerns valid or am I looking at this too short term?
I think a lot of this Juventus season was smoke-and-mirrors. It left me convinced that they might not even have a Champions League window anymore. They played one good game in the knockout stages, and they required a biiiiiit of fortunate refereeing to even get past Atletico. They had ... the third-best xG differential in Serie A this season.
At least, I don't think they have the window if they play how they played this season. I actually think the team fits Sarri reasonably well. Pjanic had the regista profile before he came to Juve! Sarri would be the one to rekindle that. Also: Emre Can played for Jurgen freakin' Klopp. He can run. And so can Aaron Ramsey. Dybala, Bernardeschi, and Costa all seem like great Sarri fits to me, too. A declining 34-year-old Ronaldo who is being investigated for rape will remain the elephant in the room.
Who would be your top transfer targets for Liverpool?
Timo Werner seems like an obvious one -- plays in a similar-ish system, has already produced at a really high level, can play across the front line, and is relatively young.
His play style really reminds me of Dirk Kuyt, but with the speed of Salah. One second he is clearing a ball off the line, then 30 seconds later he is in front of goal taking a shot on target
What does Liverpool's midfield look like next year with Ox coming back and Fabinho seeming to solidify his role? Is there enough minutes to keep Milner, Henderson, Gini, and Keita all happy?
We're gonna have a lot of games across so many competitions so hopefully we have no let off in rotation. Injuries seem to almost always sort this 'problem' out. Could also see Ox play at forward or see more diamond midfield too? We need more depth in attack so that we can rotate - can't imagine the big 3 staying as healthy as they did every year.
This is a good problem to have! The ideal is obviously Keita and Ox playing ahead of Fabinho. (Don't really care for the idea of Ox playing in the front 3, btw. He loses most of his value that way.) The club has some tough decisions to make over the next season to turn the squad over, but they're the decisions that basically any other club will kill to be in the position to make.
Good point. Would be interesting to see some 4-1-3-2 as well. I think Klopp used some of that at Dortmund
Taking Ryan's encouragement to talk amongst ourselves...I have the same question. Could mean LFC takes the cups more seriously, or rotates more. With Keita seemingly struggling for consistent fitness and Milner having to eventually slow down a tick (right?!?) it seems like a good amount of redundancy. But if they were to add a creative #10 like so many want them to.....yeah super crowded.
...coutinho?!
-80% chance he comes back. Playing style and attitude are clearly not part of the club identity anymore.
Don't agree with this! Shaqiri contributed significantly over the winter, and Coutinho is ... just a way better version of him. The team could really use someone who can shake things free against a packed-in D. Also, I've never watched Coutinho play and questioned his attitude. The team got better not because he left, but because they got a world-class defender and goalkeeper after he left.
mostly agree with you! I'm definitely still salty from his departure. I think immediately post-coutinho we were at peak Geigenpress so it seemed like hmmm, maybe he doesn't fit as well as the other players we have. But the playing style changed this year and there were definitely games (*ahem* mid winter string of draws) that were begging for a Coutinho le cut inside special. ok. mind changed. he can come back. for a cut price.
Ryan, love the newsletter. Really good data and insightful commentary. A few commentators on the major networks would do well to follow your lead.
Thanks, Rico!
Timo Werner to Liverpool? Could you see him fitting in as a backup for both wing positions AND for Firmino? When I watched last season, I saw him playing some Firmino-esque defense as well as making some slick runs behind defenders on the wings
Said this below -- seems like the perfect signing for them.
Has there ever been a more fun or catchy player-themed supporters song than the Dirty Old Town remix for Virgil van Dijk? #CalmAsYouLike
Nothing will ever beat this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqOZB-zEPvM
As a Spurs fan, I’m both excited and nervous about the club’s future. Poch has been a godsend, and in my opinion Levy has to do whatever it takes to get him to stay. If they make some of the rumored transfers (Lo Celso, Ndombele, Sessegnon, Grealish, Maddison, etc.), can they take that next step to actually compete for the league title? Or is this just a case of their ceiling being capped at 3rd/4th place + a consistent quarter finalist in Champions League play?
To follow up, who leaves first- Poch or Kane?
They have a A LOT to do if they wanna compete for a league title. They were 26 points back and even further away if you look at the underlying numbers. But! If they keep everyone and make some upgrades, then I don't see why they can't be the clear third-best team in the PL while also being a dangerous CL team every season.
Are we sure ... Kane wants to leave? Haven't heard much -- if anything -- about that. So: Poch.
Leroy Sane, player continues to confuse and slightly disappoint. I'm a passionate die mannschaft fan and I have high hopes for him, but he seems to have fallen out of favor with Pep. I would love to see him get regular playing time, and Bayern seems to be making a play for him, but won't spend over 80 million pounds, so move sounds unlikely (unless thats a negotiation ploy from the Bayern brass). Either way, would love to hear your thoughts on him as a player, and then Bayern's strategy going forward with the rebuild.
He's awesome, and I think him falling out of favor with City has more to do with the fact that Sterling is slightly better than him and also likes playing on the right. Sane's attacking numbers (north of 0.90 non-pen goals plus assists per 90) are incredible over the past two years, and he probably has another year until he's in his prime. He's wayyyyy better than Gnabry and Coman; basically, he's the perfect Robbery replacement. But I'm not sure City even want to sell.
*Also likes playing on the left
When talking about Mustafi, you mentioned that you don't trust basic defensive stats (like tackles and interceptions). Any publicly available data that you trust on defenders? Also, opinions on Chris Smalling (strangely one of the only current United players I like)? You once mentioned that stats models like him.
You know, I think the best way to judge a defender with stats is to look at how the defense as a whole performs when he's on the field. Tackles, interceptions, etc. sort of just tell you what a defender is being asked to do in the system he plays in. Not a fan of Smalling -- can't really consider square the idea of him being a good defender with the fact that his keeper has had to stand on his head weekly for the past couple seasons.
What's up with this Griezmann situation, he's out at Atletico, but Barcelona players don't want him? Is this smoke or is he left out to dry?
after all the public posturing he's done, he should be left out to dry for a bit.
Very weird. Maybe he'll just sit out a year until Inter Miami starts playing.
Could happen! Then Suarez joins at the last minute vacating the space he was planning to occupy at Barca.
Between Juventus TV and La Liga's pending in-house OTT platform, will clubs forming entire media divisions be worse for transparency? They already offer exclusive access to interviews, press conferences, and BTS footage- how long until they're bidding for live game rights?? How else is Antoine Griezmann supposed to fulfill his destiny as the next Werner Herzog???
Yeah, access barely exists in Europe as is, and it's hard for me to picture it getting any better. I dunno about bidding for game rights, though. These teams make a ton of money FROM television rights, so paying for them seems backward.
Also: don't you dare sully Werner Herzog's name like that.
Thanks! And duly noted, though I still think he wins a Palme d'Or before a Ballon d'Or.
Sturridge, Moreno confirmed leaving today. Likely Mignolet and Lallana and other fringe squad players. Will LFC look to sign like for like replacements - backup GK, Fullback, CAM, Striker? Who do you think they target? Do you think they look to improve any areas or just backfill the edges of the squad?
Related, where do you think are good landing places for Sturridge and Moreno? That is, places where they can be successful.
Wouldn't be shocked if Moreno went back to Sevilla/elsewhere in Spain. I also feel like Sturridge would be good in Serie A -- the speed just seems right for him at this stage in his career.
As for where LFC need to add players, there's really only one obvious are: the fourth attacker. The big difference between City and Liverpool: City's backup attackers were Leroy Sane, Riyad Mahrez, and Gabriel Jesus. Liverpool's were God, Sturridge, and Shaqiri. There was basically no drop-off for City when they rotated -- not the case for LFC. Bringing in a younger guy to take those minutes and eventually become first-choice seems like it'll be the priority.
what will man utd's starting 11 look like next season
100% anyone's guess
Yikes. Uh, I'll give you two predictions: it includes James Maddison and it doesn't include Paul Pogba.
If VVD picks up the nations league, it's hard to dispute his legitimate candidacy for Balon D'or
He's not the best player in the world, but he fits the narrative, sure.
There is a lot of smoke around this VVD possible Ballon d'or... The question is are there numbers to equate how much better he is in comparison to other cb's around the world? There are endless think pieces and we have lots of data (some good, some bad) about Ronaldo, Messi and other strikers that can be compared against that mold. Those numbers can paint a picture about a player's affect in the game.
Who's the 2nd best defender? Do we have data to back that up? Is it just dribbles defended, clearances, and tackles?
Frankly, defender data still isn't very good. At least, what I can get my hands on isn't. It's only useful, really, in extreme cases like VVD not being dribbled by or Aaron Wan-Bissaka completing an insane percentage of successful tackles. It's just such a situational position, where the context of your team determines the numbers you spit out. I'd probably say Raphael Varane is my second-favorite behind VVD, but I can't "prove" that you in any substantial way.
There's also other big intangibles like attacker avoidance (e.g. do attacking players change play style or positioning to avoid going 1v1 on defender) or defense organization (e.g. does defender push other defenders into correct positions or maintain offsides line) that have large effect but are difficult to quantify.
Nico Morales, greatest football writer of all time? Thanks.
Definitely my favorite writer on the UAE's payroll.
What can Arsenal do to fix the mess they currently find themselves in? Sell both or one of Aubameyang & Lacazette, followed by hard reset with younger Guendouzi-type signings?
Oh boy. I think they probably should sell one of those two -- just because they'll raise the most money and whoever remains can maybe pick up some of the attacking load. I'd probably go with Auba, as he's older and is coming off a golden boot, so you can probably get good value for him still, right before he's likely to decline. After that, I think you need, what, three new starting-quality defenders. I'm baffled by all of the transfer talk that's linking Arsenal to various attackers/attacking midfielders. The defense was terrible this season; the attack was very good. So, more high-ceiling Guendouzi-type signings, and if you're making a significant investment, it has to be in the back line.
I swoon for USMNT prospects every time.... Any thoughts on this US u20 team this tourney? Can Weah be the LW of the future?
This seems like a pretty good guide for how the full USMNT should play against teams they're not favored against! https://twitter.com/oh_that_crab/status/1135961804599808000
I love watching Alex Mendez, but I don't like projecting these guys to the next level. Being good against under-20s is way different than being good against pros. What I'll say, though, is that it's a good sign that so many of these kids are playing in European academies.
Very cool... and I can certainly empathize (still reeling from preseason Julian Green highlights). Would love to see some Gold Cup analysis during the tourney! Super fascinated with how Berhalter's team actually plays...
Do you think Getafe will get an opp to play Valencia in a 4th place playoff after the match-fixing scandal that broke today?
Think we're gonna need more reporting on this before anyone can say anything. There's also an (unconfirmed!) report that Getafe offered Valladolid money to beat Valenica. I don't know; feels like a couple more shoes might drop here. https://www.marca.com/en/football/spanish-football/2019/06/04/5cf64982e2704ef9228b4628.html
Gabriel Jesus? Does he become the awesome, super efficient player he threatened to be in his first 2 seasons, or does he continue to be the silky smooth but low confidence backup option to Aguero? He's about to enter those prime 23-27 years for PL strikers?
hilarious that Real might get Hazard/Jovic in from less than what Coutinho cost Barca.
Well, Hazard's older and on the last year of his deal, so his value's depressed. Jovic has one season in a top league with elite production. Coutinho had many years as an elite-level PL player. Plus, Barca had all that cash from Neymar, so they suffered from a bit of the premium that EPL teams have to pay for players b/c the sellers know how much money they have. Not really a 1-to-1 comp.
Fair dues, is there any particular reason Coutinho has had such a rough start in La Liga?
Either Goodman or Caley (I think Goodman) wrote about fixing Barcelona and he talked about how they bought Coutinho to replace Iniesta, but because Busquets and Rakitic were older and less rangy, they could no longer cover for a purely offensive midfielder, which means Coutinho has mostly played in the front 3 when deployed. Also Coutinho wants the ball to do stuff and Barca already has a guy named Messi who fits that profile.
Yeah, and he just doesn't really fit as an attacker with Messi. I'll probably write something about this at some point, but it must be hard for guys who are used to getting a ton of touches to then drop into the Barca system where Messi does everything (and does it all better than everyone else, mind you.) Kind of LeBron-esque, in a way. If you look at Coutinho's numbers, he's basically getting the same shots off as at Liverpool, but they're no longer going in. He was ahead of xG in his last two LFC seasons but behind it for Barca this year. The other big change is that his assist/chance-creation stuff has dropped off significantly. I gotta imagine that's a situational thing -- when Messi's doing all of that, there's not that much space for you to do it, either. Anyway, I think Coutinho does well wherever he goes after he (presumably) leaves Barca.
Messi... best free kick taker in the history of the sport?
Juninho would like a word ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cu79Lpabhkk
What European club team has the largest and most passionate following in the United States? Is it an American owned club like Liverpool? An obvious choice like Real Madrid? More star-centric than team-focused a la PSG?
I would imagine that it's Manchester United. It's definitely an English team, and they're the most popular English team with the most success over the past 20-25 years
Will transfer fees this summer be as high as previous years? While I believe transfer fees are steadily inflating, I believe big ticket signings like Neymar inflated fees the past couple windows. I doubt it was a bubble, but was it artificially high?
I don't think so. Basically, everyone inflated the values of their own players on their balance sheets after the Neymar transfer (which, remember, was not a negotiated fee), and everyone knew Barca had to spend big. I mean, look at Luka Jovic -- he's 21 and put up awesome numbers ... and yet he cost just just 65 mil.
If you had to choose to sell one of LFC's starting XI, who would it be and who would you choose to replace him?
Would probably be Mane, I guess? Overshot his xG this year, value's never gonna be higher, etc.
Calling it now, Leicester will finish at least 6th, maybe even 5th.
Was a conductor on the Leicester train -- until this happened: https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11712/11716896/lee-congerton-follows-brendan-rodgers-to-leicester-as-head-of-recruitment
Any thoughts on Barca's summer moves?
As a Madrid fan, I think their summer will be really interesting. With Griezmann the most likely to sign, I wonder how he will fit into the current team. Will they sell Suarez? (probably not). Will he play on the right wing and Messi drop deeper? As shown at the end of the last season, I think they will need some reinforcements to contirbute on the attacking end that will actually fit the system. For that reason I wonder if they will have patience and keep Coutinho, or sell him and try to get another player that can attack from the midfield.
I don't love the Griezmann signing. This team is getting really old, and he isn't young. He also scores a decent amount on pens/FKs, neither of which he'll get to take for Barca. To me, this is another team that needs to fix its defense, not its offense. De Jong was a perfect signing, and he should have a knock-on effect of reinforcing the D because of his range. They're in a tough-ish spot: They have the best player of all-time and they should try to maximize their window with him still dominating -- he's the best in the world still, and it's not close ... at all -- but the way to do that, I think, is to start marginalizing a bunch of the other club legends.
Do you think Man City will be allowed to play in the Champions League next year?
Yes, but I really have no idea.
Can you give us your take on Nicholas Pepe, one of the biggest LFC transfer rumor targets? His youtube highlights are mouth-watering, but so are everyone's.
I'm not quite sure I see LFC signing him? He scored nine penalties. Pretty good numbers in Ligue 1 (fifth-best xG+xA per 90), but to me, he seems like he'd be a backup at LFC during his time there.
I've watched him a bit, he's definitely got incredible ball skills, but in my opinion definitely lacks the shooting technique and skill to really be sucessful in that position at a big club in a bigger league. Reminds me of Vinicius Jr, in that sense (even though he had to start a lot of the games last season due to a void in the team). I would be wary of signing him if I were Liverpool. He could stuggle to justify the price tag given the lack of opportunity for starting (Shaqiri is already waiting for PT for the same position).
How do you feel about the proposed change in college soccer to 3 subs and that's it? I'm a big fan
I guess I support it -- Navy made full-scale line changes against us my senior year. Playing against them fucking sucked.
Ha man they could run FOREVER, but at least they mostly sucked. Nothing tops Clemson throwing out like 18 dudes who were built like football players, and ran like it too.
What big club has been the most successful at keeping squad players who could start at many other teams happy for prolonged stretches? And how have they done that? For Liverpool, I'm specifically thinking about how to replace Moreno and Mignolet with players whom you'd trust in big games (not necessarily to excel; instead, to avoid mistakes).
The short answer: The ones who can pay them a lot of money! Moreno and Mignolet are getting bigger salaries at Liverpool than they would at any of the teams they'd be able to start for.
Did Liverpool have an unusually lucky year in terms of health of its most valuable players? And looking forward, where do you think Liverpool is most lacking in depth?
It definitely helped having Salah and Mane and VVD on the field for almost every minute. But Firmino had on and off struggles, Joe Gomez missed most of the year, and Keita/Ox really only had a limited/nonexistent impact on things. They weren'y lucky; they just weren't unlucky.
need fullback and attacking support. gomez/milner are ok to fill in but they'll be needed elsewhere if Liverpool want to make runs in multiple competitions. rumors that they are in for de ligt which doesn't make sense with so much CB depth but if he wants to come, take him I guess.
Who takes the African Cup of Nations? Copa?
GOLD CUP?
Let's say: Senegal, Brazil, and ... Mexico. Boring -- sorry.
Should anyone take a chance on Bale this summer? And if so, is there a scenario that you think is smart for a club, whether it’s a loan or permanent deal (feel free to use Tottenham as the example)
I heard someone suggest him as a possibility for Bayern on loan -- a cheap, temporary replacement for Robben and Ribery. Beyond that, I guess United could do something silly, but it's hard for me to envision anything else.
Bill Simmons voice. Ozil - Bale loan swap? Who says no?
Oh god. I guess ... no one?
What kind of impact do you think Rhian Brewster will make at Liverpool next season? Personally I think he could be an excellent backup to Firmino and he’s got loads of potential
I'm not counting on it. Liverpool are arguably the best team in the world right now. That's a HUGE leap for Brewster.
Watching the U-20 France vs. USA match. Who are some of the young prospects for the US outside of the big names in the Bundesliga?
I'll respond to this with a larger point. The right back for the US plays for Ajax and the right winger played for Barcelona. This will eventually pay dividends.
what should southampton do in the transfer window?
Buy an actual attacker or two and stop trying to paste Danny Ings, Shane Long, and Charlie Austin together.
i think el younoussi was supposed to help with that and he couldn't even get onto the pitch. i'm hoping for a true attacker that is reliable but we will see
I liked the el younoussi signing at the time, but sometimes things just don't work out, even if the thought behind it was sound
What do you think happens to Chelsea losing Hazard and not being able to make transfers? I suppose we'll see lots of CHO and Pulisic next year? Seems like a rebuilding season almost.
And who knows when CHO will be available. Achilles don't heel (not sic) overnight.
Yep very true
I think they still might end up finishing top four anyway. The RLC injury is really rough, but Arsenal and United have a long way to go.
Early predictions for next year?
Eek. If Juventus didn't change managers, then I would've predicted "a team other than Juve wins Serie A". But Sarri (who's reportedly gonna step in) is great, and I think he'll figure it out. So, I'll say one semi-bold precition: Atalanta is still in the Serie A title race come next March.
Eh, I'll throw in another one: The Top Six isn't the top six next season.
Bold. Why isn't Gasperini popping up in managerial swap rumors? His system is nonstop exciting football, and he's proven he can improve teams by leaps and bounds.
Pretty sure he just signed a new contract at the end of the season. Problem is Napoli are snooping around Zapata.
Who knows -- I can't imagine he was happy with his experience at Inter, so maybe he values the situation at Atalanta. Also, most of the Atalanta players are older, so I think they might be able to keep the squad together for a run this season.
Who are some younger players on Big 6 squads in the EPL that you want to see get more tick next year?
There aren't many who aren't already playing, honestly. I think we underestimate how huge the jump is from the academy to "one of the best and richest teams in the world". The obvious one to me is Alex Iwobi. He didn't even play 2,000 minutes for Arsenal this season. I think he needs to be the centerpiece of the team; he has the potential to be that good. https://www.footballwhispers.com/blog/gold-iwobi-brighter-silva
Riffing off Goodman's Ringer article which discusses both the advantages and perils of having all your best players the same age, would you accept an unsolicited $100 million+ offer for Mane/Salah this summer and start the reloading process now? Or give it a few more years?
Reading that was actually part of the genesis for my question below. If the belief is that you can keep hitting on players of that quality I think you do it. But the question is can you?
I would hold off this summer, if you think you have a chance to beat City. If the club is convinced that they're actually farther away than the point totals suggested, then maybe you move on this summer. But I think I'd give it one more shot with this front three, and then cash in on Mane or Firmino next summer if you can. The team has a ton of money, but they probably need even more if they're gonna turnover the squad to keep the success going once the core ages out of its prime.
Hey Ryan. Do you think there's any chance Liverpool's current (let's call it "stats boom") era is a little bit like the early 2010s "La Masia" era Barcelona? What I mean by that is I remember at that time reading a decent amount of stuff that posited the idea that Barca were going to be bringing players of the Messi, Xavi, Busquets, Iniesta level through for the foreseeable future because La Masia was just set up so well. While they are definitely still an amazing team, I don't know that they've really brought through anyone of that level since?
Similarly I feel like I've read a lot of stuff as this season has wound down about the incredible work Liverpool's stats guys have done in the last few years in bringing in guys like Salah, Mane, Firminho, Robertson, etc. And it seems like the belief is that this will continue.
So I guess my question is, do you think Liverpool have had a little bit of hard-work-meets-good-fortune with their signings in the last few years, or is this just the new normal for Liverpool (and teams making analytics based purchases in general)?
There's always luck involved. No way anyone predicted that Salah would do what he did last year, and Firmino was signed before Michael Edwards and Co. sort of fully took over decision making. But at the same time, Keita was supposed to be a transformative transfer, and he was ... fine. Also, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain barely played at all this year. Here's what I'll say: the way Liverpool approach things makes it so that they rarely make mistakes. Almost every other big team in Europe are still signing players who end up barely contributing at all. It seems like the worst case, now, when Liverpool make an investment is that the guy they bring in becomes a consistent contributor and not a superstar. There's still a huge benefit for Liverpool in using numbers however they do b/c other teams aren't doing it. (See: Manchester United saying that signing star players is easy because everyone knows who they are.) That'll decrease over time, but you can also be confident that they'll do whatever they can to stay ahead of the curve.