119 Comments
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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Can't imagine what it's like for Thiago to get to play with his idol, James Milner.

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Nick Adams's avatar

Yeah but Liverpool might not even be able to get Thiago on the field because... *double checks notes* Diogo Jota is playing too well.

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Nick Adams's avatar

I’m the wrong conversation haha

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

I officially feel really bad for Kepa now.

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Not a huge test in the second half, but Fabinho has been fantastic today.

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Eddie G's avatar

Was really impressed by his work against Werner.

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

#ThiagoOut

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Eddie G's avatar

Love to see the hop finally fail

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Melvin's avatar

the regression gods have spoken

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Melvin's avatar

Does his hair qualify him as a #BaldFraud?

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Avi Tyagi's avatar

Does he know he's playing for Liverpool and not Leicester?

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Thiago's per-90 plus-mins is plus-18.

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Eddie G's avatar

What about other elite midfielders? How noisy is a stat like that?

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Very. Really had to apportion credit since there are so few subs, unlike basketball. People have tried using FIFA ratings -- yep -- to fix that: http://stat.cmu.edu/~fmatano/links/cmsac18_presentation.pdf

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Eddie G's avatar

The juxtaposition of equations that fly comfortably over my head and the serious use of FIFA ratings in this analysis is brilliant

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

LFC are a man up in a game they were already controlling pretty aggressively. This is setting up pretty nicely for a Thiago debut, huh?

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Emanuel's avatar

Guessing Chelsea will now be in a deeper compact block, so perfect game for Thiago. Who comes off though?

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Eddie G's avatar

Yeah buddy. Who would you replace?

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Gini seems like he has the least use -- main skills are positioning and never losing the ball -- in a game where you're a man up.

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Eddie G's avatar

Yeah. And you figure Thiago has at least equivalent positional sense -- albeit in a new system -- plus the ability to play line-breaking balls. Should be interesting (read: trying to temper excitement over here).

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Looks like Lampard realized that Havertz shouldn't be on the wing. Him in the middle and Werner on the left scares me way more if I'm a Liverpool fan (which I am).

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Melvin's avatar

Feel like it would be a lot scarier with Pulisic or Ziyech instead of Mount

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

All right! That was boring? Thiago came on and halftime and completed 17 more passes than any Chelsea player over 90 minutes. Thanks for everyone who hopped on -- and for all the kind words. We'll do another one soon.

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Craig Henderson's avatar

Glad you’re feeling a bit better, Ryan. Hope the recovery keeps steady.

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

I do think that this second half has been an example of the difference between City and Liverpool. City would be up by more and just pouring on the shots. Liverpool quickly scored twice and then just haven't done that. I'm not sure Liverpool could do what City do, but I definitely think they dial back the pressure once they feel comfortable with a lead. Could come back to bite them at times, but I do think it's a choice.

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El Pibe's avatar

When are they rebooting Twilight with my boy Havertz? He's got the textbook complexion and body-type of a tortured vampire

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Pretty nerdy piece, but thought this was a good framework to use to watch teams during more advanced build-up play. It was especially stark with Tottenham today -- they have no shape whatsoever -- but it's interesting to see the differences today, too. https://spielverlagerung.com/2020/09/18/analysing-manchester-citys-attack-structural-considerations-and-variations/

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Melvin's avatar

“No plan, no shape, just Son” -mou

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Eddie G's avatar

Illuminating as a reference lens for this City - Wolves game; noticed especially Sterling's positioning in the channel between Boly and Coady. Thanks for sharing, and glad you're on the mend.

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Zero shots for Chelsea, 20 minutes in. Based on the games from the other big London clubs this weekend, they're going to win easily.

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Chelsea fans/observers: Would you rather have Kepa or Karius?

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Sebastian Pardo's avatar

11 field players?

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Sam's avatar

omg jorginho just died

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

I have a theory that the number of touches you take with the sole of your foot is directly correlated with your quality as a midfielder. Thiago proves that I'm right.

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Incredible ball by Wijnaldum to TAA. Great vision, technique.

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Lampard's running a Barkley-Kante two-man midfield for the final 10 minutes. This should be fun.

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

That was the first pk Alisson has saved for Liverpool.

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

The journalist in me: This could end 4-0, maybe 5-0. The Liverpool fan: Really need a third goal to feel comfortable.

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Avi Tyagi's avatar

That's the Lovren pain talking

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Emanuel's avatar

Up two-zero and up one man is usually when I go with the conserve energy tactic on football manager.

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Is Henderson injured? My Peacock (jesus) stopped working for a few minutes.

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Sam's avatar

on broadcast they said hes working his way back into form...nothing specific

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Smozi's avatar

Yeah thats what they say on sky

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Emanuel's avatar

They didn't say that on the broadcast at least

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Little stat update at half:

xG: Chelsea 0.5, Liverpool 0.44

Shots (OT): 1 (0), 8 (2)

Final-third passes: 15, 62

Penalty-area passes: 1, 7

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Emanuel's avatar

That shot by Werner was 0.5 even outside the area?

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Whoops, that should say 0.05

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Klayton A's avatar

What is your go to site for this type of information?

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

The Stats Zone app has everything but xG for Premier League games. FBRef has the most detailed game data, but it doesn't come out until the following day. I have access to some proprietary stuff from Stats Perform. You can get in game stuff from WhoScored, but the site is kind of annoying. And I believe InfoGol has free in-game xG data.

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Klayton A's avatar

InfoGol is the one I use the most, so I was just curious. Thank you for the answer <3

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

This isn't exactly right, but the value of a first-minute red card is about 1.45 goals. Cut that in half for the Christensen card, then it's worth 0.73 goals. Was the likelihood of Mane scoring from that situation more or less than 73 percent?

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Alex's avatar

At what point in the game is it better to take the foul/red card than not?

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Jonathan's avatar

I'd say it was less. A penalty is somewhere between .75 and .80 goals and I think this situation is worse than that. Kepa might get there first which is already reducing the probability. Also, Mane is still 25 or 30 yards away from goal and there's a possibility a bad touch brings more Chelsea players back into the play. It's close though.

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Sebastian Pardo's avatar

I feel like the ball was still going a bit too fast, if Kepa didn’t clatter into all of them and create a Red and/or Injury, the ball would kind of gotten away from all of them. Maybe a shade under .73

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Melvin's avatar

Seems about equal, no? One touch to dribble Kepa, then an open goal

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

yeah, basically the same chance of converting a penalty. So ... he was fucked either way.

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Melvin's avatar

I mean, clearly the better choice is to pull Mane’s shirt back, and hope to get away with a yellow

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Red?

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Sebastian Pardo's avatar

Christensen saved Kepa from getting a Red. Hero.

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Sam's avatar

kepa easily would have floundered that w/o tackle too

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Melvin's avatar

DOGSO

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Yanal Dhailieh's avatar

VAR looking good

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Sebastian Pardo's avatar

The fake fans boooooo

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Sam's avatar

looked pretty bad...

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Eddie G's avatar

Gotta be

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Eddie G's avatar

Always appreciate Lee Dixon on comms. This gem from one of yesterday's matches:

Arlo: “Gary Lineker, what happened to him?”

Lee: “I think he’s selling crisps or something”

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Predictions, anyone?

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Smozi's avatar

2-1 Liverpool

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Yeil Park's avatar

2-2 with a late Liverpool equalizer

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Melvin's avatar

2-3, Liverpool

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Eddie G's avatar

Having watched a lot of Havertz last season at Leverkusen, would love to see what a nominal 4-2-3-1 with Havertz in the middle of the three behind Werner would look like. Feel like his potential contribution is marginalized being deployed on the right.

Obviously as far as fitness Chelsea don't have the squad for that today - would like to see Pulisic on the left/Ziyech on the right - but I think it's at least an interesting idea. Would be interested to hear what others (especially Chelsea fans) think about this, especially as regards the best partner for Kante in the 2 in front of the back four.

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Avi Tyagi's avatar

Liverpool: The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated

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Michael K's avatar

I’d like to revisit your Kepa or Karius question and say, unequivocally, I’d prefer Karius

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Pray for Michael, everyone.

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Smozi's avatar

Turns out fabinho is the 2nd best CB on Liverpool

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

No respect for Sepp Van Den Berg.

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Yeil Park's avatar

Did NBC mess this up by putting so many EPL matches on Peacock premium?

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Never underestimate a corporation's ability to find new ways to screw over its consumers!

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Sam's avatar

in terms of getting people to sign up for peacock its a pretty good idea imo. i certainly didn't sign up for peacock to watch AP BIO...

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Daniel Gray's avatar

How is everyone watching the game? Where is it being aired? Just Peacock?

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Eddie G's avatar

Just Peacock. Brutal how many matches that would have been aired on NBC/NBCSN have been pulled to Peacock this campaign. Only one non-Peacock match each day this weekend. But aside from the no match replays drawback to Peacock, I have been pleased with the investment so far (despite it being a bit of a forced one). Streaming quality has been good (watching mostly on laptop though).

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Nick Adams's avatar

My gripe with the move is I cannot understand the rhyme or reason for which games are on NBC/NBCS vs Peacock but perhaps that will become more apparent over time.

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Jeff Leitch's avatar

I just wish they would also have the NBCSN games on Peacock as well.

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Eddie G's avatar

Ryan, any concern with Firmino’s relative lack of attacking output over the past year or so, or not worried given everything else he does vis-a-vis defensive work rate, link-up play, etc?

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Underlying numbers -- xG and xA -- are still about as good as they ever have been. Not worried about him at all.

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Emanuel's avatar

What is Minamino's best position?

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Played mostly as a withdrawn striker/10 -- behind Haaland -- for RBS in the Champions League last year. For Liverpool, the closest thing to that role is the Firmino role.

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Craig Henderson's avatar

Concerns with TAA and Robertson not really getting involved so far in almost 2 games?

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Something to keep an eye on, but not really. The attack has been more than good enough over the first two matches, plus the purchase of Thiago should lighten the load on them a bit anyway.

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Melvin's avatar

Chelsea relying on a 35 year old to fix their defense is certainly ... a choice

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Melvin's avatar

Serious question: what does Lampard see in Mason Mount? .23xG90, .16xA90, 1.6 key passes per 90, doesn't seem to contribute much defensively. That all seems to be squarely meh

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Dan's avatar

He’s English and he tries hard?

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Don't forget the Derby County connection, too.

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Melvin's avatar

Ah, the Ross Barkley role

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Dan's avatar

Barkley and Mount on now. Can one pitch handle so much earnest hard work?

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Emanuel's avatar

At this point, what's Kepa's resale value? 10 million euros??

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

He's, incredibly, still getting called up to the Spain squad, so I feel like he might have some value in Spain. Obviously he's valuable to Bilbao b/c of their Basque-only policy.

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Emanuel's avatar

He did sign a 7-year contract at high-ish wages according to the telegraph. He would probably need to take a huge paycut to go back to Bilbao

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Sebastian Pardo's avatar

Give him back to Athletic Club and give Chelsea a small ownership take

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Avi Tyagi's avatar

Does he even have resale value? Or is he just debt?

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Jonathan's avatar

American Football starting early today

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Yeil Park's avatar

Logging out. This is gonna be a bloodbath

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Melvin's avatar

Kante playing as the forward-most of the midfield 3 was not really what I expected

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Yanal Dhailieh's avatar

Thoughts on the Jota signing?

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Fantastic. Perfect age, and he was really good for a team that didn't have much of the ball and attacked with two or three players. Think he's got the potential to be a long-term starter for the club, and he's such a big immediate upgrade on the other backup attackers.

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Yanal Dhailieh's avatar

Definitely a big upgrade to the backup attackers. If there’s any truth to the Dembele loan rumours that would be the icing on the cake

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Eddie G's avatar

He looked great for Portugal in the recent Nations League fixtures

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Melvin's avatar

Why didn’t they just sign Werner?

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

If you read the details of the deals, they've been able to defer the costs of the full transfer fee with both Thiago and Jota. Guessing that would've not been possible with TW.

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Yeil Park's avatar

Oy vey Kepa

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PabloRV7's avatar

Hope you're feeling better, Ryan!

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Thank you, buddy.

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ike jones's avatar

Doesn’t this feel awfully similar to what City did last year with Fernandinho? Why not resign Lovren? I understand fans didn’t like him, but he’s a quality 4th option. What happens if Fab or Virg get injured? Bring up a kid or go get a real CB...

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Ryan O'Hanlon's avatar

Fabinho is in his physical prime. Fernandinho is, uh, not.

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Emanuel's avatar

Does Liverpool consider Fabinho at this point as their 4th center back? That could mitigate some of their depth problems in that position.

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Eddie G's avatar

Think it's an emergency CB thing; he's so good in defensive midfield you'd hate to see him played out of position with any regularity. Heard that Liverpool have reached out to Schalke re Ozan Kabak in the past week

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Daniel Gray's avatar

Day X: "we want Fabinho to shoot more."

Day X+1: Fabinho starts at center back

...maybe he's the new Steph Curry of the EPL. Dropping buckets from midfield?

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