Last time they played, it was 5-3. Fabinho is at center back. Thiago is on the bench. Mason Mount is … still in the starting eleven. Should be fun, and while I might not be as talkative as normal, I will be here this time around. Feel free to get things started whenever you want, but I’ll be in the chat a few minutes before kickoff.
Yeah. And you figure Thiago has at least equivalent positional sense -- albeit in a new system -- plus the ability to play line-breaking balls. Should be interesting (read: trying to temper excitement over here).
Looks like Lampard realized that Havertz shouldn't be on the wing. Him in the middle and Werner on the left scares me way more if I'm a Liverpool fan (which I am).
All right! That was boring? Thiago came on and halftime and completed 17 more passes than any Chelsea player over 90 minutes. Thanks for everyone who hopped on -- and for all the kind words. We'll do another one soon.
I do think that this second half has been an example of the difference between City and Liverpool. City would be up by more and just pouring on the shots. Liverpool quickly scored twice and then just haven't done that. I'm not sure Liverpool could do what City do, but I definitely think they dial back the pressure once they feel comfortable with a lead. Could come back to bite them at times, but I do think it's a choice.
Illuminating as a reference lens for this City - Wolves game; noticed especially Sterling's positioning in the channel between Boly and Coady. Thanks for sharing, and glad you're on the mend.
I have a theory that the number of touches you take with the sole of your foot is directly correlated with your quality as a midfielder. Thiago proves that I'm right.
The Stats Zone app has everything but xG for Premier League games. FBRef has the most detailed game data, but it doesn't come out until the following day. I have access to some proprietary stuff from Stats Perform. You can get in game stuff from WhoScored, but the site is kind of annoying. And I believe InfoGol has free in-game xG data.
This isn't exactly right, but the value of a first-minute red card is about 1.45 goals. Cut that in half for the Christensen card, then it's worth 0.73 goals. Was the likelihood of Mane scoring from that situation more or less than 73 percent?
I'd say it was less. A penalty is somewhere between .75 and .80 goals and I think this situation is worse than that. Kepa might get there first which is already reducing the probability. Also, Mane is still 25 or 30 yards away from goal and there's a possibility a bad touch brings more Chelsea players back into the play. It's close though.
I feel like the ball was still going a bit too fast, if Kepa didn’t clatter into all of them and create a Red and/or Injury, the ball would kind of gotten away from all of them. Maybe a shade under .73
Having watched a lot of Havertz last season at Leverkusen, would love to see what a nominal 4-2-3-1 with Havertz in the middle of the three behind Werner would look like. Feel like his potential contribution is marginalized being deployed on the right.
Obviously as far as fitness Chelsea don't have the squad for that today - would like to see Pulisic on the left/Ziyech on the right - but I think it's at least an interesting idea. Would be interested to hear what others (especially Chelsea fans) think about this, especially as regards the best partner for Kante in the 2 in front of the back four.
Just Peacock. Brutal how many matches that would have been aired on NBC/NBCSN have been pulled to Peacock this campaign. Only one non-Peacock match each day this weekend. But aside from the no match replays drawback to Peacock, I have been pleased with the investment so far (despite it being a bit of a forced one). Streaming quality has been good (watching mostly on laptop though).
My gripe with the move is I cannot understand the rhyme or reason for which games are on NBC/NBCS vs Peacock but perhaps that will become more apparent over time.
Ryan, any concern with Firmino’s relative lack of attacking output over the past year or so, or not worried given everything else he does vis-a-vis defensive work rate, link-up play, etc?
Played mostly as a withdrawn striker/10 -- behind Haaland -- for RBS in the Champions League last year. For Liverpool, the closest thing to that role is the Firmino role.
Something to keep an eye on, but not really. The attack has been more than good enough over the first two matches, plus the purchase of Thiago should lighten the load on them a bit anyway.
Serious question: what does Lampard see in Mason Mount? .23xG90, .16xA90, 1.6 key passes per 90, doesn't seem to contribute much defensively. That all seems to be squarely meh
He's, incredibly, still getting called up to the Spain squad, so I feel like he might have some value in Spain. Obviously he's valuable to Bilbao b/c of their Basque-only policy.
Fantastic. Perfect age, and he was really good for a team that didn't have much of the ball and attacked with two or three players. Think he's got the potential to be a long-term starter for the club, and he's such a big immediate upgrade on the other backup attackers.
If you read the details of the deals, they've been able to defer the costs of the full transfer fee with both Thiago and Jota. Guessing that would've not been possible with TW.
Doesn’t this feel awfully similar to what City did last year with Fernandinho? Why not resign Lovren? I understand fans didn’t like him, but he’s a quality 4th option. What happens if Fab or Virg get injured? Bring up a kid or go get a real CB...
Think it's an emergency CB thing; he's so good in defensive midfield you'd hate to see him played out of position with any regularity. Heard that Liverpool have reached out to Schalke re Ozan Kabak in the past week
Can't imagine what it's like for Thiago to get to play with his idol, James Milner.
Yeah but Liverpool might not even be able to get Thiago on the field because... *double checks notes* Diogo Jota is playing too well.
I’m the wrong conversation haha
I officially feel really bad for Kepa now.
Not a huge test in the second half, but Fabinho has been fantastic today.
Was really impressed by his work against Werner.
#ThiagoOut
Love to see the hop finally fail
the regression gods have spoken
Does his hair qualify him as a #BaldFraud?
Does he know he's playing for Liverpool and not Leicester?
Thiago's per-90 plus-mins is plus-18.
What about other elite midfielders? How noisy is a stat like that?
Very. Really had to apportion credit since there are so few subs, unlike basketball. People have tried using FIFA ratings -- yep -- to fix that: http://stat.cmu.edu/~fmatano/links/cmsac18_presentation.pdf
The juxtaposition of equations that fly comfortably over my head and the serious use of FIFA ratings in this analysis is brilliant
LFC are a man up in a game they were already controlling pretty aggressively. This is setting up pretty nicely for a Thiago debut, huh?
Guessing Chelsea will now be in a deeper compact block, so perfect game for Thiago. Who comes off though?
Yeah buddy. Who would you replace?
Gini seems like he has the least use -- main skills are positioning and never losing the ball -- in a game where you're a man up.
Yeah. And you figure Thiago has at least equivalent positional sense -- albeit in a new system -- plus the ability to play line-breaking balls. Should be interesting (read: trying to temper excitement over here).
Looks like Lampard realized that Havertz shouldn't be on the wing. Him in the middle and Werner on the left scares me way more if I'm a Liverpool fan (which I am).
Feel like it would be a lot scarier with Pulisic or Ziyech instead of Mount
All right! That was boring? Thiago came on and halftime and completed 17 more passes than any Chelsea player over 90 minutes. Thanks for everyone who hopped on -- and for all the kind words. We'll do another one soon.
Glad you’re feeling a bit better, Ryan. Hope the recovery keeps steady.
I do think that this second half has been an example of the difference between City and Liverpool. City would be up by more and just pouring on the shots. Liverpool quickly scored twice and then just haven't done that. I'm not sure Liverpool could do what City do, but I definitely think they dial back the pressure once they feel comfortable with a lead. Could come back to bite them at times, but I do think it's a choice.
It's happening ... https://twitter.com/LaurensJulien/status/1307718895319609345
When are they rebooting Twilight with my boy Havertz? He's got the textbook complexion and body-type of a tortured vampire
Pretty nerdy piece, but thought this was a good framework to use to watch teams during more advanced build-up play. It was especially stark with Tottenham today -- they have no shape whatsoever -- but it's interesting to see the differences today, too. https://spielverlagerung.com/2020/09/18/analysing-manchester-citys-attack-structural-considerations-and-variations/
“No plan, no shape, just Son” -mou
Illuminating as a reference lens for this City - Wolves game; noticed especially Sterling's positioning in the channel between Boly and Coady. Thanks for sharing, and glad you're on the mend.
Zero shots for Chelsea, 20 minutes in. Based on the games from the other big London clubs this weekend, they're going to win easily.
Chelsea fans/observers: Would you rather have Kepa or Karius?
11 field players?
omg jorginho just died
I have a theory that the number of touches you take with the sole of your foot is directly correlated with your quality as a midfielder. Thiago proves that I'm right.
Incredible ball by Wijnaldum to TAA. Great vision, technique.
Lampard's running a Barkley-Kante two-man midfield for the final 10 minutes. This should be fun.
That was the first pk Alisson has saved for Liverpool.
The journalist in me: This could end 4-0, maybe 5-0. The Liverpool fan: Really need a third goal to feel comfortable.
That's the Lovren pain talking
Up two-zero and up one man is usually when I go with the conserve energy tactic on football manager.
Is Henderson injured? My Peacock (jesus) stopped working for a few minutes.
on broadcast they said hes working his way back into form...nothing specific
Yeah thats what they say on sky
They didn't say that on the broadcast at least
Little stat update at half:
xG: Chelsea 0.5, Liverpool 0.44
Shots (OT): 1 (0), 8 (2)
Final-third passes: 15, 62
Penalty-area passes: 1, 7
That shot by Werner was 0.5 even outside the area?
Whoops, that should say 0.05
What is your go to site for this type of information?
The Stats Zone app has everything but xG for Premier League games. FBRef has the most detailed game data, but it doesn't come out until the following day. I have access to some proprietary stuff from Stats Perform. You can get in game stuff from WhoScored, but the site is kind of annoying. And I believe InfoGol has free in-game xG data.
InfoGol is the one I use the most, so I was just curious. Thank you for the answer <3
This isn't exactly right, but the value of a first-minute red card is about 1.45 goals. Cut that in half for the Christensen card, then it's worth 0.73 goals. Was the likelihood of Mane scoring from that situation more or less than 73 percent?
At what point in the game is it better to take the foul/red card than not?
I'd say it was less. A penalty is somewhere between .75 and .80 goals and I think this situation is worse than that. Kepa might get there first which is already reducing the probability. Also, Mane is still 25 or 30 yards away from goal and there's a possibility a bad touch brings more Chelsea players back into the play. It's close though.
I feel like the ball was still going a bit too fast, if Kepa didn’t clatter into all of them and create a Red and/or Injury, the ball would kind of gotten away from all of them. Maybe a shade under .73
Seems about equal, no? One touch to dribble Kepa, then an open goal
yeah, basically the same chance of converting a penalty. So ... he was fucked either way.
I mean, clearly the better choice is to pull Mane’s shirt back, and hope to get away with a yellow
Red?
Christensen saved Kepa from getting a Red. Hero.
kepa easily would have floundered that w/o tackle too
DOGSO
VAR looking good
The fake fans boooooo
looked pretty bad...
Gotta be
Always appreciate Lee Dixon on comms. This gem from one of yesterday's matches:
Arlo: “Gary Lineker, what happened to him?”
Lee: “I think he’s selling crisps or something”
Predictions, anyone?
2-1 Liverpool
2-2 with a late Liverpool equalizer
2-3, Liverpool
Having watched a lot of Havertz last season at Leverkusen, would love to see what a nominal 4-2-3-1 with Havertz in the middle of the three behind Werner would look like. Feel like his potential contribution is marginalized being deployed on the right.
Obviously as far as fitness Chelsea don't have the squad for that today - would like to see Pulisic on the left/Ziyech on the right - but I think it's at least an interesting idea. Would be interested to hear what others (especially Chelsea fans) think about this, especially as regards the best partner for Kante in the 2 in front of the back four.
Liverpool: The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated
I’d like to revisit your Kepa or Karius question and say, unequivocally, I’d prefer Karius
Pray for Michael, everyone.
Turns out fabinho is the 2nd best CB on Liverpool
No respect for Sepp Van Den Berg.
Did NBC mess this up by putting so many EPL matches on Peacock premium?
Never underestimate a corporation's ability to find new ways to screw over its consumers!
in terms of getting people to sign up for peacock its a pretty good idea imo. i certainly didn't sign up for peacock to watch AP BIO...
How is everyone watching the game? Where is it being aired? Just Peacock?
Just Peacock. Brutal how many matches that would have been aired on NBC/NBCSN have been pulled to Peacock this campaign. Only one non-Peacock match each day this weekend. But aside from the no match replays drawback to Peacock, I have been pleased with the investment so far (despite it being a bit of a forced one). Streaming quality has been good (watching mostly on laptop though).
My gripe with the move is I cannot understand the rhyme or reason for which games are on NBC/NBCS vs Peacock but perhaps that will become more apparent over time.
I just wish they would also have the NBCSN games on Peacock as well.
Ryan, any concern with Firmino’s relative lack of attacking output over the past year or so, or not worried given everything else he does vis-a-vis defensive work rate, link-up play, etc?
Underlying numbers -- xG and xA -- are still about as good as they ever have been. Not worried about him at all.
What is Minamino's best position?
Played mostly as a withdrawn striker/10 -- behind Haaland -- for RBS in the Champions League last year. For Liverpool, the closest thing to that role is the Firmino role.
Concerns with TAA and Robertson not really getting involved so far in almost 2 games?
Something to keep an eye on, but not really. The attack has been more than good enough over the first two matches, plus the purchase of Thiago should lighten the load on them a bit anyway.
Chelsea relying on a 35 year old to fix their defense is certainly ... a choice
Serious question: what does Lampard see in Mason Mount? .23xG90, .16xA90, 1.6 key passes per 90, doesn't seem to contribute much defensively. That all seems to be squarely meh
He’s English and he tries hard?
Don't forget the Derby County connection, too.
Ah, the Ross Barkley role
Barkley and Mount on now. Can one pitch handle so much earnest hard work?
At this point, what's Kepa's resale value? 10 million euros??
He's, incredibly, still getting called up to the Spain squad, so I feel like he might have some value in Spain. Obviously he's valuable to Bilbao b/c of their Basque-only policy.
He did sign a 7-year contract at high-ish wages according to the telegraph. He would probably need to take a huge paycut to go back to Bilbao
Give him back to Athletic Club and give Chelsea a small ownership take
Does he even have resale value? Or is he just debt?
American Football starting early today
Logging out. This is gonna be a bloodbath
Kante playing as the forward-most of the midfield 3 was not really what I expected
Thoughts on the Jota signing?
Fantastic. Perfect age, and he was really good for a team that didn't have much of the ball and attacked with two or three players. Think he's got the potential to be a long-term starter for the club, and he's such a big immediate upgrade on the other backup attackers.
Definitely a big upgrade to the backup attackers. If there’s any truth to the Dembele loan rumours that would be the icing on the cake
He looked great for Portugal in the recent Nations League fixtures
Why didn’t they just sign Werner?
If you read the details of the deals, they've been able to defer the costs of the full transfer fee with both Thiago and Jota. Guessing that would've not been possible with TW.
Oy vey Kepa
Hope you're feeling better, Ryan!
Thank you, buddy.
Doesn’t this feel awfully similar to what City did last year with Fernandinho? Why not resign Lovren? I understand fans didn’t like him, but he’s a quality 4th option. What happens if Fab or Virg get injured? Bring up a kid or go get a real CB...
Fabinho is in his physical prime. Fernandinho is, uh, not.
Does Liverpool consider Fabinho at this point as their 4th center back? That could mitigate some of their depth problems in that position.
Think it's an emergency CB thing; he's so good in defensive midfield you'd hate to see him played out of position with any regularity. Heard that Liverpool have reached out to Schalke re Ozan Kabak in the past week
Day X: "we want Fabinho to shoot more."
Day X+1: Fabinho starts at center back
...maybe he's the new Steph Curry of the EPL. Dropping buckets from midfield?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiApb3r3RfM